
ever underestimate the hegemonic power of
the post-industrial era. If there is social unrest,
poverty (not information) will be at the heart of it. -
Peter P. Nieckarz Jr., assistant professor of
sociology, Western Carolina University; internet user
since 1993
gree but it doesn't matter. Tech
Luddites are like the survivalists of our current
times. They have withdrawn and therefore don't
matter in the grand scheme of things. Al-Qaeda are
definitely NOT Luddites! - Stewart Alsop, investor
and analyst; former editor of InfoWorld and Fortune
columnist; internet user since 1994
his is, I think, dangerous thinking -
branding those who don't buy a vision of technology
nirvana as terrorists is a type of blackmail. -
Paul Blacker, head of broadband strategy, British
Telecom; internet user since 1993
he association of acts of terrorism with
lack of access to technologies has no basis in history
or reality. There may be protests, but no 9/11s! -
Ian Peter, internet pioneer, helped develop the
internet in Australia and the Asia-Pacific region in
the 1980s; maintains a project on the future of the
internet – the Internet Mark II Project; internet
user since 1986
gain, this is a pattern repeated through
history and will not change. From "flower
power" to fundamental Islam, there will always be
those who get their kicks from being outside of the
mainstream of life. - Adrian Schofield, head of
research for ForgeAhead (focused on ICT research and
consulting in Africa), South Africa; a leader in the
World Information Technology and Services Alliance
(WITSA); internet user since 1994
ome already do. They're called cults
and survivalists. Y2K was a fantasy for many, who feel
too dependent on the grid. - Douglas Rushkoff,
author of many books about net culture, teacher, New
York University; internet user since 1985
agree, but only technically, with the statement as
written. Yes, there will be some who "live off the
grid", mostly disconnected from everyone except
the few with whom they choose to have contact. There
already are. There always have been! Yes, there will
probably be VERY isolated incidents of a VERY few
"attacks" against information technology,
just as there have always been attacks against all
previous technologies. E.g., some people have been
known to toss slugs into the coin-collection machines
at tollbooths, or sugar in gas-tanks, or the occasional
acts of the Luddites of a century ago. But applying the
wildly over-abused phrase, "acts of terror"
to such "attacks" is completely
inappropriate; more for breathless entertainment media,
than for legitimate description. - Jim Warren,
internet pioneer (founding editor of Dr. Dobb's
Journal), technology-policy advocate and activist,
futurist; internet user since 1970
hat's a pretty safe prediction. What
are the odds that there won't be anyone fitting
that description in 2020? - Fred Hapgood, author
and consultant; internet user since 1981
his will happen. The interesting
question is whether these acts will be considered
terrorism or civil disobedience. John Brunner's
"Neuromancer" suggests that we should keep an
open mind about this. - Marc Rotenberg, executive
director Electronic Privacy Information Center;
internet user since 1978
n
principal I agree, but the numbers will not be
significant. - Amos Davidowitz, director of
education, training and special programs for Institute
of World Affairs, Association for Progressive
Education; internet user since 1994
es, and I hope it happens soon - we need
some strong dissenting voices about the impact of this
technology in our lives. so far, its been mostly the
promise of a cure all, just like the past
"Industrial Revolution." - Denzil Meyers,
founder and president, Widgetwonder (internal branding
consultants and facilitators of corporate
storytelling), Applied Improvisation Network; internet
user since 1993
ut this is ALREADY happening. The Jihad
with which we are now at war is being led by people who
prefer the 7th century to the Internet. - Bob
Metcalfe, Ethernet inventor, founder of 3Com
Corporation, former CEO of InfoWorld, now a venture
capitalist and partner in Polaris Venture Partners;
internet user since 1970
here will be incidents, but I don't
think they'll be widespread or particularly
effective. After all, the nouveau-Luddites won't
have the benefit of technology for planning and
organizing, will they? - Reva Basch, consultant for
Aubergine Information Systems (online research expert);
internet user since 1973
onestly, given the (re)rise of integrist
religion worldwide (certainly pretty much for all
monotheist ones) and their hankering for obscurity,
I'm surprised that such acts of terror haven't
happened yet. Instead, they seem to have embraced the
Web as a means to broadcast their message, communicate
amongst themselves, and recruit new members. It is
certainly true that the fact that vast amounts of
information are available does not mean that people
access them, and it is very easy to remain insular on
the Web. That being said, I'd be surprised if there
wasn't at least one sect to attempt violent action
against the internet in the close future. - Robin
Berjon, W3C and Expway; internet user since
1996
ust can't see it. - Michael
Gorrell, senior VP and CIO for EBSCO; internet user
since 1994
agree, unfortunately, but in a few
generations this group will die out but in the meantime
they'll be a problem. I'm already familiar with
several colleagues who have chosen to only pay cash for
items and eschew cellular telephones because they can
be tracked. Being "always connected" is not
healthy, any more than it's healthy to be always
awake. It's also not particularly good for your
survival to be out of touch with your surroundings (the
wolf may be outside the door). I predict that
specialized intelligent filters will become popular to
self-select information for people and filter out
adware, pop-ups, nuisance mail and everything we
haven't thought of yet. The motivation will be to
reduce the annoyance factor with dealing with the
mountain of detritus that passes for information on the
network. Humans do a remarkably good job of making
decisions without having access to all the facts. We
should revel in that ability. - William Kearns,
assistant professor at the University of South Florida;
internet user since 1992
ith technology, the "Luddites"
won't be able to congeal enough to cause
significant impact. - Willis Marti, associate
director for networking, Texas A&M University;
internet user since 1983
hat is absurd. - Tom Snook, CTO, New
World Symphony, internet user since 1967
oday's eco-terrorists are the
harbingers of this likely trend. Every age has a small
percentage that cling to an overrated past of low
technology, low energy, life style. Led by people who
only know the idealized past, not the reality of often
painful past life styles, these Luddites will use
violence to seek to stop even very positive progress.
