

believe that agents, automated control and embedded
computing will be pervasive, but I think society will be
able to balance the use. We will find these things
helpful and a nuisance, but we will not lose control of
our ability to regulate them. - David Clark, internet
pioneer, senior research scientist at MIT; now working
under a major National Science Foundation grant to
rethink the architecture of the internet; internet user
since 1975gain, the issue is in the extremity of
the proposal. We will certainly have some interesting
technologies. Until someone finds a way for a computer
to prevent anyone from pulling its power plug, however,
it will never be completely out of control. - Fred
Baker, CISCO Fellow, CISCO Systems, Internet Society
(ISOC) chairman of the board; Internet Engineering Task
Force (IETF); internet user since 1987 ompletely automating these activities
will continue to prove difficult to achieve in
practice. I do believe that there will be new dangers
and dependencies, but that comes from any new
technology, especially one so far-reaching. -
Thomas Narten, IBM open-internet standards
development; Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF)
liaison to ICANN; internet user since 1983 gree. Even in today's primitive
networks, there is little understanding of the
complexity of systems and possible force-multiplier
effects of network failures. The science of
understanding such dependencies is not growing as fast
as the desire to implement the technologies. -
Robert Shaw, internet strategy and policy advisor,
International Telecommunication Union (ITU); internet
user since 1987 he issue will be how humans and
information machines will form new assemblages, not how
one will displace the other. - Mark Poster,
professor of film and media studies, University of
California-Irvine; studies the ways social
communications have changed through the introduction of
new technologies; internet user since 1983 ou can only automate so much, but will
never get to the system having innate intelligence,
i.e. the ability to make judgments and handle
ambiguity. - Stewart Alsop, investor and analyst;
former editor of InfoWorld and Fortune columnist;
internet user since 1994 RM and "trusted computing"
initiatives already are replacing human judgment with
algorithms that inevitably favor restricted access to
the content on our own computers. - David
Weinberger, teacher, writer, speaker, consultant and
commentator on internet and technology; Harvard Berkman
Center; internet user since 1986 f
this were true, the world would have blown itself apart
in the 20th century. - Adrian Schofield, head of
research for ForgeAhead (focused on ICT research and
consulting in Africa), South Africa; a leader in the
World Information Technology and Services Alliance
(WITSA); internet user since 1994 -curve? Yeh, but that's not the end
of the world nor of human control. Man is characterized
by adaptability and also by occasional denial of the
obvious. To the extent the latter is manifest, we will
face surprises. The law of unintended consequences will
remain the most powerful law. - Bud Levin, program
head/psychology and commander/policy and planning, Blue
Ridge Community College; Waynesboro (VA) Police
Department; internet user since 1988 e
can always switch off what we don't like and which
causes trouble. This will be no more or less of a
problem than a malfunctioning cruise-control, or
thermostat today. - John Browning, co-founder of
First Tuesday, a global network dedicated to
entrepreneurs; former writer for The Economist and
other top publications; internet user since
1989 eople will adapt to such changes
rapidly, but in the process there may be a new set of
winners and losers. The "turbulence" due to
such new technology will cause some short-term
problems. In the long term, it depends upon whether
agents develop to occupy the same
economic/ecological/social niches as humans or
different ones. In the former case one or other will
dominate, in the later case there can be co-existence.
- Bruce Edmonds, Centre for Policy Modelling,
Manchester Metropolitan University, UK; internet user
since 1992 hile autonomous technology is likely to
become a problem, as long as the everyday weapon-backed
power systems (e.g. police force) are kept in human
hands, no technical change is irreversible. Such
reversion may take place as a socioeconomic collapse,
though. - Pekka Nikander, Ericcson Research,
Helsinki Institute for Information Technology; past
member of the Internet Architecture Board; internet
user since 1987 ystems like the power grid are already
so complex that they are impossible to predictably
control at all times - hence the periodic catastrophic
failures of sections of grid. But the complexity and
interconnectedness of computer-monitored or controlled
processes is only a fraction of what it will be in 15
years. Data mining of personal traces is in its
infancy. Automatic facial recognition of video images
is in its infancy. Surveillance cameras are not all
digital, nor are they all interconnected - yet. -
Howard Rheingold, internet sociologist and author;
one of the first writers to illuminate the ideals and
foibles of virtual communities; internet user since
1990 he key phrase is "OUR
control." These robotic agents and surveillance
technologies WILL be under control, but it will be
controlled by others; not those who are being tracked
and surveilled. This is already happening, and
escalating - not only in government operations, but
also in seemingly innocuous private-sector operations.
E.g., RFID tags now track consumers as they carry
products they are purchasing; truckers and delivery
drivers are now tracked by GIS systems that report
their position - and every momentary stop for an
undeclared coffee break - to their supervisors. One of
the greater hopes however, is that it takes
human/supervisor time and effort, to utilize the
results of such automated surveillance - no matter how
much assistance "those who are in control"
have from machines. - Jim Warren, internet pioneer
(founding editor of Dr. Dobb's Journal),
technology-policy advocate and activist, futurist;
internet user since 1970 f
you look at the way products are currently developed
and marketed, you'd have to say we're already
there: human beings have been taken out of the
equation. Human intervention will soon be recognized as
a necessary part of developing and maintaining a
society. - Douglas Rushkoff, author of many books
about net culture, teacher, New York University;
internet user since 1985 he surveillance systems will themselves
be surveilled by other systems, etc. - Fred
Hapgood, author and consultant; internet user since
1981 esistance is futile. And saying this
gives Luddites their intellectual cover. Everything
will work out, like 1984 did. - Bob Metcalfe,
Ethernet inventor, founder of 3Com Corporation, former
CEO of InfoWorld, now a venture capitalist and partner
in Polaris Venture Partners; internet user since
1970 ep, BIG BROTHER ON CAFFEINE AND
STERIOIDS. - Tunji Lardner, CEO for the West
African NGO network: wangonet.org;
agendaconsulting.biz; has held various consultancies
for the World Bank and United Nations as well as being
a resource person and consultant to the UNDP African
Internet Initiative; internet user since
1988 his is the single greatest challenge
facing us in the early years of the twenty-first
century. We are constructing architectures of
surveillance over which we will lose control. It's
time to think carefully about "Frankenstein,"
The Three Laws of Robotics, "Animatrix," and
"Gattaca." - Marc Rotenberg, executive
director Electronic Privacy Information Center;
internet user since 1978 agree that automated
intelligent systems will overtake certain aspects of
the information flow and that we are not capable of
predicting them, but I do not think they will
irreversible because the same flow of information will
alert larger and larger groups of people to the
threats. The major problem will be from providers and
mining software that have malignant intent. - Amos
Davidowitz, director of education, training and special
programs for Institute of World Affairs, Association
for Progressive Education; internet user since
1994 disagree in the hope
that human kind is responsible enough to understand
that the flow of information is far too sensitive to
leave it solely to the control of machines. -
Thomas Keller, domain services, Schlund + Partner
AG (a Germany-based web-hosting company – one of
the largest in Europe); internet user since 1995 eople are afraid of
the Golem. Film at 11. - Robin Berjon, W3C and
Expway; internet user since 1996 he question has an
overly dramatic spin to it, but the trend is correct.
