inety percent is too high. Penetration
of wired phones is only 94.2 percent! Adoption will
probably not be significantly higher than take-up of
PCs, which after all these years is still WELL below 90
percent. - J. Scott Marcus, Federal Communications
gree with most. Largest not-online group
is elderly. But many of the elderly of 2014 today are
younger and more likely online and will stay so.
Approaching 90% is thus feasible. And high-speed -
relative to dial-up - is also on a trend today to get
us close to that proportion. I'm more doubtful that
90% will have high-speed connections that are
"dramatically faster" than today. Many will,
but not all. So two of the three parts of this
prediction could happen. - Benjamin M. Compaine,
communications policy expert, editor of "The
Digital Divide: Facing a Crisis or Creating a
Myth?" and co-author of "Who Owns the
ithout substantial government
assistance, this will not happen until ISPs and/or
telecom companies find the cost of providing all homes
with broadband is worthwhile in terms of the data they
will mine. - Lois Ambash, Metaforix Inc.
hoa. First you have to get 90% online. I
don't think that is possible given current trends.
I do believe broadband will be widely used, however.
Still, will it be faster than today? Only if we can
come up with novel ways to make that pay for itself.
- David Tewksbury, University of Illinois at
don't know if it will be 90% but
certainly 50%-75%. - Jonathan Peizer, CTO, Open
ot nearly enough thought has been given
to how heavy home use of the Internet will affect
relations within the household. Sociability, social
support, social capital and authority will be
challenged. Who is paid attention to -- the screen or
the family? Who has access to better information? -
Barry Wellman, University of Toronto
e're almost there. Ironically,
it's our competitive marketplace that holds us up.
While we have networks that fail to integrate and be
interoperable, nationalized approaches in places no
more tech-capable (e.g., South Korea and Italy) are
really further along in this respect. - George
Otte, technology expert
en years is too short, and the networks
won't get much faster by then. But lots of people
will have broadband at home. - Susan Crawford,
fellow with the Center for Democracy & Technology
and a fellow with the Yale Law School Information
ost access to the internet will be via
wireless networks, especially as cities begin to
establish WiFi grids. Just as many Americans are
foregoing their land-lines at home for cell phones, I
suspect that they will give up their broadband for
wireless. - A. Halavais, State University of New
York at Buffalo
t's too extreme a prediction. A lot
more people are going to be on home access broadband,
and it's very likely that this will involve
wireless access or access through power lines. I just
don't think its possible to have 90 percent of ALL
Americans on these new types of high speed networks in
ten years. Perhaps ninety percent of current home
internet users, but not ninety percent of total
Americans, from their homes. - Robert Lunn,
FocalPoint Analytics/USC Digital Future
o. We're not going to get there.
This will be true in South Korea, Japan and perhaps
Singapore, but not in the United States. Recent public
policy has already doomed this dream to failure in my
view. - Kevin Featherly, editor, Healthcare
alf-Meg broadband penetration in the UK
stands at over 95% and new homes are starting to be
built with 100Mbps, CAT5 enabled. The USA will make a
national commitment to FTTH [fiber to the home] within
5 years. - Steve Coppins, South East England
ot sure it will reach 90%, based on
historic growth patterns. The wild card will be
projects such as CENIC, which offer government or
govt./corporate collaboration to build and maintain and
train users for such high-speed access. - Gary
Arlen, Arlen Communications
bsolutely. We will all have at least
40-100 mb/s (40 for the more remote areas) with many
fiber-connected homes. The technology for even simple
copper-based lines (ADSL2+ and cable) already can do
20-100. And since Moore's law and all the other
laws are still valid in 10 years it will not be problem
to go higher. Now at some time it will cost more than
just put fiber to the homes, so we will go that way,
providing almost unlimited bandwidth possibilities.
- Egon Verharen, innovation manager, SURFnet (Dutch
National Education & Research Network)
ue to regulatory and monopolistic
limitations presented by the FCC, RBOCS, and cable
industry, the U.S. will fall further behind many
industrial countries as far as overall usage and
internet speed. There will be some overall improvements
in mobile computing primarily produced by wireless
technologies. - Pat Murphy, CAPE.com Internet
inety percent of all Americans is too
high a number for adoption in a decade. By 2014, there
will be still be 25% of the American population that
will not be connected to the Internet through their
home using connections as fast as today's
high-speed networks. This will be through a combination
of factors that delay adoption, from persistently
socio-economically disenfranchised segments, less
desirable markets for companies to target, to those
that choose not to be connected. - Dan Ness,
his assumes a high degree of literacy
and technical fluency in the U.S. population. With
adult literacy rates among the lowest in the
industrialized nations, I think it's unlikely.
- Laura Breeden, Education Development
atellite's too iffy. Telco's
only needed to figure out a marketing/pricing strategy
in the late '90s and couldn't. In that same
time, cable tore up and repaved every road in America
as they rolled out two-way networks. They won, and are
not about to do it again to lay fiber. - Steven
Brier, Brier Associates
inety percent of people won't be
interested in going ''online'' as we
think of it now though they may inadvertently be
online, watching TV, or their refrigerator may send out
for milk on its own. There are two groups: those who
engage actively those who do not. Of those that DO go
online, I'm sure 90 percent of those will do so on
higher-speed facilities - Sam Punnett, FAD
And the following are from predictors who
chose to remain anonymous: [Workplaces of respondents
whose reactions are listed include Intel, RAND,
University of California at Berkeley, Harvard
University, U.S. Census Bureau, Microsoft, Internet2,
MIT, BMC, Penn State University, Media General,
University of Pennsylvania, University of Minnesota,
University of Illinois, Carnegie Mellon, The Results
Group, FCC, Advanced Microdevices, AT&T,
Moody's, Resource Interactive and
No way will we get 90% deployment of next-generation,
high-speed connections in 10 years. That would imply a
massively expensive infrastructure rollout.
