Name of Predictor
This database
uses the most formal regularly utilized form of the
predictors' names (i.e. Vinton Cerf, rather than
Vint Cerf). Some of the database predictions were made
by a group of two, three or four researchers; in these
cases, a lead name and some or all of the additional
names are listed - database fields included names of a
second and/or third predictor. Some predictions were
made by an anonymous person or a group representing a
foundation or organization in a position paper, book,
etc. that does not identify an author. For these, the
predictor may be listed simply as "expert" or
as a group title such as "Benton Foundation."
In some cases, the predictor may have been writing
under a pseudonym; we include the "real"
names with those whose pseudonyms we were able to
trace. Please note that we have meticulously recorded
predictions in the way they were reported; understand
that predictors can be misquoted or taken out of
context in a report. In other words, most of these
predictions have been mediated by writers, reporters
and/or editors. When you study what a predictor is
reported to have said, remember the layers of mediation
involved in getting that message out to the world. Some
of the predictions in this database were not mediated
in any way - for instance, they may be taken directly
from videotaped discussions or postings made by these
individuals on the Internet with no mediation
involved. Topics
The predictions are categorized by topic and subtopic.
The eight topic categories are: - Communication
- Community/Culture
- Controversial Issues
- Economic Structures
- General, Overarching
Remarks
- Getting Information
- Global
Relationships/Politics
- Information
Infrastructure
In the sorting process completed
in the preparation of this database, predictions were
often found to fit appropriately in multiple
categories. In these cases, they were filed in the area
of the database that seemed most appropriate. Subtopics
This database has
been catalogued by dividing content into eight
different topic fields. Seven of these fields are also
divided into seven or more subtopic fields. The initial
categories and groupings used during the search for
items to place in the database were derived from
internet-based Q sorts for an earlier study by Elon
University professors Byung Lee and Janna Quitney
Anderson and from the research study "Forecasting
the Internet: A Retrospective Technology
Assessment," completed by Elon University's
Constance Book under a grant from the Pew Internet
& American Life Project in 2002. They were modified
after the predictions were logged in order to better
categorize the eventual findings of this predictions
study. The predictions in the "General,
Overarching Remarks" category stand as one large
group, with no subcategories. The other seven topics
are broken into subtopic areas based on their content.
Some of the more generalized predictions could easily
have fit in more than one of the subtopic areas; in
these cases, they were filed in the area of the
database that seemed most appropriate. Following are
the subtopic categories: - Communication- E-mail; Internet Telephony;
Security/Encryption; Video Conferencing;
Viruses/Worms; Wireless Technologies; General.
- Community/Culture- Cyberpunks/Hackers;
Ethics/Values; Human-Machine Interaction; Information
Overload; MOOs/MUDs/Bulletin Boards/Newsgroups;
Relationships; Social Withdrawal/Addiction; Virtual
Communities; General.
- Controversial
Issues-
Anonymity/Personal Identity; Censorship/Free Speech;
Copyright/Intellectual Property/Plagiarism;
Crime/Fraud/Terrorism; Defamation/Libel; Digital
Divide; Jurisdiction/Control; Privacy/Surveillance;
Pornography; General.
- Economic
Structures-
E-cash; E-commerce; Employment; Gambling;
Microtransactions; Shopping; Telecommuting; Tax
Issues; General.
- Getting
Information-
Advertising/Public Relations; Crisis Management;
Databases/Libraries; E-learning; Gaming; Intelligent
Agents/Artificial Intelligence; Journalism/Media;
Medical/Professional; Music; Newspapers; Publishing;
TV/Films/Video; Virtual Reality; General.
- Global
Relationships/Politics- Campaigns/Voting; Creating a Smaller
World; Democracy; Government; Peacekeeping/Warfare;
Third-World Nations; General.
- Information
Infrastructure-
Bandwidth; Cost/Pricing; Internet Appliances;
Internet Service Providers;
Language/Interface/Software; Number of Users; Open
Access; Pipeline/Switching/Hardware; Protocols; Role
of Govt./Industry; Universal Service; Wireless
Technologies; General.