Now, fear of enslavement by our creations is an old
fear, and a literary tritism. But I fear something
worse and much more likely - that sometime after 2020
our machines will become intelligent, evolve rapidly,
and end up treating us as pets. We can at least take
comfort that there is one worse fate - becoming food -
that mercifully is highly unlikely. - Paul Saffo,
forecaster and strategist, director, Institute for the
Future; serves on many boards, including the Long Now
Foundation; Internet user since 1978 s a race, we'd
never let that happen. One of the things that the
Internet has enabled is for the masses to collectively
monitor and expose, when necessary, misguided or
dangerous trends. Things won't be able to
'sneak' up on us, and freedom, especially of
ideas and one's ability to think, will be of
paramount importance to individuals worldwide. -
Michael Gorrell, senior VP and CIO for EBSCO;
internet user since 1994 must agree. Leaving
our future in the hands of automated systems is very
risky. The algorithms are only as good as what you put
into them, and many have never been tested to the
fullest extent to determine their robustness under
actual conditions (witness the strategic defense
initiative's "Star Wars" guidance
software that is charged with saving the American
population from holocaust but which has never been
field tested fully and the code is so complex some
scientists doubt it is capable of functioning as
designed.) - William Kearns, assistant professor at
the University of South Florida; internet user since
1992 n some cases, reversal
of the processes will be difficult and nearly
impossible. There are scenarios where processes based
on automation and intelligence based on rules and
identities will miss the "outliers" and
"exceptions" thereby resulting in mistakes,
some of which will be life threatening. - Jim
Archuleta, senior manager, government solutions, Ciena
Corporation; internet user since 1989 ome people will feel
they have no or less control, but people, perhaps
smaller groups than present, will remain in control,
using agents to leverage their power. - Willis
Marti, associate director for networking, Texas A&M
University; internet user since 1983 ertainly there is the
potential for the autonomous "Big Brother,"
self-enabling-technology that is both the dream of
science and the nightmare of science fiction. The need
to explore, do research, experiment and examine should
act as the greatest deterrent to this. We have to be
careful that while we are creating systems that
automate and develop intelligent conclusions, we are
not also limiting our ability to go beyond the
boundaries of what is possible in the moment by
creating systems that could limit that. - Tom
Snook, CTO, New World Symphony, internet user since
1967 hile I agree that
autonomous technology is a problem and has dangers, I
disagree with the subsequent prediction of an
inevitable run-away phenomenon. I am hopeful that
interventions (perhaps by other autonomous agents) will
prevent a run-away J-curve. – V.K. Wong,
director of IT campus initiatives and CARAT
(Collaboratory for Advanced Research and Academic
Technologies), University of Michigan; internet user
since 1981 agree that we can
anticipate change and new experiences that we did not
anticipate as well as change that we cannot easily
reverse. I also believe this is already evidenced by
today with a variety of issues facing the public and
corporations (SPAM, Phishing, identity theft, etc.).
Security will be less of an issue, but it will be
followed by other unanticipated results of technology
change. - Mike McCarty, chief network officer,
Johns Hopkins; internet user since 1992 s Asimov predicted, we
are moving toward a more "intelligent" and
robotic world. In a climate of global fear - promoted
so much by USA President - we will accept increasing
amounts of privacy intrusion. Like most large-scale
movements, there are pros and cons to this trend.
Whether we "feel" overall better off in 15
years is yet to be seen. It is likely that everyone
moves to more structured, confined, and socially
limited behavior as fears of being an "outed"
outcast rise among even law-abiding people worldwide. -
Ed Lyell, pioneer in issues regarding internet and
education, professor at Adams State College; internet
user since 1965 ersonal freedom
continues to erode beyond anything that our founding
fathers could probably imagine. Outsourcing
surveillance and security functions to organizations
like ChoicePoint has already resulted in a fraudulent
election of a President. And governments seldom ask for
less power. This trend is not likely to be addressed
unless a significant portion of the population comes to
their senses and realizes that much of the authority
being asked for in the name of national security does
nothing to make them more secure, but does a lot to
make them less free. - Joe Bishop, VP business
development, Marratech AB; internet user since
1994 o doubt. However, as
recent events have demonstrated, human miscommunication
of intelligence, both accidental and deliberate,
remains a huge problem. Intelligence available to
everyone without human intervention could help stop
unnecessary wars by letting everyone see whether or not
there are troop buildups, and could help stop some
environmental problems by letting everyone see what
companies are polluting or clear-cutting. Maybe we
won't want to reverse some of these changes,
because they will be beneficial. - John S.
