The 2012 Survey: What is the likely future of gamification – game layers, feedback loops – and Internet between now and 2020? (Anonymous Responses)

Responses to this 2020 scenario were assembled from Internet stakeholders in the 2012 Pew Internet & American Life/Elon University Future of the Internet Survey. Some respondents chose to identify themselves; many did not. We share some—not all—of the responses here. Workplaces of respondents who shared their identity are attributed only for the purpose of indicating a level of expertise; statements reflect personal views. If you would like to participate in the next survey, mail andersj [at] elon dotedu; include information on your expertise.

Anonymous responses to a tension pair on gamification and the Internet in 2020

This page includes anonymous survey participants’ contributions to the discussion of the future of the Internet and gamification by 2020. This is one of eight questions raised by the 2012 Elon University-Pew Internet survey of technology experts, stakeholders, and social analysts. Results on this question were first released by Pew Internet Director Lee Rainie and Imagining the Internet Director Janna Quitney Anderson in the spring of 2012.

In a recent survey about the likely future of the Internet, technology experts and stakeholders were fairly evenly split when it came to imagining what role gamification may play by 2020.

>To read the official study report, please click here.<

>To read credited responses by participants in answer to this question, click here.<

Following is a large sample of the responses from survey participants who took credit for their remarks when sharing their thoughts in the survey. Some are longer versions of responses that were edited to fit in the official report. About half of the respondents chose to remain anonymous and half took credit for their remarks (for-credit responses are published on a separate page).

Survey participants were asked, “share your view of gamification and implications for the future. What new approaches to information sharing do you anticipate will be finding their footing by 2020? What are the positives, negatives, and shades of grey in the likely future you anticipate?” They answered:

“We are programmed to enjoy games, and the use of games as a method of encouragement and as an option to sell something is going to become more and more common in the future.”

“Many people are incapable of functioning in game scenarios, being overwhelmed by the amount of data they need to process and the speed with which decisions should be made. Also, many people may get addicted to the process of being in a game and lose touch with reality and their actual goals. Because of this, I believe that the process of gamification of our lives will soon die out.”

“Gamification bothers me because it’s a bit Skinnerian, but there’s no doubt that it changes behaviors. Incentives to lose weight, save money, give to charity, and play cooperatively have all been increased through gamification. But that makes us not much more than rats in a game where we like the outcome. The question is whether the game rewards become internalized and you can feel an intrinsic award. If not, it’s no more than behavioral therapy.”

“I think 2020 may be too early, but I’m going out on a limb here because I see great potential. Humans can learn very efficiently in this way. But proper implementation—and adoption—are going to take time. Universities will be among the last to adopt, because academics and administrators are so hidebound and traditional. They will more likely start to lose out to other, perhaps new institutions that adopt first.”

“While I don’t particularly like the term ‘gamification,’ I do have great respect for the work of game researchers like James Gee and Kurt Squire. As game research observes, good games are good models of learning environments, and it would be a mistake not to apply the ideas we learn from games to other situations.”

“It is much more difficult and expensive to ‘gamify’ things than most people realize. Besides, once someone builds a good system to game something we will by our natures become bored with it and want something different. It will take a long time.”

“I suspect this will occur most in the marketing and advertising frame. It’s the place where there is obvious and measurable benefit for the use of gaming.”

“It is already being used and has been for quite some time—points systems for air travel, shopping at certain stores, making learning more ‘fun.’ As we study more about the effects of gamification on human behaviour, it will be accelerate the use of game dynamics in everyday activities.”

“Gamification is a superficial trend, it does games a disservice, and I direct anyone who thinks otherwise to Ian Bogost’s critiques, as he actually understands what’s going on in games.”

“Certainly engagement with games and gaming has risen substantially, but I can’t see ‘significant advances’ being made in the near term.”

“The truth lies between these choices—‘gamification’ is useful only in certain circumstances, and its use in those areas will increase and new applications will be discovered, but its overall role will still be limited.”

“Another instance of persuasion, rhetoric, advertising—maybe the consumer will get wiser.”

“Gamification is a natural approach to design, given it is a maturing paradigm of a type of engagement with interactive devices. As it is one of the more successful and popular ones, it’s natural that its more-exuberant practitioners push it as something of a panacea approach. The old saying of ‘if you have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail’ may apply. It’s exceedingly useful for education and training using applications like simulations and possibly useful and experimental when applied elsewhere.”

“As an employee of a large training company, I already see this happening. Gamification makes an unpleasant task more pleasant and it is an effective way to teach.”

“Adoption will vary by domain, but there is huge potential in at least primary and secondary education and public health, but this has to be handled with care. On the other hand, for high-functioning knowledge workers, gamification is likely to be perceived as an insult to intelligence.”

“Gaming is very useful in specific contexts but not everywhere. Leaders’ prejudice against fun will limit growth.”

“We already have gamification on our daily lives—weight-loss competitions at work, shopping-reward programs at the supermarket, etc. It will continue, but it will be subtler than the Web versions that we see now (badges, leaderboards, etc.).”

“How much gamification we get and how much it influences widespread cultural trends will depend on how well game design is taken up by hosts and organizers of social and cultural institutions and built into their rituals. If churches and service clubs like Rotary and Kiwanis decide they can better carry out their mission by moving some playful donation activities onto their members’ smart phones, we will have crossed an important cultural barrier.”

“In every job that must be done, there is an element of fun—you find the fun and snap! The job’s a game and every task you undertake becomes a piece of cake—A lark! A spree! It’s very clear to see that a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down—the medicine go down-wown, the medicine go down. Just a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down, in a most delightful way.” (Sung)  [Lyrics to the song A Spoon Full of Sugar from the Disney film Mary Poppins were the only answer supplied by this respondent.]

“Human beings love to play games and, given the opportunity to do so more frequently, will happily take it up.”

“People like to be entertained, and they enjoy competition to some extent for points and performance. We already see gamification enhancing user experiences in social change networks like Care2 with its Butterfly points. Really, the model is proven across many sectors, this is just a question of good user-experience design, and 2020 is probably a late date for widespread adoption.”

