obile internet, both on cellphones and
wifi. GPS and other services in cars. Online search
capabilities, i.e., Googlization. Net-centric warfare,
i.e., uses by the military on the ground. Pervasive
impact of email and instant messaging in our daily
routines. Political organizing and coordinating by
internet. - Charlie Firestone, The Aspen Institute,
(this organization works to promote non-partisan
ree services. Ten years ago I would
never have predicted that Yahoo would give away all the
stuff it does. All those features were business models,
once upon a time. - Fred Hapgood, Output
he rise of P2P networks exploded more
quickly than I expected. - Andy Opel, Florida State
nline gambling. - Simson Garfinkel,
cceleration of market forces. -
Douglas Rushkoff, author/New York University
Interactive Telecommunications Program
ews media. - Peter M. Shane, Moritz
College of Law, Ohio State University
never would have expected that such a
high percentage of people would be utterly dependent
upon the internet for such a large proportion of their
daily communication activities. If you took it away, we
would be shell-shocked. But ten years ago, we
didn't even have it! - Gary Bachula,
xtent and magnitude of adoption. Rise of
new industries and businesses. Computing becoming a
household word and concept. - Peter Denning, Naval
Postgraduate School, Monterey, Calif., columnist for
Communications of the ACM
ork at home via attachments. Widespread
networking via email and IM, for both community and
work. - Barry Wellman, University of
onsolidation and advertising growth.
- Mike Kelly, America Online
-commerce - who would have predicted
that Amazon would be the first successful e-tailer?
Online auctions. Travel services. All deployed faster
than I would have guessed, driven in large measure by
consumer willingness to use credit cards online. Online
dating services have been kind of a surprise to me, as
well. - J. Scott Marcus, Federal Communications
usic sharing. Hope in politics.
Customer-to-customer conversation subverting marketing.
- David Weinberger, Evident Marketing
lobalization of internet access and use.
- Bill Eager, internet expert
he assumption, by the wired
intelligentsia, that they can find out pretty much
anything on Google. - Dan Froomkin,
olitical impacts, primarily due to
blogging, have happened more quickly and more intensely
than I expected. The prospect of everyone with a
computer and an internet connection becoming a
publisher has been swifter and more pervasive than I
expected. The adoption of internet technologies by
government agencies has been quicker than I
anticipated. The slow death of newspapers has not been
as slow as I had hoped. - Lois C. Ambash, Metaforix
he ubiquity of the Internet in daily
life - from making travel reservations to looking up
movie times. The dependence on the Internet to do
virtually every activity was unforeseen by me. -
Ted Eytan, MD, Group Health Cooperative
he emergence of digital media channels,
and the use of the Internet as an entertainment medium.
- Brenda Hodgson, Hill & Knowlton
doption of online commerce by businesses
has happened more quickly than I had imagined. -
Gary Kreps, George Mason University
ts impact on information exchange; I did
not expect so much information (from the mundane to the
highly technical) to be online and so freely
accessible. - David Tewksbury, University of
Illinois at Champaign-Urbana
he embedding of the Net into the very
fabric of life, at least for those who are connected,
has been more dramatic than I'd expected so fast.
- Dan Gillmor, technology columnist, San Jose
Mercury News, author of "We, The Media"
never expected it to have the kind of
penetration it does now. By 1994, I was already
predicting that the internet would follow the same path
other technologies did, and that there would be a
consolidation of producers. I've been surprised by
the number of people who produce their own content for
the web, and by the degree to which peer-to-peer
communication occurs. - A. Halavais, State
University of New York at Buffalo
reater penetration to remote parts of
the world, and adoption in places where access is
limited. - Joshua Fouts, executive director, USC
Center on Public Diplomacy
pollution. - Louis Pouzin, internet pioneer:
inventor of "Datagram" networking and
designer of the Cyclades network; a formulator of the
groundwork for contemporary networks
he transformation of intellectual
property is, I think, already a done deal - it will
just take a little while for our laws and policies to
catch up. And as a social phenomenon, people have very
quickly acculturated to the concept of 24/7 information
availability. - Alexandra Samuel, Harvard
University/Cairns Project (New York Law School)
P phones. PDA and wireless applications.
