Elon University Poll: Economy to play strong role in '08 elections
North Carolina citizens cite the economy as the most important issue
facing the state and say it will strongly influence how they vote in
the upcoming presidential, congressional and gubernatorial elections,
according to the latest Elon University Poll.
The poll, conducted Feb. 18-21 by the Elon University Institute for
Politics and Public Affairs, surveyed 764 North Carolina residents.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent and is
weighted by gender. The sample is of the population in general and does
not restrict respondents by their voter eligibility or their likelihood
of voting in an election.
“Seeing the economy become so pronounced in such a short time indicates
true concern among citizens about their personal financial well-being,”
said Hunter Bacot, director of the Elon University Poll. “As people
begin to feel the direct effects of the poor economy, pocketbook issues
may become their primary concern in the voting booth.”
The poll found that in the upcoming May primary elections for North
Carolina, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama holds a double-digit lead over New
York Sen. Hilary Rodham Clinton, his rival on the Democratic ticket for
president.
Barack Obama: 45 percent
Hillary Clinton: 31 percent
Too early to tell / don’t know: 22 percent
On the Republican ticket, Arizona Sen. John McCain has more than double
the support among citizens than former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee.
Respondents indicated little support for Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas.
John McCain: 62 percent
Mike Huckabee: 24 percent
Ron Paul: 3 percent
Too early to tell / don’t know: 10 percent
North Carolinians remain divided over which party to support in the
2008 presidential election, with 40 percent planning to support the
Democratic Party and 35 percent indicating they will support the
Republican Party. Twenty-one percent of citizens believe it is too
early to tell or do not know which party they will support.
Respondents listed the following as the most important issues facing the state:
Economy: 29 percent
Education: 12 percent
Environment/Energy (including the drought): 10 percent
Taxes: 7 percent
Immigration: 7 percent
Public assistance/Medicaid or Medicare: 6 percent
The Elon poll shows that some issues have a more pronounced effect on a
national level than they do on a state level when it comes to choosing
candidates for the upcoming elections. For example, while 53 percent
said the economy will influence their vote for governor, 70 percent
said it will effect how they vote in the presidential election.
Transportation and education have a larger impact on the vote for
governor than they do for presidential choices.
Respondents were also split on which party to support in the North
Carolina gubernatorial contest, as 36 percent back the Democratic Party
and 31 percent favor the Republican Party. Thirty-two percent said it
is too early to tell or that they do not know which party to support.
Among those who support the Democratic Party:
Beverly Perdue: 40 percent
Richard Moore: 28 percent
Too early to tell / don’t know: 32 percent
Among those who support the Republican Party:
Pat McCrory: 28 percent
Fred Smith: 12 percent
Bill Graham: 10 percent
Bob Orr: 6 percent.
Too early to tell / don’t know: 44 percent