“Life is already a game.”

“Gamification is the same thing as an ‘incentive plan’ which was well documented (but not invented) by Mark Twain in Tom Sawyer. Our only innovation is to use technology to loosely affiliate more and more gaming metrics, tools, and interfaces with our day-to-day activities while simultaneously allowing us to review our progress and compete with our friends in just about everything… I win.”

“While there is an emphasis on play-based learning in childcare centres and schools, the stigma against video games, gamers, and the gaming culture in general is firmly entrenched.”

“‘Gamification’ in this question is really just interaction and it will be a necessary part of electronic media.”

“It’s already a part of the way people interact, from kids making up rules for offline games to teens slamming the limitations of fixed online game rules. Games are not new, and the gurus who tell you that digital online multiple-player environments are special cases are exaggerating their importance. There will be other ‘forms’ of inventive sociality identified, analyzed, and promoted. There’s nothing inherent in the digital game form that guarantees longevity—it’s the promoters, the businesses, and the investors who want this ‘gamification’ to be the outcome.”

“Virtualization and simulation will grow fast in all areas.”

“It will grow and advance, but probably not be implemented in many new ways for the majority of people.”

“Increasing cross-culture communications will make ‘gamification’ problematic, as will the expense to develop and deploy it. And eight years is not enough time for these changes to ripple through existing systems.”

“What people perceive as ‘serious’ and what as a ‘game’, and indeed what level of ‘gameness’ in everyday life, is inherently culturally linked; I don’t see this spreading much out of its present niches in the West.”

“You don’t want your online driver’s license application to play games with you. Most usage of the Web is goal-driven and practical. Gamifying that sort of thing is just annoying.”

“Current attempts at gamification are crude and not particularly effective. Game-like elements may be incorporated into an increasing number of daily activities, but gamification on the whole is too problematic to catch on in a big way.”

“Most people will remain too overwhelmed by their schedules to have time or patience for many more games. The choice of games may change, but the amount of time people spend playing games probably will not. Attempts to interject gaming into many other daily activities would probably be seen by most people as an annoying intrusion.”

“It’s not at all clear that gamification will be a good thing if used pervasively. Not everything should be viewed as a game in my opinion.”

“There will not be such a widespread gamification because the negatives have rapid consequences, the likes of which we have seen in countries with high Internet-usage, like South Korea.”

“Games and game theory are often so abstract far removed from ‘reality’ that they lack pertinence.”

“2020 is a very near horizon to forecast that a big change will happen so soon. Gamification will prove to be successful in the communication scene and in entertainment, but will not break through so easily in education, schools, health, and so on. If digital education will grow up, gamification effects and impact will progressively be reduced.”

“Games will be not of this use as more applications will impede this.”

“It’s not this simple.”

“We’re already starting to see this in our everyday lives, and those who have money to pour into advertising and the like will be more than happy to put it into gaming on an individual level to help you make the choices they want you to make.”

“It seems to have good positive possibilities.”

“The first option makes most sense because it recognizes how games are embedded into other practices, such that the other practices don’t seem all that different even as specific sorts of incentives and disincentives are employed in an attempt to generate desired outcomes.”

“Games will continue to be a niche category, although occupying a bigger niche.”

“As people grow older their interest in games decreases, and this won’t change. Therefore, games will continue to motivate young people and the segment of the population that loves games throughout life, but they will not appeal to and motivate all segments of society.”

“It’s this year’s hype.”

“Games and systems of reward are inherent in human psychology, and as they become better understood, they’re being taken advantage of more and more broadly. Twenty years ago, who’d have thought that governments that outlaw gambling would be the biggest operators of lotteries? We’re a very short jump from health insurance companies awarding points based on exercise or diet, for instance.”

“For better or worse, it’s becoming expected for normal activities to be fun, and people (especially Generation Y, downward) are used to being rewarded for every little thing they do.”

“There will be a rush to implement these technologies, leading to a backlash because the manipulative aspects where participation provides actual value only to the provider will become apparent to the user. Further, among those who buy in, its use will exacerbate the psychology of narcissism already seen in the young. The use of surveys should already be demonstrating this reduction of results. Their almost universal adoption, using pop-up dialog boxes that evade browser controls, should lead rapidly to users clicking ‘close’ and moving on.”

“I think I’ll go have a tooth pulled.”

“Gamification works in some areas and not others. Companies will continue to try and adapt to make ‘games’ of their products whether health care or education.”

“Mankind is designed to engage in gaming; and gaming will continue to evolve into a useful means of economic and social activities.”

“Gamification shares the same root as gaming the system and hunting game. Even by 2020, I expect humans to learn the game well enough to know when they are being gamed by gamification. Sure, some will still buy the deodorant that the ads make most appealing, but they will generally do so knowingly. They will remain one step ahead of the gamification. They will spot the feedback loop before it loops again, and intentionally break it—keep it guessing. Sure, gamification will become a huge industry, but it will not be an advancement.”

“As the children of today become producers and consumers, gamification will extend rapidly. I am less convinced that only positive effects will occur. Gamification, because of the larger investments generally required (Angry Birds notwithstanding), carries a large risk of narrowing people’s perspectives. But then, it may not.”

“It is already happening in education, and will prove to be more effective in engagement of students and consumers.”

“We are all noticing the growth in social gaming.”

“Gaming is fun, what can I say?”

“Gamification will be widespread but more as a means of escapism for the end-user than a constructive, productive way to leverage people’s desire for entertainment.”

“Gamification will be closely tied to learning, and game-based learning will be popular.”

“No question, no doubt—digital natives are gamers and we are already modeling our societies around that mode of cooperation and learning.”

“It is merely a buzz phrase.”

“I will not employ anyone who does Internet gaming except for the most simple types, such as pool games. I will employ those who still do crossword puzzles with a pen, and the like. I will not employ people who cannot read, write, and do basic math, slow method.”

“Seems like we’re already at the second scenario today.”

“Gamification will be used to engage people in more activities online, such as providing personal data and instigating methods of citizen science. This will probably expand to offline experiences where technologies can be used such as learning experiences.”