- Liz Rykert, Meta Strategies Inc., Toronto,
he e-mail-system has turned out to be a
lot more useful, than I expected allowing instant
communication with research fellows abroad. It has also
been extremely useful to be able to access libraries
and other knowledge banks from distance. - Kirsten
Mogensen, Roskilde University, Denmark
es, the internet saves time and makes
communications easy, but the increased communications
resulting from the internet means that more time is
devoted to it. - David M. Scott, Freshspot
would never have imagined blogs, or that
I would have one of my own. On the other hand, I spend
much more time doing fairly routine work (such as
scheduling meetings) online. The nuisances, like spam,
viruses, and comment spam, are worse than I would have
predicted. - Peter Levine, University of
he pace of criminal exploitation; once
there were sufficient pickings for the Internet to be
taken seriously as a source of revenue. - Philip
Virgo, secretary general, EURIM - UK-based Parliament
Industry Group/IMIS - UK-based professional body for
management of information systems
am amazed at the spread and rate of
access. I think everyone is. We are discovering that
virtually everyone coming to college has access, is
adept. Most faculty have scarcely begun to take
advantage of that - may not be able to, in fact, may
have to wait for the next generation to do that. But
the students are already there, online; access is
already approaching the saturation point, and that
raises critical questions about what happens then.
- George Otte, technology expert
t may sound silly, but the shopping
power of the net has changed how I do business. It has
really been a real time saver for me, and I think for
many women. - Arlene Morgan, Columbia Graduate
School of Journalism
olitical activism has been striking.
Disenfranchisement of mainstream media is happening
more quickly than I would have though. - Jan
Schaffer, J-Lab: The Institute for Interactive
he rise of Weblogs as influencers in the
media and public. - Mark Glaser, Online Journalism
Review/Online Publishers Association
he movement of the Internet into
wireless and cellular communications; the prosperity of
companies like eBay and Amazon; and the use of the
Internet for free search: Google. - William B.
Pickett, Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology
he decline in national television
audiences for broadcast news is more rapid than I
expected. - Janice Castro, assistant dean,
director, graduate journalism programs, Northwestern
he spread of rich media has exceeded my
expectations, as has the quality and availability of
wireless Internet service. I am sitting in front of my
TV with my wireless-enabled laptop tapping this out at
my leisure, without having to be secluded in my lonely
basement office with my desktop computer. Earlier
tonight, I checked in and watched a segment of NOW with
Bill Moyers that I missed when it aired on TV, and the
video quality, though coming through on a picture frame
that probably measured only three inches by three
inches, was great, as was the sound. So the
distribution of quality wireless audio and video has
exceeded my expectations. - Kevin Featherly, news
editor, Healthcare Informatics
hose affecting daily activities (such as
buying books, music, shopping for travel, checking the
weather, getting driving directions). - Douglas
Levin, policy analyst, Cable in the
he re-arrangement of priorities in the
media industries, and the high level of confusion there
has been happening pretty fast. And the success of open
software as a technology and as a movement has been a
happy surprise for me; never would have expected it ten
years ago. - Tom Streeter, University of
he expansion of wireless access has made
the Internet far more pervasive that I could have ever
imagined. It's not about going to a computer in the
home or office. It's about checking e-mail or
driving directions while waiting for a cab on the
sidewalk. - Allen Fuller,
veryday people have embraced technology
faster than I expected - not just technology buffs or
white-collar workers. - Dan Ness,
never expected to experience the dreaded
feeling of isolation that overwhelms me if my Internet
connection (particularly email) is down for more than
half a day. - Peter W. Van Ness, Van Ness
he use of e-mail, and the way it has
radically changed the workplace. I can now do most of
my job via a networked PC, and send and receive e-mails
on the move (via Blackberry ... an amazing device!).