It is unclear to me how much of such aggression is the
nature of the individual who seeks a
'rationale' for her/his more personalized or
inherent rage versus the claimed positive goals of such
actors. - Ed Lyell, pioneer in issues regarding
internet and education, professor at Adams State
College; internet user since 1965
few people may make this choice. Some do
now. Most will not become violent, but we'll always
have a few like Jim Jones and David Koresh and a few
misguided folks will follow. - Joe Bishop, VP
business development, Marratech AB; internet user since
1994
nd not just Luddites; also people of
various political or religious stripes who want their
own separate communities. Once again, why is this a
prediction? This sort of thing has been going on for a
long time: Pilgrims, Amish, Branch Dravidians, etc. If
anything, it's becoming more difficult because
everything is becoming more interdependent. However,
better independent solar power generation could change
that. - John S. Quarterman, president
InternetPerils Inc.; publisher of the first
"maps" of the internet; internet user since
1974
agree to an extent. This is already happening today in
a limited fashion (there is a measurable population
that prefers "not to adopt"). I don't
believe that this group will adopt terror tactics to
get their point across though. Technological adoption
is the sum of choices made by a market. Technical
modernity can only progress so far as the mass market
chooses to allow it. And those that don't choose in
favor of technology will make other market choices. The
equilibrium will, in all likelihood, be much more
peaceful than the anti-techno-terrorist picture
you've painted. - Ross Rader, director of
research and innovation, Tucows Inc; internet user
since 1991
f
course, there are the accidental acts that turn into
harm; and there are potentially those who act against
technology. I believe the latter are a very short list.
I think that the former are a longer list and will not
create harm, if informed of the risks. And if they
indeed want to live without the technological benefits.
There is a different group not mentioned, or perhaps I
missed this: those who are left behind because of cost,
handicap, etc, whose anger and displacement is
targeted. What they want is access and the ability to
fully participate... their acts of anger or harm are
those that we should prevent - by addressing their
needs. - Marilyn Cade, CEO and principal, ICT
Strategies, MCADE, LLC; also with Information
Technology Association of America (business alliance);
internet user since 1986
hough I think that many people will
chose a slower, meaning-seeking way of living, they
will be a non-threatening, important fringe-group. Why
important? In 1994, an international conference in
London on resistance to new technologies concluded
that: (1) a certain amount of such resistance is useful
to society because it serves as a "rein" to
control possible excesses in the use of the new
technology; (2) such resistance is frequently the
product of bad design of the interface between the user
and the system (like the first automobiles, which
required every driver to know how to fix his own auto,
because there were no mechanics on every street-corner
- today, the interface design has improved, and the
whole auto is a "black box" to every driver).
Just as those who used to throw stones at
"horseless carriages" are no longer with us,
so, too, the crazies who protest against very useful
and environmentally-friendly technologies, will
eventually be drawn to other pursuits. - Fredric M.
Litto, professor, University of Sao Paulo; president,
ABED-Brazilian Association for Distance Education;
internet user since 1993
f
course there will be more Unabombers! - Cory
Doctorow, self-employed journalist, blogger, co-editor
of Boing Boing; born in Canada and now lives in London;
EFF Fellow; internet user since 1987
n
2020 I will be 75 years old. Many of the
"Baby-Boomers" will be over 70 years old.
This large group of people may indeed be sick of the
constant intrusion of technology and nostalgic for a
more human-centered time. If they get together with
young, philosophically-inspired anti-technology
activists, things could get interesting. The trick will
be to make the technology transparent and humane. -
Martin F. Murphy, IT consultant, City of New York;
internet user since 1993
eems like science fiction. More likely
they will simply remain disconnected - which is fine if
it's an informed choice. - Anthony Rutkowski,
VP for regulatory and standards, Verisign; a co-founder
and former executive director of the Internet Society;
active leader in International Telecommunication Union
(ITU); internet user since 1979
doubt there will be a new digital divide along the
lines postulated here. I think there will be a
continuum of technology use that can be measured as
"face time" versus "screen time." I
think there are good reasons that "screen
time" will never overtake "face time."
Well, maybe one exception. There will probably be some
pathological cases of being addicted to virtual
realities. Interestingly enough, this may be caused by
spending too much time in youth interacting with games
(and perfecting that genre) instead of interacting with
other kids (and perfecting the pleasures of
inter-personal relationships in the real world). By the
way, in 2020, it may no longer be "screens"
with which we interact. What I mean by "screen
time" in 2020 is time spent thinking about and
interacting with artificially-generated stimuli.