“The concept of ‘games’ and incentivized interaction has been around long before digital technology. Digital acts as a catalyst in this case.”

“We have a chance at scenario two, but it’s unknown. Basically, we also have to get old institutions to adopt some kind of game-like system to shift work, health, and education. I think education is the most likely and health and work are least likely because the controllers of those environments have too much liability and too much at stake to change quickly.”

“My sense is that gamification is a false direction for most important apps. It has added to some new uses and excitement for some types of apps. Most will prefer real rewards for their time and labor rather than a new badge or growing some virtual corn in a field.”

“We will see some advances in incorporating gaming into traditionally non-gaming tasks, especially when there is an economic incentive for service or product providers to do so (i.e., get people ‘hooked’). We will see a greater attempt to introduce games in the classroom to promote engagement and achieve specific goals laid out by instructional designers. However, ‘gamification’ will be limited as the economy maintains its size or shrinks and companies and higher education focus their strategies on known methods for engaging consumers.”

“The ability of gamification to produce personally-tailored communications will abound and we will be ignorant of the processes underlying the products. It’s just too productive to not happen.”

“People love playing games, and games make a lot of activities more interesting, engaging, and fun for users. Gaming will be adopted by many sectors of society to increase user participation. This is already happening in the delivery of health care and health promotion. It is being used in education, especially for educating children. Games will be adopted for simulating jobs for training purposes in many more fields of endeavor.”

“This is a niche opportunity. In many cases, individuals are interested in a straightforward, value-for-value transaction.”

“Another opportunity to exclaim ‘isn’t the future exciting?’ It is possible that people will fully buy into having their day-to-day behavior conditioned by electronic treats, like tall hamsters; no one who observes contemporary national politics could claim that Americans have too much native intelligence or innate dignity to submit to this sort of obedience training. But I cling to the hope that we are better than that.”

“I expect scenario two, with only the note that it will not work nearly as well as people currently imagine it will, as the effects of novelty-seeking and leaderboard fatigue force gamified aspects of life into cycles of almost constant, short-term updating.”

“In five years, no one will even be asking questions like this. Everyday activities already have incentive systems (of which gamification is a subset) and the current interest in this topic will not bear the sort of radical fruit that some predict.”

“Both/and—it will definitely become more common, but not in a ubiquitous sense.”

“People love ‘stuff.’ Rewards and visions of a great deal fuel the interest and actions of people. I don’t see that changing in the near future. Eventually, the old adage, if it seems to good to be true then it probably is, will outweigh the short-time satisfaction of reacting to manipulation of gamification companies.”

“This is far too big a culture shift to occur by 2020. Perhaps by 2040.”

“Both will come to pass.”

“There will be significant advances in gamification in online worlds and schools.”

“Games have been around for thousands of years. The Internet doesn’t really change the landscape much in this area.”

“I fear we may be so ready to dumb down to the lowest common denominator that anything requiring attention and thought will be bypassed for the ‘feed me’ option.”

“Gaming will be absolutely essential.”

“The big question about how to make a business model when everyone wants everything for free will grow stronger and stronger.”

“Gamification is here to stay.”

“Gamification will continue to increase. Multiplayer games have the ability to form human connections, but individualized games do not. The types of games that become popular will be as important to human interactions as the overall proliferation of games. And even multiplayer games have downsides: They tend to decrease face-to-face interaction, they substitute idealized human representations for the real people behind those representations, and they tend to promote strategy and competition in unrealistic quests at the expense of deep thought about issues that affect the human condition. Having said that, some social network means of communication should not be lumped in with games. Many virtual worlds, for instance, include large groups of people who use the virtual world platform as a way to consolidate efforts among people in distant parts of the world for social good. Twitter has also been used in much the same way. It is important to distinguish between games and social networks.”

“Gamification, along with other psychological mechanisms, will continue to develop and refine. Partial and full implementation of usage cases mentioned in the scenarios will be seamlessly incorporate into daily activities.”

“I truly don’t ‘get’ gaming. So I don’t know whether it’s an issue of age or cohort—i.e., will young gamers continue to be gamers as they age? Will people who are gamers now continue to respond to gaming and game-like structures? Is gaming a temporary phenomenon, a sort of fashion? Is it tied to age, so that 20-somethings will always be gamers; and gamers will age out of being interested in games? I have no clue.”

“Given the amount of research in this area, the second scenario seems most likely.”

“In 2020, the scenario described in option two will be on its way, but not yet completely installed.”

“Games and learning through games is important and will become more of what we do, but I don’t think that ‘it will play a role in the everyday activities’ of people.”
“Heck, the most gamified thing we have right now, Foursquare, has already lost some of its gamer appeal in favor of payoffs not related to gaming aspects such as tips and discounts.”

“Gamification won’t stall but it won’t take over either. It’s nontrivial to find ways to gamify common tasks without alienating people.”

“I’m pretty sure there are many who are already trying to implement the idea of Jane McGonigal’s work (as well as others I’m sure) which describes how there needs to be a greater connection between what ‘gamers’ do in their games and what we can do ‘in real life.’ It doesn’t strike me as being that difficult to tweak current games to also teach various real-life skills that will become more tangible as we progress through this decade. I think this decade will see a very large rise in educational games that appeal to more than the very young.”

“People will get tired and weary of the attempt to gamify everything and it will lose its novelty and effectiveness.”

“I see gamification theory discussed in a lot places, but I have a feeling that it is a short-term trend that will be replaced by or evolve into something else a few years.”

“Gamification is helping people follow through with what they already wanted to do.”

“I am so not in this world.”

“Gaming is already structured to be seductive and addictive so I see choice two as inevitable. Just a 21st century twist on the old Madison Avenue sales tactics.”

“Gamification is over-hyped. Gamification has its place, but seems like only one way to engage with the world. It should not be the only way.”

“Games don’t work for me. I’m totally uninterested, and I think many others are, too. There will be an initial growth, but it will be self-limiting, as much of gamification relies on novelty, and people will become jaded with it.”