Just a decade ago I was still writing paper memos and
reports. Yes, face to face communications are vitally
important, but the productivity gains from being able
to "copy in" colleagues, and forward ideas,
are incalculable. - Graham Lovelace, Lovelacemedia
he radical change and acceptance in the
way we live and work. - Tiffany Shlain, The Webby
he Boomers are on board. They're
using it and loving it. Who predicted their 70-year-old
mother would buy an iMac, then learn to use it so she
could get pics of her granddaughter by email? If it
gives them an emotional payback, they'll make the
investment in time and resources. - Meg Houston
Maker, user experience designer
And the following are from predictors who
chose to remain anonymous: [Workplaces of respondents
whose reactions are listed below include the Mayo
Clinic, IBM, Intel, AT&T, Oracle, Internet2, Athena
Alliance, MIT, Microsoft, University of Pennsylvania,
RAND, Portland State University, FCC, Slippery Rock
University, University of Maryland, Global Village,
UCLA, Gartner, Disney, New America Foundation, Proteus
Foundation, Media General, Knight Foundation, U.S.
General Services Administration, USC Digital Future
Project, Morino Institute, Mobile Data Institute, AOL,
Center for American Progress, Purdue University, USA
Today, FAA, University of Nebraska at Lincoln, Google,
blue research, Civic Interactive Networks, American
Museum of Natural History, MoveOn.org, Open Society
Institute, Center for Democracy and Technology, MSNBC,
CNN and others.]
The rise of the Web is astonishing. In 1992 (I have
slides from a talk that year) we were not sure that the
Web would win out over competitors such as WAIS, archie
or gopher. The transformation of the telephone industry
has gone faster than I thought.
Bandwidth increased more than my pessimistic
projection due to competition. However, I predicted
that this was the only way to get the higher
Web logs and peer-to-peer networks.
Organized Crime has embraced the Internet much more
rapidly than I had envisaged. This has resulted in the
proliferation of spam, viruses, worms, pornography,
etc. Overall, the younger generation has embraced
online technology more rapidly than I
Online auction and online sales is much further
The alternative media - illegal
file downloaders, bloggers challenging CBS or Trent
Lott. Dissonance always has a place in American
society, but as people try to control all aspects of a
culture, be it entertainment or journalism, the
internet can more easily spark an opposition and have
it spread almost uncontrollably.
The pervasiveness and use of email as a frequent
substitute for telephone; high quality
"smart" searching does a better job than I
had expected, making all sorts of information available
without going to a library or calling a government
The complete ubiquity of spam (I
now filter out about 95% of my email to a spam bucket
just to get to the emails sent to me by people I know
or those who need to contact me for bonafide reasons);
The wildfire-like spread of personal publishing via
easy-to-use blogging software; the influence of
political blogging on public opinion; The swift-rise of
social-network models for creating, disseminating and
selling culture (e.g. music file-sharing, resource
sites such as http://istockphoto.com and art
communities such as http://deviantart.com).
Commercialization, commodification in general was
something I never expected at this scale. I was a
doubter of online auctions as well, but am now an avid
P2P file sharing, especially music; ubiquity of search
engines; spam; easy-to-use viruses; other hacking
The way we have become dependent on the internet as an
information resource and on email as an interactive
The digitization of media and its impact on copyright
and many businesses snuck up on me.
Mostly in the form of entertainment and information
available, especially to scholars.
The quality and quantity of information in all fields
available via the internet.
People's ability to find precise information
quickly and accurately is one of the reasons for
productivity growth. This has happened more quickly
than I expected and seems likely to continue more
quickly than economists expect.
My work has been transformed by the internet: the
magazine I edit couldn't exist if it weren't
for the internet and couldn't publish the range of
content and contributors it does with the internet.
It's had a huge impact on work life. I now spend
my day in front of the computer using the Internet and
most of my colleagues at my think tank do the
The Web has really transformed the Internet - I
couldn't have foreseen that 10 years ago.
EVERYBODY uses e-mail. The biggest surprise is its
adoption by senior citizens.
E-mail was expected. The Web took us completely by
Copyright and intellectual property battles have
emerged much faster than I would have predicted, and
seem to be biased in favor of copyright holders
(something I would not have predicted).
Copyright issues and fair use.
The revolution in content distribution. The potential
was obvious, but I felt resistance by the "powers
that be" (RIAA, etc) would be more effective.
Their moronic handling of the file-sharing dilemma
accelerated the growth of P2P.
Changing of business models such as music/CDs and the
jones felt by users when the internet is
Communications among family members of all ages,
relationships and generations. Changing the dynamics of
education, at both high school and college levels.