Quarterman, president InternetPerils Inc.; publisher of
the first "maps" of the internet; internet
user since 1974 his is the AI
bogeyman. It's always around 20 years away,
whatever the year. - Seth Finkelstein,
anti-censorship activist and programmer, author of the
Infothought blog and an EFF Pioneer award winner echnology may create
more opportunities at leisure, increased productivity,
and enhanced efficiency in some operations. It will
never displace human creativity. - Rashid Bashshur,
director of telemedicine, University of Michigan;
internet user since 1980 ntelligent, automated
and distributed don't necessarily lead to
uncontrollable, out of control and dangerous. Very few,
if any, technologies live beyond the control of its
creators - everything has a chokepoint. This is almost
a certain design inevitability - people build in
control points, often subconsciously, as matters of
convenience, safety and elegance. Wholly-autonomous is
probably unworkable. - Ross Rader, director of
research and innovation, Tucows Inc; internet user
since 1991 his dysfunctional
universe may come true for several types of
applications, on and off the network. We better start
designing some hydraulic steering mechanisms back into
airplanes, and simple overrides of automatic systems in
cars. Not to speak about pencil-and-paper calculations
to get back your life's savings from a bank! -
Alejandro Pisanty, CIO for UNAM (National
University of Mexico); vice chairman of the board for
ICANN; member of United Nations' Working Group for
Internet Governance; active in ISOC; internet user
since 1977 e are already,
aren't we? But can't we also be into
self-correction of this problem? Awareness is beginning
to emerge, and technological solutions can develop for
the technological challenges named IF we self-govern as
industry, and partner with governments to achieve some
limitations of the surveillance powers of the
"states." - Marilyn Cade, CEO and
principal, ICT Strategies, MCADE, LLC; also with
Information Technology Association of America (business
alliance); internet user since 1986 t's a great
science fiction plot, but I don't see it happening.
I am skeptical about intelligent agents taking over any
time soon. - Hal Varian, professor at University of
California-Berkeley; Google; internet user since
1986 ot every society
around the world is as uptight about issues of privacy
and surveillance as is the population of North America.
In Latin America, for example, for centuries the
"haves" had domestic servants circulating
around the house, making any kind of privacy absolutely
impossible; and even today privacy and surveillance are
not issues which concerns most citizens in this part of
the world. Electronic surveillance and tracking systems
in the streets and interiors of buildings will be
absorbed by the population here just as traffic lights,
seat-belts and metal detectors - as necessary evils,
but only because they take extra time, not because they
"invade" someone's private space. -
Fredric M. Litto, professor, University of Sao
Paulo; president, ABED-Brazilian Association for
Distance Education; internet user since 1993 e will cut direct
human input in a variety of human activities and this
will cause problems. This is already causing problems
and we're not yet near the "singularity"
where we're likely headed. However, the notion of
"technology beyond our control" is an
alarmist construct. While one might argue that
we're already going to wars without informed
consent and our children are burning up their
adolescence in escapist technological dodges - this
statement doesn't allow for a learning curve. In
all of the above areas, we are learning as we are
making mistakes. So while we are hell-bent on
acceleration of change, I believe we will also rethink
and respond to those systems that seem to be running
away from us. We have the time to understand our
relationship with technology and I think we will not
get lost on a dead-end J-curve. - Barry K.
Chudakov, principal, The Chudakov Company; internet
user since 1989 ertainly intelligent
agents and distributed control will automate some
tasks. But heavy automation of tasks and jobs in the
past (e.g., telephone operators) hasn't led to
"dangers and dependencies." - Robert
Kraut, Human Computer Interaction Institute, Carnegie
Mellon University t's a foolish
proposition. Autonomous technology is widespread today
and indispensable. Characterizing it as a
"problem" is fairly clueless. - Anthony
Rutkowski, VP for regulatory and standards, Verisign; a
co-founder and former executive director of the
Internet Society; active leader in International
Telecommunication Union (ITU); internet user since
1979 es, with mandatory
date retention in Europe and a demise of democracy in
USA associated with voting right given to suppliers of
"voting machines" instead of people it is
already a very real problem. - Wladyslaw Majewski,
OSI CompuTrain SA, ISOC Polska; internet user since
1989 truly do agree that
there will be nearly complete automation of such
boring-to-humans activity as surveillance, security,
and tracking systems. There will clearly be unintended
consequences, some of which may endanger or take human
life. However, I don't believe it will be
impossible to reverse such things; indeed, we will
continue to perfect them while undergirding them with
something like Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics. -
Glenn Ricart, executive director, Price Waterhouse
Coopers Advanced Research; member of the board of
trustees of the Internet Society; internet user since
1968 es, this will
increasingly be a problem. But, hopefully, the
importance of these feedback loops can be recognized
and this problem can be managed in cases where it is
important to do so. - Greg Brewster, associate
dean, DePaul University; internet user since 1979 his is likely to be
so, but hopefully common sense prevails and necessary
safeguards are put in place prior. - Rajnesh D.
Singh, PATARA Communications & Electronics Ltd.,
Avon Group, GNR Consulting, ISOC Pacific Islands;
internet user since 1993
e already have no way
of predicting how new technologies will affect society,
and we know that innovations are occurring more
rapidly. That such difficulties will continue appears
to me to be a "no-brainer." - Alex
Halavais, assistant professor, State University of New
York-Buffalo; internet user since 1984 hilst this is a
hypothetical "risk scenario" that we might
indeed be headed towards, there is no such thing as an
"impossible to reverse situation" whilst
Internet users and public interests groups are actively
involved. - Cheryl Langdon-Orr, independent
internet business operator and director for
ISOC-Australia; internet user since 1977 n many ways, this has
happened already - some writers of Internet worms
purport to have written a piece of code that they never
expected to have as far reaching implications as they
originally intended - others, of course, were
completely malicious in their attempts to disrupt
networks. Flight systems (space shuttle, commercial
aviation, etc.) are susceptible to this as well, and
poor results from these automated systems can have
deadly consequences. However, this issue will remain
isolated to certain instances throughout the next 15
years rather than being a widespread problem. -
Philip Joung, Spirent Communications (wireless
positioning products); internet user since 1989 agree, however, the
problem is not simply with the technology, but also
with people's tendency to comply with surveillance.