Human-to-human non-mediated interaction counts as
"face time" even if you do it with a
telephone or video wall. - Glenn Ricart, executive
director, Price Waterhouse Coopers Advanced Research;
member of the board of trustees of the Internet
Society; internet user since 1968
esistance has and always will be
technical. - Geert Lovink, media theorist,
professor and internet critic, Institute of Network
Cultures, University of Amsterdam; internet user since
1993
ype. Have you seen many radical Amish
converts lately? - Seth Finkelstein,
anti-censorship activist and programmer, author of the
Infothought blog and an EFF Pioneer Award
winner
he premise is that IT will make huge
advances in terms of its impact to the general
population. While I expect continuing advances in our
ability to harness IT for societal good (and bad), I
don't expect such dramatic changes in daily life.
The past 15 years - 1990 to 2005 - represented the
diffusion of the Internet and cell phones to the
general population. The preceding 15 years - 1975-1990
- represented the diffusion of the PC to the general
population. Although the advances in the past 30 years
have been remarkable, much of daily life is not so
different. Maybe we will finally see the
long-threatened convergence of information technologies
and, as a consequence, vastly improved capabilities.
But I am not so convinced. - Alan Inouye, internet
policy analyst previously with the Computer Science and
Telecommunications Board of the National Research
Council; internet user since 1990
think that this is a serious
possibility. But they stick with Luddite technology,
they won't be much of a threat. The real danger, in
my opinion, is the Bill Joy scenario: techno-savvy
terrorists. - Hal Varian, professor at University
of California-Berkeley; Google; internet user since
1986
his has already happened (e.g., the
Unabomber), so it is hardly a forecast. The question is
how many such attacks will happen and how large they
will be. While anti-technology activists may capture
our imagination, the risk will come from
fundamentalists generally, and religiously-motivated
eschatological terrorists in particular. But the good
news is that this trend will gradually burn itself. The
Caliphate will not return, the apocalypse will not
happen, and eventually world populations will come to
their senses. Even lone terrorists must swim in a
social sea, and the sea will become less tolerant of
their existence. Notions of "super-empowered
individuals" terrify us today in the same way that
H-bombs terrified our parents and grandparents half a
century ago. But if we are lucky, they will, like
H-bombs, remain more looming threat than actual
disaster. – Paul Saffo, forecaster and
strategist, director, Institute for the Future; serves
on many boards, including the Long Now Foundation;
Internet user since 1978
here are those that will always find an
excuse for antisocial and violent behaviour, and no
doubt a few of "these" will grab at any
excuse (though there are so many for them to choose
from already)... However the value of accessing
education/ information and trade/work opportunities
though the Internet should allow those who choose to go
"on grid" to respect those who don't
right to choose and visa versa. - Cheryl
Langdon-Orr, independent internet business operator and
director for ISOC-Australia; internet user since
1977
our thesis looks like politically
motivated propaganda. There is no real data that would
justify the connection of acts of terror with people
refusing to use communication technologies. In fact
exact opposite is a real danger - governments,
corporations and privileged circles eager to use new
technologies to facilitate terror and deprive people
from their rights. - Wladyslaw Majewski, OSI
CompuTrain SA, ISOC Polska; internet user since
1989
uman diversity dictates that some humans
will always disagree with the mainstream. - Luc
Faubert, consultant, dDocs Information Inc.; president
of Quebec's Internet Society chapter and an
ambassador to the World Summit on Information Society;
member of Computer Professionals for Social
Responsibility (CPSR); internet user since
1985
hung out with neo-Luddites in 1995-6.
This is not a new issue, and among them there was a big
debate about proper responses. Of course the anti-tech
people in Earth First! felt violence against machines
was okay. Most of the others including Amish, anti-tech
humanists felt this was quite wrong. I interviewed a
green anarchist name John Zerzan. He is a
"primitivist" yet in order to get speaking
engagement to promote his philosophy he had to get an
e-mail account. The colleges would not use the phone or
U.S. mail to contact him! - Steve Cisler, former
senior library scientist for Apple, founder of the
Association for Community Networking, now working on
public-access projects in Guatemala, Ecuador and
Uganda; internet user since 1989
his is, unfortunately, a likely outcome,
as we've already had instances of this already.