“‘Gamification’? Really?”

“Gamification will advance because games are so compelling given human nature. And, why not use something compelling for good causes like education and health? If games can make someone’s work seem more interesting, I won’t stand in the way.”

“Gamification is hot but it is also fizzling because the majority of that effort ignores the very human element it is meant to capitalize upon. Simply put—you can’t gamify everything because as soon as you do, it will stop working.”

“Gamification is a stupid term pushed by Jane McGonigal, and gamers love it when a pretty woman tells them how awesome they are so they eat it up. It’s crap. Facing down famine, poverty, rape, and civil war in Africa is not a game, and the motivations, rewards, and dangers are all real.”

“I have not tracked gamification closely, but I have seen a number of innovations that lead me to be more positive than negative about its prospects.”

“Aspects of gaming user interfaces, rewards, levels, etc., transfer quite naturally to other areas, e.g. fitness-training programs and basic education scenarios, but as the activity gets more complex and results more ambiguous, then such techniques are less useful and start to become an irritant. So, I expect more use of gaming-inspired ideas where that makes sense, but I don’t expect it to become a pervasive feature of many or most everyday activities for people using communications networks.”

“By utilizing the ubiquitous nature of communication, innovative equipment, and competitive applications, people’s lives will be easier to manage and govern. Despite unexpected hitches or glitches due to security, trust, or privacy, communication networks will lead to social life.”

“Humanity likes to be drawn into games as ‘distraction.’ If more of what is made available is presented in game-like environments, more people will be involved, possibly creating crowd-sourced solutions to social, economic, and ecological problems.”

“The difference between smart people and stupid people will be reduced to the question of how easily one is ‘gamed.’ A game within a game?”

“Games will play an increasing role in personal connectivity and financial aspects of our lives but will be used less for work, commerce, or governmental activity. Games provide an easy and appealing way to learn and improve online skills and they make online activity more appealing.”

“Using games and enjoyment will be a novelty that will continue to increase.”

“Gamification is a relatively easy way to manipulate human behavior. It will probably become part of the advertising and marketing landscape, and affect consumers’ purchasing motives. It will be used for political campaigns and help to confuse the issues for voters.”

“Useful online interaction for learning will explode in the next couple of years.”

“Aren’t we already there?”

“Gaming is important, and goes beyond entertainment (though that will continue to grow and mature), but it’s not going to dominate.”

“I am basically an optimist, and believe that gamification is a good thing. We will ‘gamify’ many important issues, and, on balance, this will be a very good thing.”

“As gamification advances, we’ll find that a good portion of learners respond best to this method of teaching.”

“Consumer engagement can be unpredictable and what motivates consumers is difficult to pinpoint. The impact of gamification may happen at some point—but over a longer period of time and probably not in a wholesale manner.”

“Two lines of thought here. First, our current society is not properly educated to make best use of the information at their fingertips. Game-oriented designs and user interfaces can help people access facts and better understand things that might be interesting or useful. Second, game theory can be used as a manipulation and so is a natural for the advertising/marketing industry. That industry has a lot of money to throw at this, and it seems inevitable.”

“I hate to think our best presentation is through games. Call me boring and old-fashioned. Maybe it’s because I’m not a gamer and don’t appreciate the alternative life view.”

“Assuming that augmented reality is an element of gamification, then yes, we’ll all be using and adopting it to some level. Foursquare and Word Lens are exciting but basic examples that will be made much more sophisticated.”

“By 2020, gamification will be an overused trend that will have petered out, and we’ll be onto some new trend.”

“The desire to be entertained is powerful, especially for younger generations. As game technologies get better they will show up in more sectors of human life. Games of varied sorts are already commonplace in education, from preschool through college (e.g., simulations). The popularity of games make them an attractive and lucrative platform for expansion in other realms of social life.”

“Human beings love games and puzzles. They engage our creativity and our reasoning faculties. There are significant gains to be made in applying game-design principles to a wide variety of disciplines and professions.”

“Gamification will grow in scope and influence but it will not be everywhere in the next nine years.”

“This is an intriguing question. I definitely think that gamification, at least as Jane McGonigal describes it, is a helpful paradigm for changing social and individual behavior positively (or negatively). Interestingly, there are dozens and dozens of dystopian science fiction stories, from the recent Hunger Games to crusty old classics like Rollerball (the 1970s version) that are about how gamification leads to a society where we treat humans like disposable game avatars. I bring this up because successful pop culture fantasies generally reflect genuine public anxieties. There are very few models of a progressive, happy gamified future outside of sociological theory like McGonigal’s. So if we are going to see strong gamification outside the circumscribed world of entertainment (and this is a huge world—video games are the dominant form of entertainment today), then it will be done in subtle or even sneaky ways. Given all our anxieties about gamification leading to a Hunger Games world, I think people will be suspicious of game mechanics being introduced into other areas of their lives—especially in work and government contexts. That’s just my hunch, based on what I’m seeing in pop culture.”

“Communication always looks for new paradigm. People will jump on that one.”

“The population is aging and less likely to be playing games. Learning, keeping up skills, and being productive members of society will be more important as we grow older.”

“People will rebel at this as being manipulative.”

“It will be the carrot.”

“I am ignoring the existence of games, I am kind of pretending they aren’t there. I know this is very silly of me, but I don’t want to consider the consequences. They scare me.”

“I think gamification is a bit overblown. It’s an important trend, with powerful capabilities to engage people in new ways with technology, but I think it is safer to say it will ‘not be implemented in most everyday digital activities.’ It will be one strategy, as it is today.”

“Some people love games, others are less enamored. There will be segments of society that respond positively to games and to learning through stimulus-response-reward games, others will not. There will be markets for games and learning games. Still, wholesale advances to adopting and using games can move in the direction of unthinking acceptance of routinized or rule-bound approaches to social interaction or learning—however complex or intriguing a simulation might be. Some folks prefer not to play games that feel artificial (except to escape reality): They prefer to be choosing from an array of choices (virtual and real) for social interaction and for learning where playing with more unscripted possibilities is what they enjoy most.”