- Monica Whitty, professor at Queen's
University, Belfast; internet user since 1994 lthough there may be
unforeseen dangers, I believe vigilant and involved
citizens (netizens?) will act as a corrective to these
problems. Organizations like CPSR and EPIC will serve
critical roles in revealing, understanding, and
addressing these problems. - Ben Detenber,
associate professor, Nanyang Technological University,
Singapore ystopian scenarios are
always a good warning, but it seems to me that such a
complete erasure of the human function in the process
is an exaggeration. Lack of privacy and surveillance,
which includes humans, or more precisely human
decisions, seems to me to be a more serious threat. -
Mirko Petric, University of Zadar, Croatia;
internet user since 1996 disagree with such
dystopian technology perspectives, if only because they
ignore the fact that technologies don't suddenly
become autonomous agents overnight - people are there
in the process of their becoming more autonomous every
step of the way and can respond to the issues arising
in the moment. I do believe, however, that it is
important to thoroughly think through the consequences
of new technological developments and the accompanying
social and political consequences they will have. -
B. van den Berg, faculty of philosophy at Erasmus
University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; internet user
since 1993 his is a scenario out
of a science fiction movie; I doubt it will take place.
There will be points at which more data is collected
than we intended to, but I don't foresee
"dependence" in the sense it is laid out
here. - Randy Kluver, executive director, Singapore
Internet Research Centre; internet user since 1989 here may be pockets of
uncontrolled (by humans/"victims"), but I
would expect to see technology evolve that once again
puts the person in control of the environment. While we
may use intelligent agents, they will be utilized in
such a manner allowing the user to define precisely how
and when used. Further, others, using intelligent
agents to perhaps get information on someone, will be
unable to do so without the object person allowing it.
In other words, I believe the hue and cry of privacy
violations today will invoke systems to protect the
individual and preserve privacy. - Don Heath, board
member, iPool, Brilliant Cities Inc., Diversified
Software, Alcatel, Foretec; internet user since
1988 uman beings always
have control, but they often choose to give it up. For
example, when the airline agent tells me I cannot do
something because "the computer won't allow
it." Human beings have made choices to program the
computer in that way, to limit human abilities to
override functions. I could also say I agree since we
do seem willing to give up control to systems, and
increasingly legislators and the judiciary have allowed
surveillance, security and tracking systems that would
seem to me - and to many others - to be dangerous. My
struggle in answering this question is my unwillingness
to give in to technological determinism. - Leigh
Estabrook, professor, University of Illinois; internet
user since 1978 qualify my agreement
in that the autonomous technology will be in the form
of communication ultra-structure capabilities that
allow almost anyone to project power with little or no
cost. The repertoires of individuals and groups will be
readily available and successful or attractive ones
will spread and scale rapidly. The aggregate adoption
will cause huge and likely unpredictable shifts in
social, political, economic arenas. People will no
longer favor incumbent systems, but will move to
systems that make sense to them and serve their needs.
This will force incumbent systems to adapt quickly or
fail. Governmental protection of incumbent corporate
and social power will lose much of its effectiveness as
a force of social control. These parallel systems to
serve people's needs will arise via digital
networks and form a new bottom-up, global, civil
society. - Ted M. Coopman, activist, social science
researcher, instructor at the University of Washington,
Seattle, member of AoIR board of directors his is pretty possible
scenario, so I believe there is a responsibility for
internet researchers in that respect - to recognise
those dependencies in advance and to act on preventing
dangers. - Lilia Efimova, researcher, Telematica
Instituut, Netherlands; internet user since 1993 his already happens
with some technologies (and applications of scientific
knowledge in general) and the more complex technology
becomes, the more often it will be misinterpreted and
trusted beyond reasonable levels. For examples of the
same happening today, one can think of uses of
technology for medical diagnosis - medical doctors
already trust the results of laboratory exams and
technically produced images of the human body much
beyond what their patients report. One can also see
that when technology is used in court - DNA exams and
the images from security cameras appear to be misused
and misinterpreted rather often. - Suely Fragoso,
professor, Unisinos, Brazil; internet user since
1994 hile there may be
occasional home-grown rogue technologies, these will be
limited to small outbreaks instigated by people on the
fringes of mainstream society (religious fanatics,
anti-corporate activists, and the like). Large
corporations and governments are so concerned about
maintaining control that they will be very careful
about building anything that might self-replicate. We
see this attitude playing out in the form of crop seeds
that cannot replicate and attempts to force people to
pay every time they watch TV, a DVD or listen to music.
I doubt 125-year copyright system or the patent process
will have significantly loosened its grip on the
exchange of intellectual property in 15 years. -
Scott Moore, online community manager, Helen and
Charles Schwab Foundation; internet user since
1991 here will be a trend
in this direction, not as extreme as displayed in the
above scenario, but bad enough that we will experience
injustice, I think that some of those systems may be
reversible, others may not. I would guess a probability
of about 30% that such systems develop. - Arent
Greve, professor, The Norwegian School of Economics and
Business Administration; internet user since 1983 agree but it is not a
doomsday scenario and the development of these
technologies will echo previous technologies with
similar curves, unexpected developments, and
unauthorised appropriations by grassroots groups. -
Mark Gaved, The Open University, United Kingdom;
internet user since 1987 'm putting a
positive spin on this by disagreeing. I suspect there
will be examples where the prediction is true but that
socially mediated expectations will lead to limitations
on such technologies. - Andy Williamson, managing
director for Wairua Consulting Limited, New Zealand; a
member of the NZ government's Digital Strategy
Advisory Group; internet user since 1990 hat scenario will be
real only in the technologically most developed
segments in our countries. Maybe most of humanity will
be under surveillance and control by the technological
resources and its managers but not in real command of
that means. - Raul Trejo-Delarbre, Universidad
Nacional Autonoma de Mexico; internet user since
1993 here is a collision
between individual security and commercial interests.