Examples include Ted Kaczinsky, or people setting fire
to homes and buildings built in environmental areas to
get their point across. "Pro-life" never
became a term until technology advanced to the point
that abortions could be done routinely and safely - now
some fringe groups have turned to violence. While
we've been overall lucky to not have experienced
significant terrorism or violence, the increasing
pervasiveness of technology could serve to anger
certain individuals enough to resort to violence. -
Philip Joung, Spirent Communications (wireless
positioning products); internet user since
1989
his is an extremely alarming proposition
akin to Sci-Fi movie storylines. However, it is indeed
a possibility - the digital divide could indeed divide
us into distinct cultural groups - no longer will it be
the "have" and the "have-nots," but
more likely it will be the "have-tech" and
"no-tech". - Rajnesh J. Singh, PATARA
Communications & Electronics Ltd., Avon Group, GNR
Consulting, ISOC Pacific Islands; internet user since
1993
t
is not Luddites who will do this, but others. By
becoming a valuable infrastructure, the Internet itself
will become a target. For some, the motivation will be
the Internet's power (and impact), for others it
will just be a target to disrupt because of potential
impact of such a disruption. - Thomas Narten, IBM
open-internet standards development; Internet
Engineering Task Force (IETF) liaison to ICANN;
internet user since 1983
here will always be deviants. It's
variety that helps ensure our survival, and even gives
our survival meaning and hope. However,
"Luddite" motivated violence will be limited,
compared to other motivations; we're going to have
much more serious problems then! (E.g.:
Political/religious reform, energy crises, GMO food
scares, small entities developing WMDs, etc.). -
Michael Steele; internet user since
1978
actually agree with this premise but
think that 15 years is too soon. It will take more time
or a dramatic technology event/disaster before we
realize what we have "given up" for
technology. - Sharon Lane, president,
WebPageDesign; internet user since 1990
here are indeed Luddites and Refuseniks,
and there are terrorists in the world. They will
continue to exist. - Fred Baker, CISCO Fellow,
CISCO Systems, Internet Society (ISOC) chairman of the
board; Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF); internet
user since 1987
uman nature being as it is, there will
be acts of terror using the ubiquitous ultra high
bandwidth capabilities, but not to a paralyzing degree.
Technology will always find a way to, if not
"stay" ahead of the "bad guys," at
least to "get" ahead of them and thus, keep
these destroyers at bay. - Don Heath, board member,
iPool, Brilliant Cities Inc., Diversified Software,
Alcatel, Foretec; internet user since 1988
don't believe that the Luddites/Refuseniks are to
blame for this prediction, and whilst I suspect the
prediction of the three kinds of people is correct, the
people that are left behind will not mainly be by their
own choice, it will be a choice made by their
politicians or cultural leaders. - Alan Levin,
programmer, designer, systems and network architect;
chairman of the ISOC South Africa chapter; serves on
the boards of Future Perfect Corporation, AfriNIC and
.za DNA; internet user since 1994
errorists burn down laboratories in
protest of animal-testing today, and fell power lines
in protest of fossil fuels. This will continue, sadly.
- John Browning, co-founder of First Tuesday, a
global network dedicated to entrepreneurs; former
writer for The Economist and other top publications;
internet user since 1989
t
seems natural that the social changes now underway will
lead to those who act against them. What is less clear
is whether they will do so without the help of
technology. I suspect that effective challenges to
these social and economic changes will only come about
through the use of information technologies. The model
here is not the Luddites, but the Zapatista movement. -
Alex Halavais, assistant professor, State
University of New York-Buffalo; internet user since
1984
here will absolutely be those who
attempt to live "off the grid." The changes
these technologies are bringing are massive, difficult
to conceive and terrifying to many. Information
overload is already a big problem. I'm not sure
that acts of terror or violence will take place simply
to protest technology, though that is certainly a
possibility. I do think that random acts of senseless
violence and destruction will continue and expand due
to a feeling of 21st century anomie, and an increasing
sense of lack of individual control. - Martin
Kwapinski, senior content manager, FirstGov.gov, the
U.S. Government's Official Web Portal; internet
user since 1997
ure, but this has happened for
generations. I don't see it as anything more than
what has always been - and going back to the desert has
its attractions. - Leigh Estabrook, professor,
University of Illinois; internet user since
1978
agree because it's such a big world
that this scenario will surely play out somewhere. That
doesn't mean that it will be important. - Peter
Levine, director of CIRCLE (Center for Information and
Research on Civic Learning and Engagement), University
of Maryland; internet user since 1993
strongly object to the ideological induction of the
comment "many of them by their own choice" in
the above sentences. "Many of them not by their
own choice" would have meant the same but caused
the contrary bias. I also do not think that people will
commit acts of terror or violence in protest against
technology, directly, but against social, political and
economic conditions that bind the development of
technologies as well as other human endeavours. -
Suely Fragoso, professor, Unisinos, Brazil;
internet user since 1994
agree however these will be a very small
number of people. History shows us that there will
always be refusniks living off the grid away from any
current technology. There will always be those who
choose not to access technologies even though they are
able and capable (financially, socially, culturally),
as well as those who would like to access but are
unable. - Mark Gaved, The Open University, United
Kingdom; internet user since 1987
o
you make the mistake of using the term
"Luddite" as a negative? Remember that the
original Luddites did not want to destroy technology
because they did not understand it. They did so because
they saw that it simply made a small group rich and a
large group poorer and even less able to control their
lives. If ICTs continue to be used for personal gain
and by powerful governments and corporations to control
freedoms and limit opportunities for the majority, then
the above is not only likely, but highly necessary. Not
quite storming the Winter Palace, but certainly
information terrorism on Mountain View and Redmond! -
Andy Williamson, managing director for Wairua
Consulting Limited, New Zealand; a member of the NZ
government's Digital Strategy Advisory Group;
internet user since 1990
ow could this not be true? There
won't be many, but even one would make this
prediction true. I don't anticipate this group will
be very large. - Randy Kluver, executive director,
Singapore Internet Research Centre; internet user since
1989
error acts, in my opinion, cannot be
expected by neo-Luddites, but by the groups resisting
modernization processes based on a more general
rejection of values and cultural practices it brings