“I really hope that gamification doesn’t completely take over. Not everything in life should be about earning points and competing against others. I like it in small doses, in a few places.”

“I am basing this on what I am currently seeing happening in society now. Much of everything from marketing, social networks, even the shows on TV are signaling that gamification is not going anywhere.”

“Games get old. I don’t think they will have any more of an impact on society than they already do.”

“Some many human activities simply can not be gamified. Gamification will remain a vital marketing tool for its current uses, but most attempts to use the technique in new areas will fail.

“Gaming is a very hot topic right now in terms of how it can be applied to learning and education. Not everything should be about winning or getting something so I hope this trend doesn’t grow into too many areas.”

“I generally agree with the statement that game elements will be common, but not so much as an indication of the invasion of gaming into other parts of life. The research into gaming has shown other industries how to manipulate small-scale risk/reward systems to meet business objectives. Additionally, gaming has provided the largest laboratory for investigating human/computer interaction and it will continue to have important stories to tell.”

“Yes. Exhibit A—Zynga and Facebook. It is good.”

“Game-style learning is extremely powerful from my experience as a teacher.”

“Reality is likely to be somewhere between the two scenarios. Hopefully, we will have increased its use in education, opening the door a bit wider to the future.”

“The fuller adoption of game mechanics could happen, but 2020 is too aggressive a time scale.”

“Gamification can create real-time feedback and interaction and it will be the only acceptable mode of non-face-to-face interactions. It will certainly change expectations and ‘patience is a virtue’ will become ‘speed is a virtue.’”

“I see gaming being used more and more (granted, I just finished reading Jane McGonigal’s book Reality is Broken, so my answers are a little biased). College-level courses are now being turned into games. Students today are brought up with games, which will turn them into wanting/using games in their adult life and careers.”

“People are already getting tired of gamification. My many friends on Facebook are asking ‘why do I get a badge for stopping at Starbucks?’ It will only really take off if it becomes completely automatic.”

“Can you say, “the X-Box generation?’”

“Badges and other rewards will become so overabundant that no one will care about them anymore—they just won’t be much of an incentive. If the rewards have some actual real-world value (the way that airline miles do or like the free popcorn you get from using your Regal card) then it is possible that gamification will be more than a passing buzzword.”

“Gamification is the norm for many young folks. Will it be the ‘norm’ in the future that if a process isn’t ‘gamified’ it will be ignored? Signing up for insurance? Voting? Completing the census? Will it need to be ‘gamified’ to get the young to participate?”

“I agree with the first choice, almost completely.”

“Yes, more ‘gamification’ will take place and we’ll hate it.”

“Gaming has a lot of positives but I don’t foresee it as overtaking communication networks. People find certain aspects to be time-wasting; it will used when it’s appropriate for the users.”

“Younger users are highly attracted to communications that make use of gamification features. As such, it is likely to see significant adoption and use by 2020, at least among younger users.”

“Game theory as a way of projecting possible solutions to certain kinds of problems and situations will probably improve with more interactive approaches, but as a user interface for getting things done, outside of young child education—nah.”

“Not within nine years, but pretty soon following”

“This trend is too popular, effective, and profitable to be held back.”

“Gaming is where it’s at. It’s fun, personalized, and people find it entertaining.”

“I expect game fatigue and the preference for easier interaction will outweigh the gamification tendency.”

“Gamers recently decoded a science challenge. Gamers and young people who have been conditioned not only to play but develop games will be in demand across other industries and platforms that may be outside the imagination of most.”

“Games will probably be more integrated to our daily lives. We will use them to entertain us in areas we have not exposed to entertainment. Consider this: your shopping list is a game; your smartphone app that tells you what to purchase has a game element—it will link to payments and promotions.”

“Gamification will spread but not be known as such by most people as they go about their lives. Arguably Groupon is gaming at work. But who thinks of it that way?”

“Games enhance learning (even when the games are not digital), so I’m inclined to believe that games will become more sophisticated and their use will become more widespread as people realize how useful and fun games can be.”

“Gamification has its place to spur interaction and boost engagement, etc., but I doubt that it will play a role in everyday activities.”

“Gamification will become an even bigger profit maker for those entities holding power.”

“It’s already happening in the context of battlefield simulations and some advanced social initiatives.”

“It’s already happening and I see very little evidence that this is a bad thing or will be curbed.  Competition and incentives are basic human needs—they are just being harnessed.”

“It may be on the wane already.”

“The use of gamification will continue to advance and have a solid foothold in many activities.”

“Not all of us want to play games all the time.”

“I’m hoping for the more optimistic scenario.”

“Scenario two will take place. Think kids under 35. They can’t concentrate and are self involved.”

“We already see this trend in credit card rewards program. New technologies and social networking are accelerating it.”

“There is already evidence of this: Gamers unraveling problems of protein folding; at-home astronomers classifying new galaxies from their desks. If effective, there seems no reason that this should be anything but augmented.”

“Work and play will merge in more and more areas.”

“If gamification hadn’t begun as profit-making business, there would be room for expanding it to impact more people.”

“Game theory has a lot of potential applications and I am sure that there will be interesting ones for all sorts of human problems.”

“For gamification to ‘make a difference,’ we have to attend to choices we make to educate, provide health services, create a good work environment, etc. Some people will easily adopt gaming features but others will not. It is a mistake to think that games interest everyone, or that cognitively games ‘work’ successfully as a technology for learning, or that an infrastructure can be built for all these activities. So, scenario one is most likely.”

“I go back to futurist John Nesbitt’s ideas and high-tech, high-touch. We are going to soon see a bit of a pendulum swing to bring our humanity back into balance with the devices that are supposed to serve us, not enslave and manipulate us.”

“Farmville is popular with some groups as a means of communication, however the concern about the information that is harvested by the developer has tainted the game for many. Gaming is still seen as play by many—an activity for which most claim they do not have time.”

