Internet Governance Forum-USA, 2011
Review: Implications of Internet 2025 Scenarios

Brief description:

Earlier in the day at IGF-USA, participants divided into three groups to discuss potential-future scenarios for the Internet in 2025. These included discussions titled "Regionalization of the Internet," "Youth Rising and Reigning" and "Government Prevails." At this session, moderators briefed the plenary crowd on these discussions, and they and other IGF-USA participants in the audience weighed in with their observations. 

Details of the session:
Building upon an experiment that had succeeded at the previous year’s meeting, the Internet Governance Forum-USA presented a set of hypothetical situations, ranging between idyllic or dystopic depending on the preferences of those in attendance. Splitting off into three groups, the 2025 scenario facilitators and members of their audience discussed the pros and cons of the end results Building upon an experiment that had succeeded at the previous year’s meeting, the Internet Governance Forum-USA presented a set of hypothetical situations, ranging between idyllic or dystopic depending on the preferences of those in attendance. Splitting off into three groups, panelists and members of the audience discussed the pros and cons of the end results
The moderators of each of the three groups presented the outcomes of those sessions during the afternoon plenary of IGF-USA 2011. 
The “Government Prevails” Scenario:
Presented by Steve DelBianco

The talkback that was perhaps the most pessimistic and grimly reminiscent of the most bleak of science fiction was “Government Prevails,” led by Steven DelBianco of NetChoice. It depicts not victorious and noble governments deservedly beloved by its populace, but ones that, through a series of calamities, find themselves with the responsibility and power over maintaining surveillance over their entire citizenry.

Natural disasters of unimaginable magnitude and hacking sprees running rampant across the globe, in this scenario, coupled with rapid advancements in mobile and surveillance technologies, give the world’s governments both the mandates (since its presumed that they win the public trust after being the only entities capable of responding to such horrendous occurrences) and means to fulfill a vision reminiscent, albeit not quite as menacing, as that of George Orwell’s “1984.”

“I woke up this morning feeling fine, and now I’m afraid,” one member of the session said after hearing about the timeline.

Each of the elements of the prevailing government could be, as separate entities, taken as positives. Many responded warmly to the possibility of a more advanced version of London’s CCTV, scanning entire cities in the hopes of preventing crime, or smartphones that were not only mandated to keep tabs on your location at all times, but which could be used to turn in violators of strict anti-pollution legislation. But at the end of the day, it’s still a world in which the government is given the sole proprietorship of its people, with a seemingly omniscient awareness of their every little move.

To keep it from happening, the workshop decided, industries should obey the laws to avoid losing public trust, and they work together with the government to avoid the current philosophy of “government vs. private business interests.” Governments, obviously, shouldn’t grab the chance at such power and instead opt for a more open and decentralized Internet.

As for IGF? It should stick to its current duties and engage with all stakeholders, though such a future, while seemingly horrendous to Western minds, DelBianco mused, could be equally as appealing to those in countries such as Iran and China. This, in the end, illustrated one of the most evocative elements of the hypothetical exercise. Just as one man’s trash can be another man’s treasure, one man’s dystopia can be another man’s utopia.

You can find details from the earlier session that fed into this session here: http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/igf_usa/igf_usa_2011_scenario_government_prev.xhtml
The “Regionalization of the Internet” Scenario:
Presented by Andrew Mack
The session titled "Regionalization of the Internet" revolved around a prospective world in which individuals are either in or out on the Web, blocked off from those deemed to be outside of their own government’s sphere of influence. 

Andrew Mack, of AMGlobal Consulting and the session’s lead moderator, described it as, “interesting, but a bit depressing. We took the Angel of Death view on this.”

The idea of the Internet as an open highway, in this world, is replaced by one replete with tolls, as cross-regional access is limited, or in the worst cases, cut off entirely. Because of national security concerns, economic weakness, pressure from climate change and the massive new adoption rates of the “next billion” Internet users found in emerging markets, the Internet becomes a series of castles.