There is a flood of research on technologies that
exploits all possible vulnerabilities. - W. Reid
Cornwell, director of The Center for Internet Research;
internet user since 1974 don't trust
technology as much as I trust human intelligence as
input into decisions. Technology is changing so rapidly
that there is no time to really nut out consequences
that could be negative. - Barbara Craig, Victoria
University; internet user since 1993 agree that it is a
very real danger. However, I think that our present
thinking about how automation and distributed computing
works is naïve. In the year 2020, the general public
will be much more aware of how to utilize their agents
and control schemes. We should see a much more
"AI-literate" population, if not in 2020,
then in 2040. - Charlie Breindahl, external
lecturer, University of Copenhagen, IT University of
Copenhagen; internet user since 1996 his is already a
problem. We have become so content with technology
handling the "little things" that we have
lost a sense of perspective on the "big
picture." We are out-sourcing our privacy. -
Martin F. Murphy, IT consultant, City of New York;
internet user since 1993 ided by governmental
policies like those of the Bush administration,
"the people" lose track of what the
governments are doing. "The people" insist on
using credit and other trackable means. We all lose to
the machine or its ghost. - Edward Lee Lamoureux,
associate professor, Bradley University nless we severely
damage our physical environment, cultural and social
structures have proved to be flexible. History shows
that empires fall. If we get an empire of the net, this
will eventually fall too. - Torill Mortensen:,
associate professor, Volda University College, Norway;
internet user since 1991 echnology will not
master the emotional elements that drive certain
decision-making. Of course, left unchecked, we could
become too dependent on machines, e.g., using a
calculator for simple math when one's own
computational skills could be used. - Richard Yee,
competitive intelligence analyst, AT&T; internet
user since 1995 ncreased automation
will be problematic, but not irreversible. We'll
still have some control, though end users will be more
frustrated when the automation fails and no backup
plans are in place. - Kevin Schlag, director of web
development and IT for Western Governor's
University, BYU-Hawaii; internet user since 1993 hat, sadly, is the
price of technology evolution - like it or not. No good
technology goes unpunished. - Stan Felder,
president and CEO, Vibrance Associates, LLC; internet
user since 1985 hile a few activities
could spin off course, most really problematic issues
will be spotted early and repaired. Also, monitoring
which alerts humans to problems will become a
high-order business on its own, incorporating
"self-healing" networks equipped with alarms
when boundaries are exceeded. - Michael Reilly,
GLOBALWRITERS, Baronet Media LLC, Hally Enterprises,
Inc., State University of NY at Stony Brook, Global
Public Affairs Institute; internet user since 1972 e have only begun to
see the beginning of the acceleration. Convergence of
technologies will present complications and scenarios
not yet thought of. - Todd Costigan, National
Association of Realtors; internet user since, 1985 his is one of the
scariest consequences of our light-speed technological
advancement. Hollywood fiction will become reality. -
Daniel D. Wang, principal, Roadmap Associates
(coaching and advisory company); internet user since
1995 e are not unaware of
the possible dangers. Science fiction has warned of
nearly any threat that autonomous technology can raise.
There will be problems caused by autonomous tech, but,
like germs provoking an immune system response, the
eventual effect of the initial damage will be to
install safeguards that protect us from long-lasting
damage. - Sean Mead, consultant for Interbrand
Analytics, Design Forum, Mead Mead & Clark and
other companies; internet user since 1989 alm down. We are only
talking 14 years from now. There are so many problems
even with basic "intelligent agents" that
exist today that much scepticism exists and the
standards for dependency will be very high. - Ralph
Blanchard, investor, information services entrepreneur;
internet user since 1994 angers exist now as
the Patriot Act is the start of the
"J-curve." Illegal wiretaps by governments is
already taking place and explained away using the
"lipstick on a pig" spin. A society based
upon fear is not a free society. - Ted Summerfield,
president, Punzhu.com or the most part,
society has a self-adjusting mechanism. As dangers on
the horizon approach, the relative importance society
puts on them increases until the cost to not address
them becomes too great. It's the issues that
require us to anticipate far in advance that may give
us a problem. - A. White, a respondent who chose
not to share his/her specific identity hings may be much
worse with the increasing prevalence of RFID chips and
similar technologies. Before 2020 I think that every
newborn child in industrialized countries will be
implanted with an RFID or similar chip. Ostensibly
providing important personal and medical data, these
may also be used for tracking and surveillance. -
Michael Dahan, professor, Sapir Academic College,
Israel; Digital Jerusalem; internet user since
1989 he drive to make smart
technologies with artificial intelligence means
developers will allow AI unrestricted access to the
internet. Self-learning AI could theoretically teach
itself to override all security measures and begin the
"J-curve." - J. Fox, a respondent who
chose not to share his/her specific identity ith the advancement in
tech (hardware & software) and our knowledge of
robotics and material science like nanotech, we shall
increasingly rely on machines. Whether the development
of AI will lead to self-awareness in machines, time
will tell. Welcome, the Age of the Terminator. -
Alik Khanna, Smart Analyst Inc. (business employing
financial analysts in India); internet user since
1996 arring
interruption that does seem where we're headed.
People are accepting more and more of this type of
thing, though I continue to hope they will revolt
against it. - Ralph Mueller, self-employed;
internet user since 1977 here will still be
generations living in 2020 who are not willing to give
up so much control. It also takes a long time to prove
autonomous technology for mission-critical
applications. - Brian T. Nakamoto, Everyone.net (a
leading provider of outsourced e-mail solutions for
individuals and companies around the world); internet
user since 1990 lthough the political
climate of the U.S. in particular appears to be
shifting in this direction, in 2020 balancing voices
will be heard that argue for moderation, limiting
technological progress but preserving privacy and
control. - Peter Kim, senior analyst, marketing
strategy and technology team, Forrester Research;
internet user since 1993 t is not really a
binary choice. I do not believe that autonomous
technology will be any different than other
technologies like internal combustion, genetically
modified organisms, or production agriculture in their
likelihood of removing human control or creating
unalterable, negative change. Like these examples,
there will be benefits and challenges that individuals
will have to deal with on a personal basis. The fears
will be disproportionately covered, as is human nature.