Area of Expertise
Each predictor
included in the database is sorted into a category
describing his or her background. Some predictors could
possibly fit in more than one of these categories; each
was listed in what appeared to be the one category that
best describes the dominant label for that person in
the early 1990s. For instance, from 1990 to 1995
Nicholas Negroponte was a researcher, an administrator,
an author, an illuminator, a futurist, a consultant and
much, much more. He was sorted into the
Pioneer/Originator category due to his digital
evangelism, his co-founding of MIT's Media Lab, and
his key support for the lift-off of Wired magazine. It
should also be noted that the "expertise"
category is a mix. A person who is classified in the
researcher/illuminator category may not be a
researcher, but an illuminator. A person in the
technology developer/administrator category may not
develop technology, but that person may be an
administrator of a technology group or support group.
The categories are built this way to be more adaptable
and descriptive. They were determined based on a
four-week book- and internet-based content search for
the names and descriptions of internet luminaries of
the early 1990s. The classifications are subjective
decisions made by individual coders and verified by
only one other individual. The "expertise"
categories are: - Advocate/Voice of the
People
- Entrepreneur/Business
Leader
- Futurist/Consultant
- Author/Editor/Journalist
- Legislator/Politician/Lawyer
- Pioneer/Originator
- Research
Scientist/Illuminator
- Technology
Developer/Administrator
Date of Prediction and
Date of Publication
The time
parameters for the database are Jan. 1, 1990, through
Dec. 31, 1995. In 1990, Tim Berners-Lee developed the
idea of his "World-Wide Web" and wrote the
HTML source code. In 1995, U.S. government
"ownership" of the U.S. internet ended,
making way for commercial and consumer use to explode.
1995 was also the year in which Netscape Mosaic, the
revolutionary internet browser, went public. These
years are the database bookends - the statements
included in the database had to be spoken or published
sometime within that span of time. Statements that were
not dated clearly were not included. Page/URL
Location
In the process of gathering information to include in
the database, the internet locations of the original
documents found online were recorded in all situations
in which it was possible to do so. These are included
in the database, but the links may change or disappear
over time. Thus, eventually, some of them will no
longer be effective links to the original documents.
Book and other publication page numbers are listed
where appropriate. Medium (in Which
Prediction was Made)
Choices here include: - Book
- Business Memo
- E-mail
- E-zine
- Film/Video
- Foundation Report
- Government Report
- Industry Report
- Internet Site
- Magazine (consumer)
- Magazine (professional)
- Newsletter (print)
- Newspaper (print)
- Online Book or E-book
- Online Chat/Newsgroup
Discussion
- Online Newsletter
- Online Journal
- Professional Journal
(print)
- Research
Paper/Presentation
- Speech
- TV/Radio Broadcast
- Wire Service (AP, Business Wire,
etc.)
Publication (in Which
Prediction was Made)
The formal title of each publication is recorded here,
thus making it easy to single out and study predictions
made in articles from Wired, the New York Times, or in
the books "Being Digital," "The Road
Ahead," etc. Article/Chapter
Title
The precise title, headline or name of each article,
speech or conference presentation is included in this
database field. Author of
Article/Book
The name of the writer of a source article or book or
whatever is included in this Predictions Database
field. If the article, book, etc. was written/produced
by the predictor, then it carries that name. Much of
the material was written/produced by other authors;
those names are here. If the author was a group entity
- for instance in a report with no one specific author
published by the National Science Foundation, the name
of the group (National Science Foundation) is entered
in this field. Prediction
A PREDICTION is a foretelling - positive or
negative - of things to come; an educated guess at what
yet may come to pass. This database includes statements
about what is likely to unfold in the future. In the
process of including context, the database
"prediction" listings also may carry
background detail about things that were taking place
at the time and things that had already come to
pass. Cataloguer's I.D.
Code
This data is not included in the online version of the
database. It is housed with the archived hard copies of
predictions database materials. Every researcher on the
Predictions Team was assigned a code set consisting of
the person's three personal initials followed by
the four-digit number of the prediction the person
filed. For instance, Janna Quitney Anderson is JQA. The
first prediction she filed is JQA-0001. In addition to
being numbered in this way in the URL of the online
database, it is numbered on a corresponding hard copy
of the original article, kept at Elon University in the
Elon/Pew Predictions Database Archive. The original
documents that gave birth to this database are housed
in the archive. Using the
Database
This database illuminates the internet ideas and
issues of the first half of the 1990s. We encourage you
to use it as a base of exploration for newly generated
articles, speeches and research. We ask that you please
credit the Elon/Pew's Imagining the Internet
site if you make use of any of the collected
materials. |
