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is a technical evangelist for
Microsoft and the author of the popular blog,
Scobleizer. Scoble has long been known as a
prominent advocate of both RSS technology and the
Tablet PC. He previously worked as sales support
manager at NEC Mobile Solutions and as director
of marketing for UserLand Software.
What is your
greatest fear for the future of networked
technologies? The usual fears were,
"My ideas are going to be used against
me." So you're already – online
you go through a self-censoring process because
you know it's going to end up on search
engines like Google and MSN and Yahoo. So you
don't share. If you're doing anything
weird or different from society, you're very
careful about sharing that because it's so
easy now for technology to find the people who
stand out. The people who say they're using
drugs – hey, do a search, who's saying
they're using dope today, find their IP
address and find their address and let's go
raid their house. So technology can be used to
cut down the weird ones and pick on the
minorities in a new way. You're seeing
governments doing that. China does that. They
pick on the weird ones and the guys who are out
there advocating for change. When powerful people
don't like to see change in a society, they
use tools to find them and stop that kind of
advocacy.
What is your most
fervent hope for the future of networked
technologies? I hope that people can
connect with each other in new ways and get over
their differences, get over the social
differences that are out there. My wife is
Iranian, and their society believes different
things from my society here. The only way
we're ever going to bridge that in a peaceful
way is to connect with each other and find some
common ground where we can discuss things openly
in a transparent way. Otherwise we're just
going to resort to what we're doing in Iraq
– shooting each other, and that's not
the kind of future I want for my son.
What technology
will have the greatest impact on our everyday
lives the next 10 years? It's going
to be interesting to see what happens when people
are putting things inside their skin. I met a guy
at a conference last week who has RFID tags in
his hands. That seems very bizarre behavior today
… Now he can go up to his car and unlock
his car with his hand. He doesn't have to
look for his keys or look for a badge or anything
like that. Now what other kinds of experiences
could he build in his house so as he's
walking through his kitchen and his kitchen could
sense he's there and he's different from
his wife and from his kid. And his wife and his
kid could have separate RFID tags and identities
… Just having RFID chips like that on us
or in us and what's that going allow us to
do. Or you can go further I read Ray
Kurzweil's "The Singularity is
Near." He thinks that people are going to
further augment their bodies with wearable
devices and also implantable devices that
actually do something for us. At the Pop Tech
conference last year there was a guy who had no
arms … doctors have now built him
prosthetics that hook into his nerves and his
muscles so he can open a mechanical hand and he
can feel things, grasp things … If you can
do that already today, what can you do tomorrow
to augment the physical behaviors of human
beings? Can you make a brain surgeon even more
steady? …I can't predict where
that's going. You can paint a general picture
when you think about the future. You know things
are going to come, but you don't know the
exact implementation, you don't know how
it's going to be implemented and you
don't know if it's going to be low enough
cost to go mass-market. Another one is robotics.
Look at the Sony and Honda robotic guys that
today cost $150,000 to $300,000 to build, but
just do fantastic things. They can walk, run,
hold things, walk up stairs, dance, move, behave
(like a) humanoid. Where is that going –
what will that mean to society? I don't know.
It's going to be a fascinating thing to watch
in the next 15 years.
What do you think
policymakers should do to ensure a positive
future for networked technologies? Keep
as few rules on (the internet) as possible,
because rules impede commerce, impede
exploration, impede human ideas. The network,
really for me is a way to share ideas, and argue
ideas, and discuss ideas, and image ideas. In
Second Life (the synthetic, multiperson, online
world) I can build a world and my world might be
different from the world you are comfortable
living in, and if you try to put rules on my
world, that will impede my exploration of what
the future might be.
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