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Survey Methodology The Elon University Poll is conducted using a stratified random sample of households with telephones in the population of interest – in most cases this refers to citizens in the State of North Carolina. The sample of telephone numbers for the survey is obtained from Survey Sampling International, LLC. Selection of Households To equalize the probability of telephone selection, sample telephone numbers are systematically stratified according to subpopulation strata (e.g., a zip code, a county, a state, etc.), which yields a sample from telephone exchanges in proportion to each exchange's share of telephone households in the population of interest. Estimates of telephone households in the population of interest are generally obtained from several databases. Samples of telephone numbers are distributed across all eligible blocks of numbers in proportion to the density of listed households assigned in the population of interest (and according to any specified subpopulation stratum if requested). Upon determining the projected (or preferred) sample size, a sampling interval is calculated by summing the number of listed residential numbers in each eligible block within the population of interest and dividing that sum by the number of sampling points assigned to the population. From a random start between zero and the sampling interval, blocks are systematically selected in proportion to the density of listed household "working blocks." A block (also known as a bank) is a set of contiguous numbers identified by the first two digits of the last four digits of a telephone number. A working block contains three or more working telephone numbers. Exchanges are assigned to a population on the basis of all eligible blocks in proportion to the density of working telephone households. Once each population's proportion of telephone households is determined, then a sampling interval, based on that proportion, is calculated and specific exchanges and numbers are randomly selected. A random sample is achieved by ensuring that each unit in the population of interest has an equal probability of being selected for inclusion in the sample. Because exchanges and numbers are randomly selected by the computer, unlisted as well as listed telephone numbers are included in the sample. Thus, the sample of telephone numbers generated for the population of interest constitutes a random sample of telephone households of the population, stratified by exchange. Procedures Used for Conducting the Poll The Elon University Poll is generally conducted Monday through Thursday; calls are made from 5:00 pm to 9:00 pm EST. The Elon University Poll uses CATI system software (computer assisted telephone interviewing) in the administration of surveys. For each working telephone number in the sample, several attempts are made to reach the household. Only individuals in households 18 years or older were interviewed; those reached at business or work numbers are not interviewed. Interviews are generally completed with 500 or more adults from households in North Carolina. For sample sizes of 500, there is a 95 percent probability that our survey results are within plus or minus 4.47 percent (the margin of error) of the actual population distribution for any given question. The margin of error is based, of course, on the sample size, thus, larger sample sizes yield smaller margins of error; for example, the margin of error for a sample size of 550 is +/- 4.26 and for a sample size of 600, the margin of error is +/- 4.08. For sub-samples, the margin of error is higher depending on the size of the subsample. When we use a subsample, we identify these results as being from a subsample and provide the total number of respondents and margin of error for that subsample. In reporting our results, we note any use of a subsample where applicable. Questions and Question Order The Elon University Poll provides the questions as worded and the order in which these questions are administered (to respondents). Conspicuous in reviewing some questions is the “bracketed” information. Information contained within brackets ( [ ] ) denotes response options as provided in the question; this bracketed information is rotated per question to ensure that respondents do not receive a set order of response options presented to them, which also maintains question construction integrity by avoiding respondent acquiescence based on question composition. Some response options appearing in tables include a “missing” category. Sometimes responses are considered “missing” when, for a variety of reasons, respondents are not qualified to respond to a particular question or set of questions (a “skip” maneuver or “screening” technique is employed), or simply terminate the interview upon completing an acceptable proportion of the survey instrument (with the acceptable proportion completed being based on polling protocol). Some questions use a probe maneuver to determine a respondent’s intensity of perspective. Probe techniques used in this questionnaire mainly consist of asking a respondent if their response is more intense than initially provided. For example, upon indicating whether s/he is satisfied or dissatisfied, we asked the respondent “would you say you are ‘very ‘”. This technique is employed in some questions as opposed to specifying the full range of choices in the question. Though specifying the full range of options in questions is a commonly accepted practice in survey research, we sometimes prefer that the respondent determine whether their perspective is stronger or more intense for which the probe technique used. Another method for acquiring information from respondents is to ask an “open-ended” question. The open-ended question is a question for which no response options are provided, i.e., it is entirely up to the respondent to provide the response information. The Elon University Poll The Elon University Poll is conducted under the auspices of the Center for Public Opinion Polling (Hunter Bacot, Director), which is a constituent part of the Institute for Politics and Public Affairs (George Taylor, Director); both these organizations are housed in the department of political science at Elon University. These academic units are part of Elon College, the College of Arts and Sciences at Elon University, which is under the direction of Dr. Steven House (Dean). The Elon University administration, led by Dr. Leo Lambert, President of the university, fully supports the Elon University Poll as part of its service commitment to state, regional, and national constituents. The Elon University Poll is directed by Dr. Hunter Bacot, a professor in the department of political science. The survey is administered by Elon University students as part of the University’s commitment to experiential learning where “students learn through doing.” | |
