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is a MMORPG
designer and the former chief creative officer
for Sony Online Entertainment. He joined Origin
in 1995 as part of the original Ultima Online
team. He also worked with Ultima Online: The
Second Age, and served as lead designer for
Ultima Online Live (the ongoing service for this
online RPG) until 1999. Raph writes and speaks
frequently on online game and community issues,
and maintains a popular online website. He wrote
the book "A Theory of Fun for Game
Design," published in 2004.
What is your
greatest fear for the future of networked
technologies? Humans grew up in tribes
where you didn't get to pick who else was in
your tribe. We grew up in situations where we had
to learn to get along with people who had
opinions that were different from ours, and
networked technologies are allowing us to form
tribes that are homogenous. They're allowing
us to find groups of people who are just like us.
And I think it's wonderful to be able to find
my tribe of people who read the same books I do
and like my music and watch the same TV shows and
in general share the same view of the world.
That's wonderful, because it makes you feel
like you're not alone any more. But on the
other hand I think it's incredibly important
for the human race to be exposed to multiple
viewpoints and to get to interact with people
that we wouldn't necessarily interact with if
given our choice. One of the real risks in the
networked environment is the lessened friction of
connecting with people. People will choose to
hang out with people they already know. They will
choose to read the books they already know they
will like, rather than taking a flyer on
something new. Statistical analysis shows that
this is the case when we look at all of the
communities of interest that have formed on the
internet. You can graph, for example, what
political books people read, on Amazon, and what
you find is Democrats won't read the
right-wing books and Republicans won't read
the left-wing books and almost no books cross the
divide and are read by both, and that's a
very dangerous thing for our political
establishment. That would be my worry about this
low-friction information culture. Biology teaches
us homogenous cultures are not a good thing
– they're very vulnerable.
What is your most
fervent hope for the future of networked
technologies? Empowerment, diversity,
creativity. I don't believe in a future that
is the centralized content creators, the
big-business bodies pushing the content down. I
don't think that that is a viable business
model, just in terms of creating the content and
so on. And I also believe that humanity started
out telling stories to each other around
campfires, playing music in the parlors, sharing
their creativity with friends and with family,
and I think that really that's been a lot of
the trend. A lot of historical trends pushed us
apart from one another in many different ways,
and I think the networked environment is actually
allowing us to move closer together and share
some of those things that we didn't have
before.
What technology
will have the greatest impact on our everyday
lives the next 10 years? I'd have to
go for something that is really ubiquitous. When
you look today at the impact that something like
the cell phone had, or the web, both those things
have really infiltrated into daily life that were
inconceivable 10 years ago. I think that in the
next 10 years we're going to see more
convergence of the web in to mobile and that
that's going to have a very big impact
Everything from the geospatial web and annotation
of the real world to constant connectivity
– always on, people always knowing where to
find you. I think the thing that will freak out
everybody is the amount of personal data that is
going to be readily available to everybody all
the time. But most people will be willing to
trade that for the convenience of being able to
carry their phone around and have it also be
their credit card. Something as simple as that is
the kind of thing that will happen slowly enough
people won't necessarily feel like the world
has changed around them, but that in practice is
going to have just tremendous impact on the way
people live their lives.
Looking out more
than 10 years, what development will have the
greatest impact on society? It's not
going to be something regarding networking. The
things that are really startling and amazing that
are coming down the pike will be in biotech,
they're in nanotech, you know, they're
not in just hardware. And they're not just in
network conductivity. We're going to have
things like the public object that is
broadcasting its state, but where it really
starts to get weird, honestly –
particularly in biotech – is we start doing
really interesting things with curing some
long-standing diseases. Diabetes is one of the
ones I would put on the list. It's on the hit
list, thank goodness, for the next couple
decades. Real strides are being made on a variety
of other things – cancer, and so on. What
that will do to life span and then to the
economics of the world is extremely interesting.
What starts happening with bio-enhancements of
various sorts and the things we can do with
nanotechnology, those to me are the things that
are really disruptive beyond conductivity. Most
of the extrapolation that I think we do on
conductivity is assuming more of the same, but
the interesting thing is what happens when the
bones in your eardrum are spitting out an RSS
feed. Now, we're talking. Now, we're in
the realm of the weird.
What do you think
policymakers should do to ensure a positive
future for networked technologies? Learn
about it – that is the biggest challenge.
Most policymakers, by and large our policymaking
bodies are composed of old men. They're not
necessarily in touch with what youth is thinking
about, they're not necessarily in touch with
what's already happening. We see that
repeated over and over and over again.
Congressional hearings on MySpace are probably
coming up. We've already had Congressional
hearings on video games. Before that it was
labeling on rock and roll or whatever. It's
really important to stay in touch with what
people are actually doing. Until the day when our
senators are all text-messaging under the table
as they're listening for legislation,
they're not going to understand what the
cultural climate really is. This is a problem
that fixes itself over time, but it's still
important that before making big decisions now
they take the time to educate themselves about
what they're deciding on.
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