“We are already well on our way to a fully engaged gamification world. Our buying patterns, our health care, our communications, and our recreating and entertainment all have built-in gamification already—whether people recognize it or not! As the sophistication of the approach, and the improved access emerges, we’ll all be reaching for the next level and the most points.”

“Gamification equates to marketing. Communication and interaction are already saturated with gamification.”

“Gaming can be very engaging and motivating. It all depends on the game content. ‘Shoot ‘em ups’ don’t get us very far, but there are many educational innovators who care about reaching young people and engaging them—gaming gets young people’s attention.”

“Gamification will continue to be one of many ways of informing and influencing people, but it will not replace other strategies. And it will continue to give people games to play. With more time and sophistication, it may give us wonderfully inventive and challenging new games to stimulate our brains.”

“People will be spending considerably more time in online worlds, and this will lead to more complex and sophisticated experiences.”

“Games—primitive compared to today’s technological gamification—have always been valuable learning tools as well as sources of entertainment, so significant advances will add to our education and communication tool box. A big question will be whether on-field sports, as physical exercise and entertainment, will be replaced by 2020 versions of X-Box and Wii.”

“Gamification provides a vehicle for turning complex ideas into manageable ones. It will be more widely adopted as time progresses.”

“Gamification is far too trendy for it to have much impact.”

“Given our human propensity for the new and exciting, gamification will more or less remain the same. It will engage users until they tire of it and move onto the next thing.”

“For those who embrace the Internet, the first scenario will become a reality but there will remain those immune to these advances.”

“Research has confirmed that learning through games will contribute to develop of higher level thinking skills and analysis; as well, assessments in gaming products will also be a better tool for measuring learning as opposed to standardized testing.”

“Gamification targets an audience I’m not convinced will be the majority in 2020.”

“Immediate rewards, as well as interactive incentives will be an increasing motivation for society, as the Millennials and younger generations drive markets.”

“Gaming functionality will continue to grow and be used in more and more facets of our lives. People will receive training on the job, be exposed through education and development programs, have the ability to learn about areas that are important to them using this technology and social strategy. It will allow people to understand complex topics faster and with more nuances, and make the learning process more anticipated and less to be feared or avoided. New ideas will spread faster as the ability to educate more people becomes easier and quicker.”

“People are easily manipulated through gamification, so it is likely that this will play a signification role in shaping society. Humans are not solitary creatures and therefore the social feedback that they receive through ‘games’ gives can give them the motivation to do most anything. Throughout history society has tried to bypass the human connection with technology, but really we need both to survive.”

“I don’t see gamification taking over, but this may be a generational shift.”

“Games will influence technology and communications but not be a primary driver.”

“It’s already happening!”

“Game strategies will be absorbed by many other disciplines.”

“I’m not sure what it will look like, but as mobile technology becomes more pervasive in our daily lives, the use of technological motivation as ways to enable behaviour change will be ingrained in every approach. It will be so pervasive, we won’t even think of it as gamification; it will just ‘be.’”

“What I find remarkable about gamification is the connectivity is offers to people worldwide—all races, cultures. While some games are just money-makers for their inventors, some really seem to offer positive relationship building experiences and have their roots in broader social, community development. This has valuable potential coming forward.”

“Sad to say but this is a probability.”

“Gamification will play an increasing role, but my answer would actually lie somewhere between the two choices offered.”

“Neither. By 2020, gamification will be implemented in most everyday digital activities for most people. But use and impact will be determined by individual characteristics.”

“Games and game techniques cannot be applied to every kind of learning or interaction. In fact, if they turn up in certain places, it reeks of manipulation and trivialization of important or sensitive issues and is off-putting.”

“People love to be info-tained. Games play a huge role in helping learners from all age groups master knowledge and skills in a fun, edu-taining environment. I believe the growth in gamification will continue to become more sophisticated as more developers focus their attention on the educational benefits of this new way of working, learning, and communicating.”

“2020 is not that far away. I’ve seen people lose interest in Second Life and move on to newer possibilities. It will take much longer for gaming to find its way into our daily lives in a real sense.”

“Look at how far gaming has come—Angry Birds, Farmville, Cityville, enough said.”

“I agree with the caveat that this will only be for those people who are actively using communications networks in their daily lives—by 2020 that will still not be majority unless next generation networks, especially fibre to the home, are ubiquitous.”

“I’m not going to be disappointed if the second answer does not come to fruition, but I suspect it is likely to occur. I might be the last person on the planet to buy into deferred gratification. It does not seem to be eagerly embraced by the newer generation. So I can see gamification coming to a screen near me soon.”

“Games can only be enjoyed by those who have a minimum of security about food, shelter, safety, and everyday realities. Barring miracles, I do not foresee those conditions by 2020.”

“Positives—health apps for diabetes management, quitting smoking, nutrition, and exercise plans.  Negatives—wasted time.”

“A good game is always fun. Different segments of society need different experiences— individualization again. When the technology is really excellent, it disappears from view.”

“While I think gamification is a likely outcome, I think it will take far longer than ten years to be fully operationalized.”

“God, I hope so. Just in health if nothing else.”

“This will happen, perhaps as an option. Many will opt-in, but it may not be the only way people will interact.”

“The recent news about gamers collectively making a breakthrough in AIDs research was breathtaking. I can’t help but think this is a great untapped resource.”

“Games are still seen as somewhat frivolous, and gamification will not likely change everyday activities other than those that are entertainment-focused. When there is a game that can realistically solve the world’s problems with hunger, drought, and internecine warfare, then perhaps there will be more gaming.”

“Humans will continue to expect to be entertained by technology.”

“I think this scenario can happen but I am just totally outside of the park when this ballgame was being played.”

“You’ve underestimated the degree to which it’ll be used in retail, public relations, gambling, porn, popular media, and other key influential contexts rather than the benign and helpful ones you’ve listed (education, health, etc.). Gamification will be huge. It’s already half way there.”

“Games have always, and will continue to make learning fun.”

“The direction and adoption of social media demonstrates the power of turning actions and tasks into games. Like widespread viral apps and games, it will continue.”

“I hope gamification is used for education and helping people make informed decisions about their health, wealth, and future.”