I'm surprised at how quickly ecommerce has taken
off. The social habit of shopping is being discarded
much more quickly than I thought it might. It probably
has to do with time poverty and convenience.
Its ubiquity has grown faster than I expected.
Its influence in the supplying industries and the rate
of change in the supply industry.
Those astute in the use of the new tools have made
huge leaps in their daily lives, in their understanding
of the world, even in their financial fortune. It is
the dawn of a new era.
Connectivity. The rise of IMs and enhanced e-mail has
helped people connect. Gaming has affected the ways we
look at entertainment - accelerated the shift toward
Email has come to dominate daily life in a way I'd
never have imagined.
As a tool to conduct transactions
and as a pipeline for global trade; the integration
with PDA's; the reliance as a communications tool;
the transition to getting children to learn computing
at younger and younger ages.
Voice over IP seems to be catching on quite quickly.
The effect on the quality of film and television
(downward trend in production standards) has been
striking. The Internet is partly responsible.
Ability to buy groceries without ever talking to a
stranger or driving. (Did I mention I am an
High-speed internet has allowed huge attachments of
files - beyond what was anticipated.
Worrying about virus invasions.
Commercial necessity of the Internet.
The incredible abundance of information of any
quality. Certainly humans can comprehend and assimilate
only a finite quantity, and there does not seem to be a
limit in sight. That begs the question: is too much
unfiltered information really desirable?
The successful chilling effect of insane protectionist
Hijacking the net with porn and other dubious
E-mail has changed our lives - communication is now
instant and written.
Acceptance of technology has been quicker than I would
have thought. Integration of hardware/software into
daily routines has occurred at a much higher level than
I thought it would.
Extent to which print media adapted to the new format.
Connectivity - IM.
Mobile telephones, PCs, and the Internet have
untethered computation from the desktop and colonized
all parts of our lives faster than I had
The drive for personal rather than work related need
for equipment - new computers, printers, mobile devices
- continues to surprise me. The unquestioned assumption
of access, availability, being on the 7/24 clock also
surprises me. Even though the seeds of this were there
10 years ago, the 'channel switching' needed to
handle multiple roles and multiple social worlds all
through the same devices is increasing much faster than
Commercialization and the exiling of the wonderful
geek culture far into the sidelines.
The deep penetration of email into every facet of
The ability of the bad guys - see Osama and his ilk -
of using the Internet as a soapbox.
The surge to online usage in the mid- to late-1990s
clearly spiked and came faster than envisioned.
Access to more information than expected. Search
tools. Comparative tools. Advertising and spam - both
worse than feared.
Communication via the Internet - whether peer-to-peer
or peer-to-many, B-B, or B-C - has become a default for
Spam is everywhere. I had no idea of the size of the
Spam problem. I am also surprised about the lack of a
firm response on this issue. I also underestimated the
magnitude of the security and virus problems that
people have encountered. This is probably because I
work on a Macintosh rather than on Windows.
Government has more functioning web sites that provide
useful information, but we still have a long way to
It's become a major mass-advertising and retail
medium. I probably would have predicted that B-to-B
would grow more first.
Changes in distribution of news have been quicker or
more extensive than I had thought possible. Most folk
that I talk with get their breaking news on the
Internet and read newspapers and magazines for analysis
of that news. Television is virtually out of the
picture except for documentaries.
I underestimated its take-up by lay users.
I did not expect that file sharing would take off so
dramatically. I did not expect that blogging, the
independent journalist, would attract so much
Cellphone use in entrepreneurial and personal
communications in underdeveloped nations - very
heartened by tales from the trenches from efforts such
as at www.digitaldividends.org.
I underestimated its monstrous effect on political
Change to the work environment - reliance and
predominance of email in communications.
The electronic nature of so many relationships is
surprising (and not unwelcome) to me. Even now, you can
The closure of small used bookstores.
Social exclusion. So few of the world's population
are part of the internet, and 1/3 of Americans are not.
There seems to be no real enthusiasm or plan to do
something about this.