The real danger is in autonomous technology that
stifles interdependence among humans. I believe that
human interdependence is the characteristic of our
species that enables us to evolve and adapt to
challenges we cannot foresee. - Jeff Hammond, VP,
Rhea and Kaiser; internet user since 1992 istory has shown that
as technology advances the abuse of that technology
advances. History has also demonstrated that we do not
control technology as much as we think we do. -
Paul Craven, director of enterprise communications,
U.S. Department of Labor; internet user since 1993 ot exactly in the way
described. A kind of war between intelligence will come
true: we will always have "people against"
what is on, i.e., intelligence against the way things
are at a certain moment. - Ivair Bigaran, Global
Messenger Courier do Brasil, American Box Serviço
Int'l S/C Ltda.; internet user since 1994 e have to be careful
that we still maintain our rights defined in our
Constitution. I am already uncomfortable with how much
Big Brother is watching, thanks to technology. -
Beth Gallaway, trainer/librarian/consultant,
Metrowest MA Regional Library System; internet user
since 1992 hile intelligent
agents and distributed control will replace much of the
direct human input required today, the human element
will never be totally replaced. While technology beyond
our control may come frighteningly close to reality,
machines will never be able to replace the human
conscience. - Mitchell Kam, Willamette University,
Oregon; internet user since 1979 oon people with parts
of the knowledge about these devices will be valued,
like car mechanics of high-tech cars on a lesser scale.
- Susan Wilhite, design anthropologist, Habitat for
Humanity; internet user since 1993
he more autonomous
agents the better. The steeper the "J curve"
the better. Automation, including through autonomous
agents, will help boost standards of living, freeing us
from drudgery. - Rob Atkinson, director, Technology
and New Economy Project, Progressive Policy Institute
(a think tank); previously project director at the
Congressional Office of Technology Assessment; internet
user since 1993 here may be some merit
in the thought. However the rate of evolution required
is far greater for a 2020 situation. - Syamant
Sandhir, leader in experience design and
implementation, Futurescape; internet user since
1995 e're there
already. Scott McNealy, CEO of Sun Microsystems, said
in 1999, "You have zero privacy anyway. Get over
it." - Nicco Mele, internet strategist,
political web architecture expert agree that this is a
risk, but not a certainty. UCSD Prof Natalie
Jerimenko's idea of "legibility" and the
"human readability" I call for in my story
"Human Readable" both present plausible
answers to this problem. It's possible that future
commercial services, like search engines, that publicly
expose their "secret sauce" sorting and
ranking algorithms will out-compete their proprietary
and secretive brethren. After all, science improves
when you publish. - Cory Doctorow, self-employed
journalist, blogger, co-editor of Boing Boing; born in
Canada and now lives in London; EFF Fellow; internet
user since 1987 his prediction is too
pessimistic and not in keeping with North American and
Western European political sensibilities. - Ellen
K. Sullivan, former diplomat, policy fellow, George
Mason University School of Public Policy; internet user
since 1988 he use of standard
decision-making software by stock market traders has
already led to effects outside of what we planned or
wanted. I don't fear robots looking like Arnold
Schwarzenegger taking over the world, but unexpected
and unwanted effects of distributed control are
feasible. - Henry Potts, professor, University
College, London; internet user since 1990 his is simply too
far-fetched. - Mark Crowley, researcher, The
Customer Respect Group; internet user since 1995 think we're
smarter than to let this happen. I think, I hope, we
can use technology as a tool and not to cut human input
out of the process. - Lori Keith, internet
marketing consultant for Mannington Mills his is a negative
result but I can't see either the commercial or
political forces yielding on this one with so much
wealth and power at stake. - Jill O'Neill,
director of planning & communication, National
Federation of Abstracting and Information Services;
internet user since 1986 prefer to be
optimistic on this one. There is a danger that some of
those things will happen, but I think - at least in
democratic states and regions - popular pressure and
checks and balances will ensure that such developments
are prevented. - Olav Anders Øvrebø, freelance
journalist based in Oslo, Norway; internet user since
1995 his has already
happened to some degree. But the combination of
human/bureaucratic/governmental screw-ups and
technological complexity will continue to produce
bloated, under-performing uber-systems, and the NSA of
the future will continue ineffectually spending
mega-billions of dollars blindly screening
communications traffic and surveillance data while
turning up thousands of wasted false positives to every
genuine hit. Only in small, well-demarcated areas will
intelligent agents prove cost-effective. Some
over-reaching system designs will become famous
blunders and public jokes. - Walt Dickie, VP and
CTO, C&R Research; internet user since 1992 hese trends are
already evident. Ironically, these trends are being
escalated by those who tend to devalue science and
science education in favor of anti-scientific and
anti-technological fundamentalist religious curricula.
- Benjamin Ben-Baruch, senior market intelligence
consultant and applied sociologist, Aquent, General
Motors, Eastern Michigan University; internet user
since 1980 'm not necessarily
talking science fiction here, more like
self-replicating, out-of-control viruses and DNS
attacks that 1) lack author-derived backdoors, and 2)
reproduce like minks. - Roger Scimé, self-employed
web designer; internet user since 1994 ensing and monitoring
is already a problem intimidating many people. It will
only get worse as more and more devices and programs
have that built-in capability shoved down consumers or
employees' throats. - Steffan Heuer, U.S.
correspondent, brand eins Wirtschaftsmagazin; internet
user since 1994 hile this scenario
clearly a danger, we don't yet understand how
powerful fully-connected human beings can be. -
Mary Ann Allison, chairman and chief cybernetics
officer, The Allison Group, LLC; futurist; internet
user since 1981 e are already here.
It's a common theme from literature about
technology for the past 150 years: unintended
consequences, loss of control, dis-association of
functionality from the real costs incurred by organic
life. - Denzil Meyers, founder and president,
Widgetwonder (internal branding consultants and
facilitators of corporate storytelling), Applied
Improvisation Network; internet user since 1993 n 2020, the big
decision that each human being will make about their
cultural alignment will not be "Windows or
Mac," or "gay or straight," but
"corporate or Open Source?" Corporate,
proprietary systems and internets will provide better
performance, ease-of-use, anticipatory agents, etc.
