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is founder and CEO of The
Electric Sheep Company. A former chief scientist
of StreamSage Inc. and Comcast Online, he is a
leading researcher in advanced computational
linguistic and statistical techniques for
analyzing audio, video, and text. In 2003 he was
selected as one of MIT Technology Review's
top 100 technology innovators worldwide under the
age of 35. He has been an invited presenter at
conferences ranging across Internet
infrastructure, digital television, scientific
publication, and undergraduate science
education.
What is your most
fervent hope for the future of networked
technologies? I think the great
opportunity is that this technology really makes
globalization small-business-friendly. The world
of Thomas Friedman looks like the Himalayas
compared to the metaverse. That's when the
world really gets flat – when you're an
individual who can provide a service or a
creative good instantly for anyone else in the
rest of the world with the income or the need or
the disposable income to pay for it and you
don't have to through large corporations to
participate in the globally interdependent
economy. So this is going to be the first digital
divide that I think really matters where people
who do not have access are really almost going to
be on a separate planet from those who do.
That's a scary thought and incredibly
important.
What technology
will have the greatest impact on our everyday
lives the next 10 years? If you take the
rate of technological growth in the year 2000,
then this century will see 20,000 years worth of
progress at that rate. You first have to blow
someone's mind with the degree of change
before then you can come back and say here are
some of the changes coming or else you
immediately get the flying car argument. Which is
true, right? We thought 50 years ago we'd
have flying cars now, we're not that close to
it. Individual predictions can be wildly wrong,
but we really understand the pace of change and
we think a lot of things have changed the last 20
years, but that's nothing compared to
what's going to happen.
What do you think
policymakers should do to ensure a positive
future for networked technologies? The
first thing is this has to be open – the
metaverse in general has to be open – in
the way that we have successfully been very open
about a lot of the internet technologies, so that
we haven't taxed them in certain ways or have
discouraged the pay-per-use model … I
can't imagine policies that would prevent
that, almost, in this metaverse, but here's
what I would say: Obviously our institutions
tracking ownership, for example, in the western
world is very important for economies, and one of
the reasons it's hard to start free-market
economies successfully very quickly in other
parts of the world that don't have them. And
so somehow when individual people are working for
employers who are in another nation-state that
has employees all around the world and their
income is coming to them in a virtual currency
that is not tied to a particular government or
nation-state, and they are creating intellectual
property that exists within a virtual world
– again, not uniquely hosted in a given
country – because of this whole awesome
all-geographical and, to some degree geopolitical
control – it's going to be very
important that we do establish owership of IP
rights of anything but also ways to have taxation
and participation and the other structures of our
economy in a way that is very cross-national.
That seems extraordinarily difficult, but
it's going to have to happen. The only
alternative – because all of these
cross-national dynamics are going to happen
– is that everything sinks to the lowest
common denominator so you're not able to
track much or tax much and things like that.
That's the quandary.
Looking out more
than 10 years, what development will have the
greatest impact on society? It's
very easy to point to human-like AI. Obviously
science fiction writers have been writing about
it for decades if not far longer, so it's
almost cheesy to say that. But we are at least
getting to the point where we can see the path
for computing technology to – it may not
act like humans per se, but – to have many,
many of the hard and soft skills that humans
have. If you had to pick one technology that
represents the Singularity – the boundary
after which we can't really see what human
civilization is going to be like –
you'd almost surely pick that one over
others. It's a cloud; it's opaque;
it's hard to see how that's going to
transform us, and the reality is it's only
two or three at most decades off – it's
not 70 years off.
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