about. People uneasy with technology in a
"modern," "Western" society will
probably represent a small minority. However, cultural
reaction to the all-pervasive technology is already
happening. It is not of the Luddite/Refusenik type, but
evident in the predilection for drawing, hand-made
objects and the like. Paradoxically enough, some of
these practices then get "recycled" in a
computer-based context. Lots of interplay of these
trends can be expected rather than an outright
rejection of technology. – Mirko Petric,
University of Zadar, Croatia; internet user since
1996
f
by "luddites and refuseniks" you mean
legislators, and if by "acts of terror . . . in
protest against technology" you mean reactionary
legislation, then yes, I endorse this prediction
heartily. Seriously, terrorists like the Luddites and
refuseniks like the Amish have proven to be interesting
but historically insignificant. The most important
resistance to technology comes from those who oppose
change for ideological, religious, economic, or
political reasons. These are the forces that have used
government power to stifle progress in many times and
places and could do so again. - Gary Chapman,
director, The 21st Century Project, LBJ School of
Public Affairs at the University of Texas - Austin,
internet user since 1982
agree with this statement, though the
acts of terror will likely be directed at those who are
controlling the technology at the expense of others
rather than the technology itself. - Sam Punnett,
president, FAD research (consultant on strategy,
marketing, and product-development issues related to
e-business); internet user since 1988
very modern culture has a
counter-culture. Every culture has extremists willing
to commit violence to express their views. Nothing new
here. - Scott Moore, online community manager,
Helen and Charles Schwab Foundation; internet user
since 1991
his is possible, especially in light of
the scenario just presented where individual lives lost
their privacy. Technology changes so rapidly that
keeping up with it can be both a burden and tiresome
and often a distraction form just being able to get on
with what you really want to do that I can well imagine
some people forming communes without any of this modern
communication technology. - Barbara Craig, Victoria
University; internet user since 1993
od bless them. Or was that us? -
Edward Lee Lamoureux, associate professor, Bradley
University
he advantage of the technical
environment is choice. However, the long-term cost of
these individual decisions may have to be borne by the
folks who do engage the technology. - Jim Jansen,
assistant professor, Penn State University; internet
user since 1993
s
highly probable that we will have terror acts in the
networked information society but not by technological
discontents. To transform in active opposition, the
Luddist disagreements would need to converge with
another political or social ideologies. - Raul
Trejo-Delarbre, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de
Mexico; internet user since 1993
ventually this is a likely scenario
(although not necessarily by 2020). However, it
doesn't have to go this way. Our choices in regards
to access will impact this outcome substantially. -
Nan Dawkins, co-founder of RedBoots Consulting;
internet user since 1997
echnology is the key to small groups
projecting power. While this may be the case in some
instances, it will not be a major force as the rest of
the world will simply route around them. If anything,
conflicts will be between those who use technology for
different ends. - Ted M. Coopman, activist, social
science researcher, instructor at the University of
Washington, Seattle, member of AoIR board of
directors
his will probably happen - people are
already doing this in modern societies and committing
acts of terror against modern societies, but I really
wanted to disagree because it's too much like a
synopsis for a Michael Crichton book/movie/TV series. -
Janine van der Kooy, information
management/librarian; internet user since
1997
'm sure it will happen, but I
don't think it's going to happen a lot or with
many people. We already have people, such as the Amish,
who spurn modern technology. - Danny Sullivan,
editor-in-chief, SearchEngineWatch.com; internet user
since 1994
hile the followers of Mr. Ludd may have
been able to smash up cotton mills, those who are left
outside the Internet have only limited options for
experiencing or understanding what it is that they are
excluded from. It seems more likely to me that existing
terror groups will attack the system from within,
rather than without. - Mike Kent, professor of
social policy, Murdoch University, Australia; internet
user since 1994
his I believe. But I don't think
they will be Luddites. They may just be Chinese, poor,
or really angry. - Torill Mortensen, associate
professor, Volda University College, Norway; internet
user since 1991
y
2020, every citizen of the world will be as closely
monitored as the Palestinians are in the Gaza strip
today. No one will be able to get off the grid. -
Charlie Breindahl, external lecturer, University of
Copenhagen, IT University of Copenhagen; internet user
since 1996
his is pretty much impossible for people
who want access to social resources. People who never
had access may continue to not have access, but that is
not Luddite. They make like not having access. However
those who have grown up with access to social resources
have lost the skills to live without them, and they
will be drawn back to the grid in times of need. -
Jason Nolan, associate professor, Ryerson University,
Canada; internet user since 1987
e
will suffer terrorist attack but not against
technology. The terrorist will use the technology to
accomplish their goals in economical terms or identity
fundamentalism. - Carlos Fernandez, CCRTV, telecom
company in Barcelona, Ph.D. student
here will be non-adopters but that might
not launch a terrorist cause. The true terrorists will
continue to use the Internet for bad causes such as
hacking and posting gruesome terrorists acts. The
Internet provides more opportunities for terrorists to
show their deeds. Thus, they would not kill the goose
that lays the eggs. - Richard Yee, competitive
intelligence analyst, AT&T; internet user since
1995
gree there will be refuseniks, but not
enough Unabombers to make it a trend. Prediction:
"Luddite" will be retaken by technoskeptics
as a positive term. - Barry Parr, analyst for the
media group, Jupiter Research; internet user since
1990
or sure there is another Unabomber out
there somewhere. - Kevin Schlag, director of web
development and IT for Western Governor's
University, BYU-Hawaii; internet user since
1993
ome people who do not or cannot adapt to
these new technologies will feel threatened by them or
by their power and a small number will probably try to
destroy them. - Michael S. Cann Jr., CEO of Affinio
Corporation; internet user since 1992
aybe this will be true but I believe it
is much more likely that effective terrorists will be
early adapters of technology and will use technological
sophistication to organize and commit acts of terror. -
Carter Headrick, director of grassroots and field
operations for Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids; internet
user since 1993
es, but nothing unusual nor something to
get excited about. The sort of stuff you describe is
what people do when their environment changes. This
will be just another rendition of the same process.
