Cook predicts Democrats
Misdirection among reasons for shift in political
majority Parker McAllister/ Reporter
Dr. Charlie Cook, a non-partisan political reporting guru,
visited Elon on Sept. 7 and delivered a presentation with his
predictions for the upcoming midterm election, as well as for
the 2008 elections. Cook believes the Democrats will
win the midterm elections, and he delivered four reasons
why.
Cook said the 2006 midterm elections are usually fairly
predictable.
“When sizing up an upcoming election, people usually
look at voting patterns – who’s got the
incumbency, the better campaign, the better candidate and the
most money,” he said. “However, one out of every
five elections is out of the usual.”
“This election is that one out the five, which means
that the laws of political gravity are
suspended.”
Students found Cook’s views toward the upcoming
elections stimulating, and many admitted they had not
previously thought of Cook’s theory.
“It is interesting to see that in a ‘wave’
election, as Cook described this cycle, that there is no real
predicting results because well funded, well qualified and
good candidates are more apt to lose to the inferior
candidate,” senior Garrett Kachellek said. “But,
I believe that this could also be
cause in a wave stronger candidates due to momentum leading
into the election cycle.”
Cook explained the four essential questions to ask when
figuring out what will happen in the next election.
The first question Americans must answer is to consider if
the country is heading in the right or wrong direction.
According to The Cook Political Poll, 26 percent believe that
the country is heading in the right direction, while 64
percent believe that it is not. He noted that this means the
Republicans will assuredly be on the defensive.
Second, Americans must look at the approval rating of
Congress. If the approval rating for Congress is around 40
percent, there will be a normal election with around four
seats changing. If it is below 40 percent, then up to 26
seats can change. According to the current polls, the
approval of Congress is well below 40 percent.
Third, Americans should consider which party they would
rather see as the majority in Congress – Republicans or
Democrats? Or, which party would you like to see
as the majority? Last Thursday, CNN had Democrats up 10
percent, and Fox News showed Democrats at a 16 percent
advantage over Republicans.
Fourth, what is the approval rating for the president? Last
Thursday, the Fox polls indicated that the U.S. gives George
Bush a 38 percent approval rating and the CBS polls gave him
a 36 percent approval rating. This is not good for the
Republicans. In 1994, after the Monica Lewinsky scandal
occurred, Bill Clinton’s lowest approval rating was 39
percent. The same year, the Republicans took over the House
and the Senate.
“I like how he incorporated evidence from his own
polls,” said junior Elizabeth Evans. “He did not
fully rely on the Gallop, CNN, and Fox News surveys; rather,
his polls included questions concerning issues that he feels
are relevant to the current state of national
politics,” she said.
According to Cook, the answers to these questions indicate
the Democrats will take back the House and gain three or more
seats in the Senate. He often compared the upcoming mid-term
election to the 1994 mid-term elections during Bill
Clinton’s presidency.
As for the 2008 presidential elections, Cook made it clear
that at this moment there is no significant evidence pointing
to the winner or even to who the candidates will be for the
Republican and Democrat parties.
Contact Parker McAllister at pendulum@elon.edu or
278-7247. | 