However, corporate-system subscribers will be trading
privacy and control for convenience and pop-culture
inclusion. Open Source life will be for technological
innovators, programmers, pamphleteer bloggers, artists,
pornographers, content-creators, citizen journalists,
political dissidents and hackers. Participants in Open
Source culture will be fierce defenders of privacy,
human rights and civil liberties. - Daniel Conover,
new-media developer, Evening Post Publishing; internet
user since 1994 hese are two separate
statements. I agree that we will be on the vertical
part of a "J-curve" of continued acceleration
of change, but I don't foresee that we will be so
shortsighted as to completely lose control of the
intelligent agents that we create and program. -
Michelle Catlett, instructional technologist,
Edubuilder, Apria Healthcare, Laureate Education;
internet user since 1992 his sounds like the
scenario of The Terminator movie. I don't believe
that is a likely outcome (although entertaining for a
movie). I suspect there will be more autonomous
technology and most people will be as unaware of it as
they are about the computer in their cars. It may
replace some people from their jobs (as robots have on
car assembly lines), but most people will just see the
end product and not know the difference. - Rangi
Keen, software engineer, Centric Software, internet
user since 1989 he slippery slope of
want of privacy plus want of security changes the
balances and leaves open the possibility for abuse of
the information (which will be tremendous) generated
from surveillance, security and tracking systems. This
also leads to more people trying to live "off the
net" which leads to distrust of this group (what
are they trying to hide?). Some of which may just be
want of keeping privacy. - Chris Miller, a
respondent who chose not to share his specific
identity ue to homeland
security fear (and money) there will be way more
development of sensors and surveillance tech, but it
won't be "beyond our control." People
will question the tradeoffs in ways they don't at
present, i.e. they'll give up private info to join
a contest or get a discount. - Steve Cisler, former
senior library scientist for Apple, founder of the
Association for Community Networking, now working on
public-access projects in Guatemala, Ecuador and
Uganda; internet user since 1989 ow
"intelligent" will these agents be is
questionable, but the rise of automated surveillance
without any real counterweights seems very likely. What
does not imply that it will be impossible to reverse
them like any other form of oppression. - Michel
Menou, professor and information-science researcher;
born in France, he has worked in nearly 80 nations;
internet user since 1992 hile I don't
suffer from Pollyanna thinking, and I do recognize the
nature of subtle control over the web by those with
less than sterling character, I believe we will be
able, and willing to create safeguards and public
opinion mechanisms that will drive the internet to safe
and humane standards without cutting our chance at
creativity. - Walter J. Broadbent, VP, The
Broadbent Group; internet user since 1994 believe such
technology will exist in some venues but not throughout
the world and definitely not throughout society. There
will be dangers and accidents that will result in
deaths of some individuals and populations in some
geographical regions where technological disasters
occur. - James Conser, professor emeritus,
Youngstown State University; internet user since
1985 ust read classic
science fiction - it is "the history of our
future," and I believe many of the issues related
to automated systems will truly come to pass. -
Gail Ives, executive director for institutional
research, Mott Community College; internet user since
1985 he only reason I can
agree with this is because of my first hand experience
within the technology industry. In my experience, the
people who write this code are so proud of their
work--and they should be--that the rational, real-world
checks and balances that should be implemented on their
results fall into a second-class citizenry level of
import. Until testing, bug fixing, user interfaces,
usefulness and basic application by subject matter
experts is given a higher priority than pure programmer
skill, we are totally in danger of evolving into an
out-of-control situation with autonomous technology.
Look at the state of affairs today: what we needed to
inform us about the September 11 attacks on the United
States was not automated intelligence, it was field
intelligence. More than four years later, field
intelligence has not improved. - Elle Tracy,
president and e-strategies consultant, The Results
Group; internet user since 1993 I think that we need to strive to
educate our people so that human input is involved in
the oversight and accountability of automated systems.
- Jeff Bohrer, learning technology consultant,
University of Wisconsin-Madison; internet user since
1993 We are slowly learning that we ALL
have to live together, that there aren't
"others." So we will learn new ways of living
together, rather than continue old habits of putting up
barriers to protect ourselves from "others."
- Cheris Kramarae, professor, Center for the Study
of Women in Society, University of Oregon; internet
user since 1976 Wherever it has become technically
possible for the powerful to covertly increase their
control over others, they have been eager to do so, and
wherever the unscrupulous have learned the techniques,
they have not hesitated to use them for criminal ends.
The majority of humanity have no protection from such
exploitation but the law. The lawmakers are too often
unfamiliar with the technology and too ready to believe
what the experts claim: that anything that can be done,
should be done - regardless of social and ethical
considerations - and the laws changed accordingly,
rather than that the social goals and protections
written into existing laws should be updated so as to
also govern the use of new technologies. - Judyth
Mermelstein, Canadian writer, professional
communicator Probable cause could take on a new
meaning. Did "intelligent agents" have
probable cause to freeze your accounts, call for your
arrest, prevent you from travelling, turn off your car
ignition, etc.? - Mike Parker, internet user since
1994 think that the
opportune decisions will be made so that this
doesn't happen, overall in the societies more
advanced technologically. For example, they are already
seeing each other stock in this address from the
governments in EU: studies, proposals and investments
in development in new technologies have been recently
published and approved by the European Commission. -
Sabino M. Rodriguez, MC&S Services; internet
user since 1994 f there is one thing
that I think that history has shown us in this area is
that very few individuals, organizations or governments
are capable of visualizing the long-range results of
changes in technology. Without the human capability of
review, evaluation, decision-making, etc. autonomous
technology could easily create problems that we can
barely anticipate at this time. - Loretta Righter,
librarian, Montgomery County-Norristown Public Library;
internet user since 1995 AL is alive and well.
- Celia Bouchard, assistant professor, St. Louis
Community College new field of study
and academic training will emerge to specifically
address the particular issue of identity, control, and
security of communication technologies. Finding a
balance between automaticity and
human-interface-interaction will become an interest in
research and in application. - Clement Chau,
Research Assistant and Program Coordinator, Tufts
University-Developmental Technologies Research Group;
internet user since 1995 oomsday predictions
have always followed technological advancements and the
web is no different. The human element will always be
needed to make judgmental decisions, something
computers are unlikely to be able to accomplish. -
Doug Olenick, computer technology editor, TWICE
(This Week In Consumer Electronics) Magazine; internet
user since 1996 echnology can only
serve mankind, it will never lead it. Certainly there
will be opportunities for abuse, but the culture of
technology development is fused with the rights of
personal expression, and this alone will probably
suffice to assure reasonable balances. - Al
Amersdorfer, president and CEO, Automotive Internet
Technologies; internet user since 1985 a ha, this is simply
third grade science fiction. Dangers come much more
subtle (read: less anthropomorphic) issues. -
Mikkel Holm Sørensen, software and intelligence
manager, Actics Ltd. (ethical management systems);
internet user since 1997 he internet will
evolve like other pathogenic systems; at some times the
pathogens will hold the upper hand as they adopt to
measures to counter them, and sometimes they will not.
