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, the founder of Open the Future,
writes about the intersection of emerging
technologies and cultural transformation. In
2003, he co-founded WorldChanging.com. Cascio has
spoken about future possibilities at venues
including FuturShow3000 in Bologna, Italy, and
the TED 2006 conference. After several years at
scenario planning pioneer Global Business
Network, he went on to craft scenarios on topics
including energy, nuclear proliferation, and
sustainable development.
What is your
greatest fear for the future of networked
technologies? I fear that we'll end
up in this kind of tiered environment where
organizations that have a primary and, frankly,
legal requirement to maximize their shareholder
income take steps that serve the short-term
maximization of income while reducing the ability
for people to experiment with the web, for people
to innovate online, and to provide access to
communities and to people who have not had access
before.
What is your most
fervent hope for the future of networked
technologies? Accessibility. Both the
ability of people with various disabilities to
have better access to the content online and
communications with each other as well as access
for people in communities that have been
historically or culturally cut off or have
limited contact. The internet has become such an
important part of how the global culture has
evolved that it's important that we all can
become participants in it. Any kinds of
technologies and approaches that reduce the
ability of all of the planet's citizens to be
participants in the evolution of the planet are
inherently unethical. We need to increase
accessibility. Period.
What technology
will have the greatest impact on our everyday
lives the next 10 years? The continued
development of personal sensory technologies such
as camera phones and the like. There are some
remarkable products in the lab that enable a
greater sensory footprint for handheld mobile
devices – cellular or wi-fi based or
whatever – that allow you to both watch
yourself and record what's going on around
you. I refer to it as the participatory
panopticon, and that is the world what we wear
and what we carry keeps track of what's going
on and provides to us something like a Tivo for
our life … Microsoft, HP, Nokia are
working on that. I think within the next 10 years
or so we will see at least the availability of
these kinds of technologies. More broadly,
we're moving toward greater use of
biotechnologies. Within the next 10 years
we'll see some of the first approaches to
molecular nanotechnology. Another piece that I
find really important is the emergence of
fabrication-based technologies like 3D printers.
We already have 3D printers right now used by
organizations like aerospace companies to
actually print out wings for aircraft and the
like. But what we'll see over the next 10
years is this - not just a convergence of
technological approaches, but a re-divergence,
basically they come together and split off again
- of the multitude of methods of production,
multitude of methods of communication, multitude
of methods of accessing and understanding the
world around us. This is going to be a really
interesting decade, both for the challenges that
we have in store, environment, cultural,
developmental, and the tools that we'll have
to take advantage of the opportunities for
success … We aren't doomed. The future
is in our own hands, and we can make the best of
it.
Looking out more
than 10 years, what development will have the
greatest impact on society?
High-bandwidth, wireless connections. This is
actually, again we go back to network neutrality
and the role of telecommunication companies.
There's a real struggle going on right now
between cellular-based models of wireless
communication and wi-fi-based models,
internet-based models of wireless communication.
You see, for example, a lot of communities around
the country that have tried to develop free
municipal wireless systems that, in turn, have
had telecommunication companies filing suit and
their lobbyists are pushing through new state
laws to have free municipal wireless shut down.
In the ideal world – the ideal, plausible
world – you could have a country where you
could go pretty much anywhere that's even
moderately urbanized and have a decent
internet-based wireless connection and be able to
use Skype or some other wireless-based IP to
connect to other people over voice, browse the
web, do whatever and not have to rely on being
tied into Verizon or T-Mobile or whatever.
What do you think
policymakers should do to ensure a positive
future for networked technologies? By
far what I would tell them is to support network
neutrality. The strength of the internet has been
its end-to-end nature – the fact that
anyone could come in and plug in a piece of
software as long as it obeyed the protocols and
be able to get it to work with a similar piece of
software at the other end. That's very
distinct from what happens with – for
example – cell phone networks, where it all
gets mediated through the owning companies,
it's a centralized control system.
Unfortunately, what's happening is that a lot
of the telecom companies – frustrated that
they haven't been able to get the same kind
of money from the internet that they have from
their other, more controlled networks – are
pushing to exert that kind of centralized
ownership over the net. So there have been a
number of proposals to strengthen or to reaffirm
network neutrality and I would encourage
policymakers to see those through.
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