- Bud Levin, program head/psychology and
commander/policy and planning, Blue Ridge Community
College; Waynesboro (VA) Police Department; internet
user since 1988
nother niche. No big deal though mostly
peaceful except when the wackos among every group
strike randomly. - Michael Collins, CEO, internet
user since 1996
his is a dark reality, but call them any
name, the have and have-nots are separated. - Stan
Felder, president and CEO, Vibrance Associates, LLC;
internet user since 1985
hose attacking the system will be its
critics from within, not without. - Toby Miller,
professor, University of California-Riverside; internet
user since 1990
t
is likely that this disruption will cause social
frictions and acts of vandalism/violence. - Steffan
Heuer, U.S. correspondent, brand eins
Wirtschaftsmagazin; internet user since
1994
he New Terrorism might be
cyber-terrorism. This will be a rebellion against the
mass culture of technology. - Howard Finberg,
director of interactive media, The Poynter Institute;
internet user since 1991
hile there will be Luddites and
refusniks who commit acts of terror or violence in
protest against technology, I believe the numbers will
be small. Most will just choose to live in isolation
and in separate societies. - Mitchell Kam,
Willamette University, Oregon; internet user since
1979
e
call them Luddites now, when they smash the nearby
server farm, do we then call them servites? - A.
White, a respondent preferred not to share more
identifying information.
no-brainer - of course some will. And some may become
violent. Hopefully, not too many, and not too often.
- Jeffrey Branzburg, educational consultant for
National Urban Alliance, Center for Applied
Technologies in Education and other groups; internet
user since 1997
t's difficult to imagine how someone
would pose a terror act against something that is
openly accessible to the masses. The internet is not an
"institution" in the definition of social
sciences. Anybody can use the web if they like to, even
if it's to publish anti-web ideas! - Nicolas
Ritoux, freelance technology reporter for La Presse,
Montréal and other media outlets; internet user since
1995
ot all nations will be equally
connected, just as today not all nations are equally
affluent. But the more digitally advanced a society
overall, the more a digital underclass can be a threat,
and the greater the gap between the digital haves and
have-nots the greater the tension in certain
circumstances. We can imagine the UN (and Bono?)
organizing "upgrades" for countries with a
disproportionate number of digitally disadvantaged
people. - Ralph Blanchard, investor, information
services entrepreneur; internet user since
1994
am not sure that they will self-segregate; religious
and nationalistic fundamentalism may restrict
people's access. - Janet Salmons, president,
Vision2Lead Inc. (consultants on organizational
leadership and development and virtual learning);
internet user since 1985
here are other things to get riled up
about - religion, national identity and belonging, and
other cultural elements will be far more irritating
than any on-grid and off-grid dichotomy. - Susan
Wilhite, design anthropologist, Habitat for Humanity;
internet user since 1993
y
agreement with this prediction is based on violent
actors' use of information as a pretext for their
actions rather than the spontaneous demonstration of an
anti-ICT sect. - Ellen K. Sullivan, former
diplomat, policy fellow, George Mason University School
of Public Policy; internet user since 1988
uddites and Refuseniks may commit terror
acts, but I question whether their aim will be at the
Internet or technology. My sense is that technology
will become like skin - so common that we forget
we're in it. Devices will be infused with some
manner of intelligence and fit into all manner of
objects, from clothing to prescriptions. So it
won't be a simple thing to live "off the
grid" - unless, of course, you're a Unabomber
type. But those types are rare and live only at the
antisocial fringe. - Barry K. Chudakov, principal,
The Chudakov Company; internet user since
1989
his is a premise for a sci-fi novel. To
the extent that this occurs today, it will continue.