So far, the speed of networks has been increasing
quite steadily. The demand is very far from being
satisfied (today's home connections can't even
support TV-quality video). While you're looking for
cheap predictions, here are some more: the CPUs will be
faster, computers will have more memory, and there will
be more computers.
Dramatically faster, yes, but 90% of all Americans - I
doubt that. 30% of the kids won't even have access
at a grand level in their schools - how will they have
this in their homes.
"Dramatically" needs to be 1 gbps up and
down. Yes, that's gigabit per second.
Only if the government subsidizes the great divide
between the haves and the have-nots with respect to
computers, computer training, and the cost of
I don't expect it to be that high of a percentage.
I expect broadband to fully replace dialup. I don't
expect the total percentage of home users to grow much
larger. It looks like it has reached a "natural
limit" determine by other factors, such as
education, interests, etc.
Costs will go down. And high-speed access will be a
must to access the best content. The market will push
people towards it.
90% is a bit high, given our poverty rate. But maybe
... TV managed to penetrate that far. So maybe.
Not sure about the percentages, but yes, I suspect
most Americans will enjoy such connections. The real
concerns are about those who are left behind - people
living on Indian reservations, the homeless - who will
be even less connected to the resulting culture.
Speeds may be up, but dramatically? Throughput will
rise more slowly than volume as what gets shipped grows
faster than the media of shipping. And, no more than
75% of Americans will have daily access, and an
increasingly large number will be only able to access
via third party (provided by someone, but with
restrictions) and controlled public (sometimes at a
public kiosk or library) on a more sporadic basis. That
is, social-access rates will actually be far below
There is too much old technology that will last much
longer than 10 years.
Agree - will be a mix of wired
and wireless. Broadband connectivity will be
Increasing income disparity will continue to keep at
least 20% from having Internet in the home.
By 2014, most people will be "online"
everywhere they go using broadband spectrum connections
when "on the go" and fiber when at home. At
least 2% of population will be "unconnected"
whether they can afford it or not and a significant
population (20-40%) will not be able to afford these
By 2014, the fiber will be plastic, driving the costs
down, and the fiber will come all the way to the home,
rather than the current node architecture that exists
today. It will be cheaper. It will be faster. But
they'll also go online from anywhere, anytime -
That's just not possible given the small numbers
still that are online today. Unless the govt. gives
every home a computer and high-speed connections are as
common as regular phones, it won?t happen.
It may be satellite instead by then.
Not unless someone wants to pony
up about $100 billion for a national information
I agree that networks will be faster but it seems
unlikely that 90% of Americans will have access to this
technology, for socio-economic reasons.
It will take more than ten years to get 90% of people
on "small broadband" (<3 Mbps) networks;
we certainly won't see 90% on "big
Not in 10 years. Even now, only 94% of the U.S. have
The trend has the right sign, but the proposed target
is too ambitious.
Broadband penetration will probably top out roughly
where dialup did - short of 90%. Today several cities
have 60-70% penetration rates. I suspect that we will
see penetration rates in the low to mid 80s in most
I don't expect broadband access to reach 90% of
Today's broadband will most likely reach 90%
penetration within five years. Following closely
behind, "big broadband" will roll out slowly
at first, then accelerate. By 2014, the goal should be
to have 100 megabits to 1 gigabit of connectivity to
all homes, an achievable goal.
The final-mile problem won?t be solved to that
I agree, but more likely 60-80%. Many of those ages
60+ today will not have changed their habits.
This is a purely an economic limitation; it seems
likely in the timeframe indicated.
The digital divide will persist so that 90% of
Americans won't be online that soon.
Infrastructure will not support this, unless satellite
Internet technology improves.
America lacks a commitment to infrastructure.
The Bells will rush fiber to the home to recapture the
telecom residential monopolies, and that will be
[It will happen] via the electric grid.
We know from the diffusion of other media technologies
that to achieve 90% is not likely to happen in this
time period. Many people will refuse to join the mass.
This is a no-brainer. Cable internet speeds are
ramping up already from their original 1.5Mb/sec speed
The only dramatically faster option is last-mile fiber
optics, which is very expensive, and for most people,
does not offer sufficient gains to justify the cost.
Even if it does, it will take 10 years to lay it, and
no one has really started.
This number can only be achieved if high-speed
networks and Internet appliances are as inexpensive as
today's low-end television sets. I know you are
mostly concerned with Americans, but worldwide, this
will absolutely not be true. People in the world today
(outside North America) enjoy the Internet using 9600Kb
The supply of new technology, mixed with lower costs,
will drive high-speed Internet access.
I don't see this happening. there is not political
''traction'' (or funding) for such a
sweeping infrastructure change. I think the U.S. will
continue to lag behind most other developed countries
in this regard.
Unless you make cheap wireless networks that plug into
people's homes, the economic stratification will
not allow everyone to afford the homes that contain
such networks. As with the advent of the cellular phone
market any new type of device, a training or
plug-and-play campaign will have to be put in place to
make this happen, and I don't think that the
government will support such a plan or help to put it
in place. Aren't we already supposed to have
high-definition TV (and maybe one day digital TV) as a
standard form of broadcast?
Depending on the cost of access - if high-speed
broadband continues to be sold through the
oligopoly/local monopoly system, we won't see the
number hit 90% ... that is an extremely high figure -
particularly when you consider that currently 90% of
households aren't even online, let alone at high
Many people will be left behind, and broadband will
become an upper-middle-class entitlement.