“Gamification will become a layer for a much broader set of activities, but it won’t be overt. People like challenge. It’s motivating. The definitions might be broadened from earning points and levels or badges to more subtle incentives like earning a custom experience for shopping loyalty.”

“Just like faxes, copy machines, and email were sources of jokes and silly games in the early days, gamification is a tool that is useful in helping the general public to embrace new technology. It helps people to become more comfortable with a new technology when they can use it as fun at first. Then it gets more serious as it evolves.”

“2020 is too soon for more than what I indicated. Most people do not play games for leisure.”

“The key words here are ‘most people.’ Like everything else in the digital environment, there are the haves and the have-nots. This effectively being used, but not applying to all.”

“Games become boring and consumers flit from one game to another very quickly. To facilitate communication through gamification will be tiring and consumers will find it a time-suck. Today’s society wants information quickly and on demand. I don’t foresee that changing so dramatically.”

“It is already here in rewards cards, etc. I do not foresee in the next nine years that it will significantly affect our lives any more than it is now.”

“I think it will take longer to evolve because of the economy, but will happen.”

“Too much marketing.”

“Again, option two will happen, but not by 2020. I’ve had the privileged to see the well-funded development of several beta projects using gaming for foreign language learning in the private sector. Thinking of these as an example, these types of advances in gaming will have an amazing positive effect on our society. However, because I have also seen how long it takes to perfect these tools (always longer than originally anticipated), I don’t think they will be as pervasive by 2020 as option two describes.”

“A game is a great learning tool.”

“The trend will still be fresh in 2020, though gamification will have matured beyond the current, almost casual use now. Gamification will be common in education and health by 2020. We see that now. The application of game theory to other areas will be well underway, but it will still be experimental as marketers and others learn how best to employ the principles.”

“I’m already tired of gamification in areas it doesn’t belong, and I believe the broader population feels the same. Users won’t be willing to adopt it for elements of life beyond the most obvious or helpful.”

“Gaming has many benefits for education. Gaming offers a nature and fun way to learn things. Why not use it to help people learn things that are important. I was intrigued recently when gamers helped scientists sort through data to make links between different variables that may lead to curing disease. What a smart way to use gaming? Certainly, of course, we don’t want people spending all day at the computer. But I think the answer there is to provide support for other ways of using your time, not to banish gaming.”

“Gamification is an intensely specialized programming talent that many of us who are currently internet and tech savvy will not have the time to learn for the purpose of implementing it into our teaching and work lives.”

“It is likely the upcoming generations raised on games will bend trends in this direction. I personally really don’t like games, and will resist this trend where it is obvious, but I am also certain that there is a great deal of learning being done in the gaming industry about motivators and cognition and that has and will continue to have huge impacts on the communications industry.”

“Gamification will always be important and changing in presentation.”

“If there is anything that the historical record shows, it is that any Brave New World is always overstated and over predicted. I am completely confident that gamification will make substantial strides in those areas and nations that are most subject to influence by gamification. But as a banker of my acquaintance once told me: ‘Don’t overestimate this. Nobody yet has figured out a way to e-mail wheat, or coal, or salt. Or especially oil.’ Games are an underexploited resource in our society, and hold powerful possibilities for such things as communication and training. But they are not a magic wand. Society is not going to be turned upside down overnight. Human nature is famously resistant to utopian cures and formulas.”

“It’s already beginning to happen.”

“‘Gamification’ has been around for several hundred years. However, the current trend, especially the attempt to ‘gamify’ health-related behaviors is going to have about as much staying power as the Edsel.”

“People will get over it, I hope! Life—and work—is about much more than status levels and badges.”

“I believe there is a limited impact here. There is a particular group that will always drive gaming. I don’t believe they will drive a bigger market.”

“This is likely to happen, and with it will come even more breakdown of live human interaction as we continue down the path of diversion and distraction.”

“It will get pushed because it works and it’s fun.”

“Fundamentally, there are certain aspects of communication that we will realize do not improve (in either enjoyability or productivity) when they become somehow competitive. Conversation works best when its users aren’t thinking within the confines of rules, and all games have rules.”

“It’s the latest fad, but remember when (just a few years ago) virtual worlds were expected take over our lives? Gamification has its niche uses, but it will be too complex to develop for most areas of life—and certainly too time-consuming to do for the average citizen, who has a huge array of other things to do (social networking services, virtual reality, etc.).”

“This is just a question of timing. I don’t know if in eight years we will get there, but gamification will have a huge impact on the future.”

“We are in the infancy of gaming right now. The principles and processes of gaming are powerful enough that they will continue to be incorporated into many aspects of our lives, especially education.”

“Gamification will advance because of the corresponding decline of social interaction. Games offer false but seductive social interaction and we will be well on our way to maxing this out by 2020.”

“I see this as working across an age divide. Younger individuals are more likely to participate in game mechanics. This is not because it is something only attractive to a younger audience, but because they are growing up while these mechanisms have evolved.”

“Games are already starting to have a bigger impact on people’s lives, especially with the new invention of Facebook games. I expect this trend to continue. The good news is that people will notice this and tailor it to people’s education. The bad news is that it’s unhealthy.”

“The gamification will be directed to the two or three youngest generations who are more accepting of the idea. This is a natural outgrowth of just how much they are intertwined with technology.”

“This may grow to become the new thought process.”

“Gamification will return to being part of the background—where it’s been for a very long time. Some people will pay attention to how to adapt and use it to communicate. The classic game-like system is advertising (and the present rising in the use of the term ‘gamification’ is another attempt to bring advertising back into a favorable light). So I think it’s going to continue to be used, and refined, and implemented in new ways: But it’s going to be old wine in new bottles.”

“Games wear out and become boring in their repetitiveness as players grow accustomed to the logic behind the game. What is to keep this from happening once the logic is applied to other forms of interaction and for people to look elsewhere for ‘reward?’”

“This is the biggest unrecognized trend in Internet use today. Social and collaborative gaming are on the rise and have not peaked yet.”

“More likely the first as people mature and have duties that compete for time now given to gaming. Attention, again, is limited over time.”