But it will continue to be a fringe activity. If this
were rephrased in terms of major political or religious
spheres - e.g. North Korea, certain sects of Islam -
opting out of global connectivity, there is a more
interesting discussion. - Kerry Kelley, VP product
marketing, SnapNames.com; internet user since
1986
onstant change will spook some into
trying to slow everyone down through horrific and
catastrophic terrorist attacks against information
infrastructure and all that rely upon it. - Sean
Mead, consultant for Interbrand Analytics, Design
Forum, Mead Mead & Clark and other companies;
internet user since 1989
ever happened before, not going to
happen in the future. Technology has been, is and will
be a force for liberation and progress. - Rob
Atkinson, director, Technology and New Economy Project,
Progressive Policy Institute (a think tank); previously
project director at the Congressional Office of
Technology Assessment; internet user since
1993
uddites already commit terror acts. For
example, there are religious extremists that aren't
willing to modernize their faith. Living off the grid
(comfortably) will be extremely difficult in 2020. -
Brian T. Nakamoto, Everyone.net (a leading provider
of outsourced email solutions for individuals and
companies around the world); internet user since
1990
he nature of the technology is to
facilitate communication between individuals, rapidly
diminishing the likelihood that violent objection will
accompany technological change. Did anyone violently
object to cell phones? To instant messaging? To email?
The cat is out of the bag. People will be left behind -
some by choice, but the majority will simply be unable
to afford to participate in the pace of change - a
technological change that is individual and
consumer-driven, and consequently requires significant
disposable income. - Nicco Mele, internet
strategist, political web architecture
expert
iolent animal rights activists already
operate, demonstrating that groups in opposition to
modern rationalism already exist. - Henry Potts,
professor, University College, London; internet user
since 1990
here should have been another choice
here: can't say. The psyche of Man is to grow as
"powerful" (interpret it for yourself) as thy
neighbor, no one would want to be left behind. Violence
and terror - may be the cause vanishes, may not be
intra-globe but inter-planetary (or intra universe!)
Extremism may be passe! - Alik Khanna, Smart
Analyst Inc. (business employing financial analysts in
India); internet user since 1996
cts of cyber-terror will come from the
same sources that terror comes from now. It will not be
Luddites. Rather it will be those who are struggling
against the losses of freedom, privacy, autonomy, etc.
who lack the resources to struggle in conventional ways
and who will resort to whatever methods are available
to them in asymmetrical wars. Ironically, increasing
reliance on vulnerable technologies will make cyber
attacks increasingly attractive to the relatively
powerless. - Benhamin Ben-Baruch, senior market
intelligence consultant and applied sociologist,
Aquent, General Motors, Eastern Michigan University;
internet user since 1980
ut it cuts both ways. Even today, a sign
of one's importance or prestige in business circles
can be seen by how little the person interacts with
ICTs - CEOs having their assistants read all their
emails and print out only relevant ones for them to
read comes to mind - and this ability to filter out the
informational noise will likely be as much a sign of
one's power and importance as the powerless person
who drops out. - Shawn McIntosh, lecturer in
strategic communications, Columbia University; internet
user since 1992
nce again, this has happened and is
happening. Why should we expect it to cease happening
in the future? If there is a resolution out there, it
will not have surfaced by 2020. - Walt Dickie, VP
and CTO, C&R Research; internet user since
1992
here are always extremists in our
society and I do not see they could alter history in
the long run. - Yiu Chan, internet user since
1995
here have been contrarians to every
domain of human existence. The Luddites may form loose
confederations of cells, similar to current terror
organizations. But in an adaptable, networked world,
they will either be forced to use the tools they decry
(which will make them accessible to law enforcement) or
they will be ineffectual due to their isolation. -
Jeff Hammond, VP, Rhea and Kaiser; internet user
since 1992
TO-type protests grow in scale and
scope, driven by the increasing economic stratification
in society. Some fringe groups or even cults emerge
that isolate themselves from society, using virtual
private networks. - Peter Kim, senior analyst,
marketing strategy and technology team, Forrester
Research; internet user since 1993
ome will make the choice not to
participate online, and many of them will be happy. I
also think we will have a third group that might be
important. A great number of people will still need to
do "manual labor," not having much benefit
from the web. Some will be poor, uneducated, etc. The
socioeconomic gaps in society may become larger as a
result. - Sturle J. Monstad, University of Bergen,
Norway; internet user since 1989
here's not much of a chance for this
to happen, as the Luddites will - by definition - lack
the communication tools that even the most primitive
collaborations require today. - Roger Scimé,
self-employed web designer; internet user since
1994
hile this will occur (it occurs today),
the 2020 version of the Luddite will be the
Open-Sourcer, tech-savvy people who refuse not the
technology, but participation in the manipulative
culture. - Daniel Conover, new-media developer,
Evening Post Publishing; internet user since
1994
on't we already have this? It seems
to me that allowing/encouraging others to create a
place for themselves off the grid is a viable solution
for them. We can use the power and influence of the web
to support others and encourage them to participate. -
Walter J. Broadbent, VP, The Broadbent Group;
internet user since 1994
eople who embrace technology will and do
also commit terror acts. Depending on how one defines a
"terrorist act," one can say that Enron
traders acted like terrorists by shutting down power
plants to drive up energy shares. New York City MTA
strikers committed terrorist acts by disabling its
customers and cohorts and their ability to move about
New York City. Don't hackers and media pirates
commit terrorist acts on technology and media
businesses and the viability of the people who work in
those industries? Simply taking advantage of technology
does not make one immune from thinking about or
committing terrorist acts. - Elle Tracy, president
and e-strategies consultant, The Results Group;
internet user since 1993
uch groups will be too insignificant in
size and importance if technology is not explicitly
forced upon us by anyone (that's the only thing
that truly cause violent and targeted re-action). -
Mikkel Holm Sørensen, software and intelligence
manager, Actics Ltd. (ethical management systems);
internet user since 1997
nd the other way round - non
technophiles will be outcasts, social pariahs outside
the "compulsary" net of information, data and
success. As long as we model this world without taking
into account freedom of choice and ethics, that is.