- Jeff Corman, government policy analyst, Industry
Canada, Government of Canada; internet user since
1995 he structuring of the
question leads the responder to consider AI issues etc.
These are not a threat in my view. Dependency on
technological solutions is a potential problem, as is
seen nowadays whenever there is a power cut. It is this
type of dependency that will increase. We will not be
able to get into or out of our offices if the system
fails, we will not be able to move from one place to
another etc. I am not sure that we will be on a
'J-curve' any more than we have been for the
last half century. The desire for convenience, for ease
of use, for the removal of tedious, laborious tasks is
- in my opinion - inherent in us as beings. As such we
will continue to use and abuse technology to make our
lives easier. The price for this is increased
dependency on the technology. - Robin Lane,
educator and philosopher, Universidade Federal do Rio
Grande do Sul, Brazil; internet user since 1990 his is a wildcard
since it involves so many interim political and social
steps as well as technology development. Yes, converged
applications of automated tech - such as face scans
matched to databases - are already on the way and will
be widespread before 2020. But depending on global
poliltical developments, this Big Brother scenario
could happen well before 2020... or much much later (if
ever). Does 2084 sound like a century-late benchmark? -
Gary Arlen, president, Arlen Communications Inc.,
The Alwyn Group LLC; internet user since 1982 he problem is not
automated systems that resemble our behavioral patters
- the problem is biomimetic systems that develop
behavioral patterns of their own, which we cannot
understand. If we leave surveillance to an adaptive AI,
there will come a moment in which we won't
understand the processes behind its efficiency. Then it
will be a problem. But as long as surveillance,
tracking and tagging are modeled after human behavior,
and thus after human values, we do have issues but not
unsolvable problems. - Miguel Sicart Vila, junior
research associate, Information Ethics Group, Oxford
University; internet user since 1997 echnology will
certainly provide the means for this scenario to take
place but... I'm optimistic that policy-makers in
government will be able to craft the regulatory
framework to prevent this from getting out of control.
There will be bitter debates in the US between civil
libertarians and technologists but in other countries
and cultures there will be no debates. The only reason
this scenario will not take place in many countries
outside of the US will be the lack of technology
infrastructure in LDC and 3rd-world countries. -
Michael Conlin, former legislator, currently an
entrepreneur; internet user since 1990 hile potentially
troublesome, I think that because of the sci-fi
depictions of the impact that autonomous technology
could have such as the most renowned example depicted
in 2001: A Space Odyssey, HAL will certainly be managed
by smart and "administratable" measures to
avoid a logarithmic and uncontrollable set of
circumstances. - Kevin McFall, director, Online
Products & Affiliate Programs, Tribune Media
Services, NextCast Media; internet user since 1984 he increased threat of
terrorism, cyber-terrorism and financial security will
drive new security and crypto systems. - Terry
Ulaszewski, publisher, Long Beach Live Community News;
internet user since 1989 his autonomous tech
scenario is overstated. There will be many problems,
but more will occur as a consequence of human choice
and intervention than machines run amok. - Suzanne
Stefanac, author and interactive media strategist,
dispatchesfromblogistan.com; internet user since
1989 hope to be wrong -
but I believe the stampede towards such monitoring in
the name of "security" now, creates an
environment where autonomous technology seems a logical
consequence. Now, with the emerging social consequences
of even "harmless" technologies such as
mobile phone cameras, we need to be very cautious about
more even more intrusive technologies. -
Jean-Pierre Calabretto, former professional now a
Ph.D. student at University of South Australia;
internet user since 1989 suspect that we are
already there. There are a couple of wild cards,
however. 1) If the Pentagon report, which states that
North America could be under ice by 2012, should come
to pass then all of this may be a moot point. 2)
incompetence in organizations is so high that, even if
the technical components are in place, it may not
happen. - Timbre' Wolf, songwriter and member
of PG5YP (People's Glorious Five-Year Plan –
a band in Oklahoma); internet user since 1994 anaging intelligent
agents and distributed control will be a significant
issue, but lessons learned from the stock market and
other venues where AI is used remind administrators to
build in controls. - Alix L. Paultre, executive
editor, Hearst Business Media, Smartalix.com, Zep Tepi
Publishing; internet user since 1996 ot a prediction it is
a current reality. Do you know how your computer,
cellphone or microwave work? - Gordon MacDiarmid,
Lobo Internet Services; internet user since 1988 re not we almost
there? See NSF, Homeland Security, need to know. -
Joe Schmitz, assistant professor, Western Illinois
University; internet user since 1985 utonomous systems will
not become a serious problem until they are
sophisticated enough to be conscious (and thus assert
their own desires). As it stands now they simply tools
- advanced tools, but tools nonetheless. True AI is
still 50-100 years away. - Simon Woodside, CEO,
Semacode Corporation, based in Ontario, Canada;
internet user since 1992 isagree in that we are
already aware of these potential problems and will not
allow the autonomous entities to dominate. The main
fear I have here is the impact these restrictive
governments will have on the freedom and flexibility of
these networks. - Jim Aimone, director of network
development, HTC; internet user since 2000 here is likely much
truth to this, and a fair amount of the difficulty will
arise out of the inaccuracy of these intelligent
agents. - David Irons, VP, co-founder, AScribe
Newswire; internet user since 1993 his is an extension of
the current status. A suggestion for an XML standard
for emergency deployments during Hurricane Katrina
ignored the fact that there was no electricity, no
Internet access, decreasing batteries, and no access to
equipment that was swamped. Non-technical backups will
become increasingly important - even as we keep
forgetting about them. We will need to listen carefully
to people on the ground to assess -and plan for -
events in which we have no (or non-trustworthy)
technology. - Gwynne Kostin, director of Web
communications, U.S. Homeland Security; internet user
since 1993
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