Some in the session actually thought the scenario fit the present more than an illusory future, and the more dire of descriptions could become the status quo within five years. To prevent it, governments were urged to be flexible and practice their own advice, industries were urged to increase their focus on the next billion users, who as of yet have no champion to advance their causes, and IGF was urged to resist the advance of ITU, the United Nation’s mass communications arm.

(You can find details from the earlier session that fed into this session here: http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/igf_usa/igf_usa_2011_scenario_Internet_islands.xhtml.)

The “Youth Rising and Reigning” Scenario:
Presented by Pablo Molina
The second session, led by Pablo Molina of the Georgetown Law Center, “Youth Rising and Reigning” projected a world with the youth-led revolutions in the Middle East spreading to Europe and other disaffected masses taking up the call to utilize new Internet-based technologies to assert their own independence in light of continued economic and civil strife. And though many agreed that there’s a strong plausibility of “Youth Rising …” a key distinction that strikes at its heart was made.

“The defining factor is digital literacy and mastery, not age,” Molina told the audience, bringing to earth the notion that everyone younger than 30 is an Internet messiah, and bringing to light the fact that with the right competencies and skill, people of any age can have an influence on the Web.

Despite the positive outlook of the scenario, an important distinction was made: Bad actors will always find ways to capitalize on new advances, and, inadvertently, some innocents will be inconvenienced or, at worst, suffer as a result of those ill intentions.

To encourage, if not the revolutionary subtext of the hypothetical situation the political and societal awareness of young people, all means to promote participation in political discourse were advocated by the participants in this group discussion, be they through industry continuing its innovative advances, governments empowering instead of reining in their citizens, or IGF supporting the participation of more and more stakeholders to ensure all voices are accounted for. And, of course the participants concluded, education, coming in the form of digital literacy, is a must for the youth to have the tools to, at most, incite a just revolution, and at the least, fight for their own causes in an effective way once the Internet further integrates itself within society.

You can find details from the earlier session that fed into this session here: http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/igf_usa/igf_usa_2011_scenario_youth_rise.xhtml
- Morgan Little
A selection of Twitter reports
on this IGF-USA 2011 event:

2025 Future Scenarios facilitators to share outcomes of morning scenarios; audience highly encouraged to interact. #IGF11-USA

Youth Rising and Reigning Scenario result: Urges industry must continue listening to citizens; government must empower citizens. -Pablo Molina

The Internet has to be ON for youth to get job done. An underground movement that can't communicate isn't powerful -Steve DelBianco #IGF11

A Government Prevails scenario by 2025 - online social media run by govts, online censorship could go global #IGF11-USA

We’re trying to avoid that 1984 scenario. -Andrew Mack #IGF11-USA

How? Public should respect laws and govts, realizing it's not "us vs. them"; govts, don’t overregulate, fight for online freedom. #IGF11

Those who work on the Hill in DC have a responsibility to educate politicians about new ways to use the Internet. #IGF11-USA

Too often governments want to regulate technology, when it is individuals' behavior that is the concern. #IGF11-USA

People would need to agree on laws and definition of privacy in order for government to prevail in the Internet. #IGF11-USA

Regionalization by 2025: govts need to practice what they preach, focus on next billion users, adapt Internet in other languages. #IGF11

The best way to preserve what you love about the Internet is to take seriously the threats to what you like about the Internet. #IGF11-USA

If you want to preserve what you like about the Internet, you have to make your voice heard - DelBianco #IGF11-USA
 

The multimedia reporting team for Imagining the Internet at IGF-USA 2011 included the following Elon University students and alumni: Jeff Ackermann, Natalie Allison, Ronda Ataalla, Ashley Barnas, Joe Bruno, Kristen Case, Lianna Catino, Nicole Chadwick, Kellye Coleman, Colin Donohue, Steven Ebert, Jeff Flitter, Anna Johnson, Elizabeth Kantlehner, Melissa Kansky, Morgan Little, Brian Meyer, Julie Morse, Derek Scully, Rachel Southmayd, Katy Steele, Jeff Stern, Bethany Swanson and Carolyn VanBrocklin.
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