- Miguel Sicart Vila, junior research associate,
Information Ethics Group, Oxford University; internet
user since 1997
ince the internet will continue to be
disruptive, it will garner the attention of luddites
and refusniks. What will be interesting is to see how
many of these develop from the internet generation,
those teenagers now who have grown up with internet
ever present. Will a portion of this generation be
turned against the internet? - Jeff Corman,
government policy analyst, Industry Canada, Government
of Canada; internet user since 1995
ou betcha. I'm surprised that it is
not already more prevalent. - Cary Curphy,
operations research analyst, U.S. Army; internet user
since 1989
here will continue to be a continuum,
from people who want the latest in information
technology, whatever it may be, to those who seek
pleasure and knowledge in other less-technical ways.
Thank heavens. - Cheris Kramarae, professor, Center
for the Study of Women in Society, University of
Oregon; internet user since 1976
think the people left behind will fight to get the
chance to get in. Internet is not a way of life; it is
just an ordinary tool. For that reason, people who
actually live in communities who chose to segregate
from modern society are already using Internet to fight
for their right to stay apart and to connect with other
communities like theirs. - María Laura Ferreyra,
strategic planner, Instituto Universitario Aeronautico;
ISOC member in Argentina; internet user since
1996
adly, I agree with this. However, living
mostly "off the grid" will remove one of the
best ways to stop terrorism - a citizenry that is
informed and engaged, which tips the balance to the
ignorant who are far too prevalent today. - Mike
Samson, interactive media writer and producer, Creative
Street Media Group; internet user since
1989
his could well be true if the Internet
is totally commercialized. In the same way that
eco-terrorism has grown out of the frustrations of
environmentalists who feel that they have been ignore
and disenfranchised, so too could others if the
Internet becomes a capital driven marketplace. -
Rick Gentry, acquisition coordinator, Greenpeace;
internet user since 1995
t
is possible that there is a division in the society
among people to favor and against the new technologies,
but I don't believe that they arrive to the end to
commit acts of terror or violence in protest against
technology. - Sabino M. Rodriguez, MC&S
Services; internet user since 1994
O. Dumb question. - Doug Olenick,
computer technology editor, TWICE (This Week In
Consumer Electronics) Magazine; internet user since
1996
s
long as you recognize religious fundamentalists as
luddites as well. - Alix L. Paultre, executive
editor, Hearst Business Media, Smartalix.com, Zep Tepi
Publishing; internet user since 1996
sn't this already the case?
Technological advancement always breeds a certain
amount of displacement, and nothing to date will
compare to the eventual impact of the Internet as a
communication medium. - Al Amersdorfer, president
and CEO, Automotive Internet Technologies; internet
user since 1985
his question, itself, has a
pro-technology, elitist bias. Probably some will do
some of the outcomes suggested; it's presently
worded in a too continguent, inadequately nuanced way.
I suspect that some of the present Muslim antipathy
results from traditional economic inequalities and
concerns with corrupting effects of modern [read
Western] mass, information-driven culture/economies. -
Joe Schmitz, assistant professor, Western Illinois
University; internet user since 1985
ure. The Unabomber was only the first
dissident to actively attempt to subvert the overriding
technology and information mechanisms. But once again,
this is just history repeating itself. There will
always be those seeking an idyllic past and who view
subversion of the present as the only path. -
Suzanne Stefanac, author and interactive media
strategist, dispatchesfromblogistan.com; internet user
since 1989
elf-segregation exists today, in that
the Internet allows full exposure with minimal or no
consequence. Again, using the Gaming Model, where there
are 5+ Million players on World of Warcraft network one
can partner with a group and/or operate solo in a
virtual world. One can play forever taking on a virtual
character (s) and nobody knows their real self.
Terrorists exist today in the form of hackers, and I
anticipate as we relinquish more controls to the
computers and networks, they will be able to remotely
commit any act they want. - Jim (Jacomo) Aimone,
director of network development, HTC; internet user
since 2000
he revolution of the have-nots will be
based on failure to attain their expectations of the
"good life" and the sense of loss of control.
- Terry Ulaszewski, publisher, Long Beach Live
Community News; internet user since 1989
he key word is "Some." It
seems likely to me that they will be a very small
minority. I think the access to communications network
technology will be so inexpensive that there will be
few who are "left out"; more may "opt
out," but that may become harder to do as access
becomes almost universal. - David Irons, VP,
co-founder, AScribe Newswire; internet user since
1993
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