E-commerce. Despite the dot-com bust, it is becoming
hard to find even small businesses without a Web
presence, and the number of them with e-stores is
The increase and bursting of the .com bubble happened
relatively more quickly - people should have had more
realistic expectations that when you are significantly
challenging so many societal norms (vertical to
horizontal, rewriting intellectual property rules) that
it will take some time. No one was prepared for the
speed of re-pricing (commoditization) of info I
The prevalence of online shopping for all kinds of
The dot-com boom made online financial transactions
and web-based transactions everywhere is more standard
than I would have expected.
I am surprised by how the internet has cut across
generations, meaning my parents are using it (perhaps
not as widely) as are a number of individuals in the 70
The explosion of the Web, providing a common interface
not controlled (yet) by any one organization.
Tremendous strides have been made in geospatial
resources on the web.
The speed my kids are embracing new technology blows
my mind; it's hard to imagine where their children
will take us.
P2P networks, blogs, and a few others are reshaping
Peer-to-peer greatly impacted/rattled the
establishment. The acceleration of broadband access has
definitely opened alotta doors that were previously
cyber-shut. It's improved the access to the
marketplace for small business/entrepreneurs.
The availability of information has really surprised
me. For example, I Googled "R/2R" and
immediately got data on a chip made by Bournes.
The cultural polarization due to the ease with which
people can selectively filter what they see and
Utter and ill-advised reliance on dubious information
received via the 'net; the blurring of the line
between work and leisure; the movement of information
Corporate data harvesting ... the only thing saving us
is that people have not really figured out how to use
all that data we are collecting ... But give it
People taking over the diagnosis of their own health
issues; taking the power of control out of the
doctors' hands and into their own. It was a
century-old power relationship that was turned on its
head in a few years.
The culture has become homogenized by television and
the Internet. It has broken down many barriers but made
us aware we are more the same than distinct from each
other. Otherwise, the speed of communication has made
us realize how small the world is. Yet we still wish to
travel and meet other people for the need of
face-to-face, human interaction.
Pervasive use of email, RSS, IM and blogging.
Adoption of instant messaging still fascinates
The impacts of blogs and online news source lately are
accelerating faster than I originally anticipated.
The proliferation of social uses and media formats,
e.g. with P2P file sharing.
I don't subscribe to a newspaper anymore. I
don't shop at retail stores nearly as often, or the
bank. I don't buy reference books or go the the
library. I don't use the phone as much.
The disruptive effect on the media.
Commercialization. It astounds me how fast the
previously money-free elements of the online world have
been subsumed by for-profit entities. Anyone remember
InterNIC? or pre-blog personal Web sites?
The uptake of the internet by the general public has
been astonishingly rapid, most especially the web. I
would have expected uptake to be primarily a
generational phenomenon, but clearly there are a lot of
middle-aged folks who are vigorously using the internet
now, who weren't aware of it 10 years ago.
Computer-assisted pedagogies have turned out to be
largely a disappointment to me, but the
''Google-Library of Babel'' is so
beautiful it still takes my breath away. I feel like I
am in Alexandria, and I'm impatient for all works
to be accessible in this way.
I am amazed how quickly the computer/Internet has
become a must-have tool for families and stay-at-home
parents. It replaces the newspaper and the phone book,
it gives directions, it helps neighbors communicate
about every day items, and more.
The impact of open source software, and the ability of
users to become very knowledgeable about the
The commercialization of the Internet and its use as a
Searchable information via Google.
Commerce is moving very fast-paced. Governments are
also being impacted significantly.
Internet adoption by older consumers, the change in
retailing, the sheer number of providers of all types
that one can interact with over the Web.
The impact on our political system and the
availability of information from all levels of
Increased expectations of work productivity Need to
remain ''tech savvy'' to do
The move from print on paper to digitization of
scholarly materials. My students think that all
information of any value is located on the computer -
and they don't go to libraries anymore.
Institutions and individuals have put far more
information up than I expected, and much more quickly.
This treasure trove, much of which is freely available,
is a major attraction in drawing people onto the
Internet. Commercial services (especially for travel
and financial services) have developed quite well, and
provide real value.
The ability to retrieve ''general
opinions'' about issues; different from
''grounded research,'' it is possible
to find out what anyone thinks about anything ranging
from fixing the toilet to diagnosing schizophrenia.
I'm continually amazed at how misinformed people
publish misinformed information that further misinforms
others who read the misinformation!