“Not so significant. It all costs money.”

“I already feel gamification fatigue. If I want to use something I will—I don’t want rewards or a game to be made of my interactions. If others feel the same it will not build.”

“This question, in my view, lacks a foundation for the asking; everything is too fluid at this point.”

“Gamification continues to grow, but people only have so much interest in a subject and they also only have so much time in a day. We cannot turn everything into a game, people do not have the interest or the time.”

“Gamification will evolve as a communicative tool that can be used to inform, inspire, and educate people. By 2020, it will have made some serious strides towards in this area.”

“This will remain a leisure activity except for those utilising this aspect for military training. There will be a backlash over the individualisation of activity with society opting for more togetherness rather than isolation. The trends of moving towards one’s own TV in the bedroom or PlayStation, or social networking has reached its apex and certain generations which had adopted social networking will undoubtedly exhibit a backlash of ‘me’ time into ‘our’ time.”

“Personal experience in the past two years alone has shown that people are more willing to do something, even if it is their job, when they are being rewarded additionally for each action.”

“If gamification is to gain traction, it will need to be implemented in a way that a) gains critical mass (i.e., above the Google Wave level) and b) engages users so that they can see how it benefits them. If it can be ‘Facebooked,’ then it will gain traction. Otherwise, it will take a long time to be adopted.”

“Because many rely on their devices for entertainment and social interaction, gaming will expand to other uses as identified. Gambling will also be accepted.”

“I’m not convinced that we’ll all be gaming in 2020. Of course, my generation (50 and older) will be slow to adopt. But I even observe my son’s high school-age friends as being less enamored with gaming than they were as 10-year-olds.”

“We see this in simulation centers at medical schools and schools for allied health. I think we will continue to see this. Slowly, you won’t need to be a sun-deprived teenager dressed in black to do gaming.”

“I don’t believe that it is going to infiltrate most everyday activities. It will definitely become more prevalent in 2020 but I don’t think it will take over. Now, one way that I do see gamification entering the everyday lives of people is with our younger generations, which I would say includes myself. We have been raised on games, rewards, instant gratification, etc. which could make us more open to the gamification of our daily lives.”

“Gamification in education will be spread out. But not in everyone’s life.”

“Many people are not natural gamers, and will be disinterested in game-style applications.”

“What some call ‘gamification’ I see as ‘goal-based’ interactions. To me the ‘game’ aspect comes into play when either: the ‘goal’ being achieved is only relevant in the context of a non-reality ‘game’, or an entertainment value is artificially applied to something that is not normally thought of as having it.”

“We already are living in the world of ‘Amusing ourselves to death.’”

“We are seeing this now with user experience and user interaction on the Web and apps, touch screen devices, technology, etc.”

“Games will always be just that—games. Something for fun. I don’t think games will take over the world.”

“I see this happening. It may be that what we define as a game has changed a bit. But the big issue here is in hiring and training for whatever field is mentioned above. Online scenarios to see how people might react or do react will be very helpful in the workplace. I see this in the evolution of interview questions. We used to ask things like, ‘What skills do you bring to this position?’ Now we ask things like, ‘Tell me about a time that you messed up and how you dealt with it?’ This type of scenario could very easily be ‘gamified.’”

“I see a lot of interesting developments (such as serious gaming, using Second Life at schools, etc.). I think we can be a whole lot further in 2020.”

“Current 12-year-olds will be our emerging leaders in 2020—they will demand gamification.”

“There will be advances, yes, but not yet widespread adoption beyond the gaming industry.”

“I have watched human behavior concerning digital and electronic devices over the past several years, and ‘gamification’ is an effective way to intrigue people of all ages to engage with technology. Perhaps it is the ‘monkey’ in us all, and I say this with affection—the love of discovery, tinkering and playing, finding and learning about something before others—it is part of human nature. Why not use it for the greater good?”

“People have always been motivated by games and contests, and these will become part of the technology landscape—driving and supporting human behavior change.”

“Gamification is a second- or third-tier consideration by consumers, not an everyday item of engagement for most.”

“The challenge of gamification is that it requires opt-in, rule understanding, and active and continual engagement. That’s a lot for the busy people of 2020 to take on in an every day, every activity, kind of way.”

“God, I hope not. Fun, rewards, etc., to spur engagement? I worry what that does to our brains. I’m sure there are addictive properties of games in terms of playing for reward, but what does that mean in terms of gratification? I will no longer be enough to learn something just to learn it? Or accomplish something just to accomplish it? I cringe a bit when I see that iPad commercial narrated by Peter Coyote, where we are told we can learn Chinese, watch TED videos, play piano, etc., all from our iPad. There is no need to touch or look at anything else. Should I have a bracket installed on my head, so that my iPad is in front of my face 24/7?”

“Incentives are clearly being used more.”

“Gamification—a new buzz word that I suspect just won’t have legs. People are doing a lot around this but my gut tells me not going to pan out.”

“I do know the Prisoner’s Dilemma problem will always be with us.”

“I have great faith in human cynicism once any tool becomes recognizably in widespread use to influence people. Consider the overtones of the phrase ‘spin doctor.’”

“I am all for this and anything that makes learning fun.”

“I think the second choice is accurate, but I’m not sure that extensive use of it is necessarily a good thing.”

“If there’s a way for companies to make money using these techniques they will surely be implemented.”

“Gaming advances will be integrated into educational experience and promote what the MIT Media Lab sees as the ‘apprentice relationship,’ allowing collaboration in education, health, and other aspects of human communication as a major advance.”

“Think advertising.”

“Easy pickin’s will work only with the easily manipulated, therefore a market to justify the game development resources will not materialize.”

“This form on interactivity will take off. There are so many applications, but it takes time and money and expertise to do them effectively. This is being done well in specific instances and I hope it continues.”

“Skepticism about the impact of ‘nudge’ and gaming models will emerge as evaluations of programmes based on these come in. Government support for ‘gamification’ is unlikely to grow without seeing really strong evidence of impact on pilot projects.”

“Marketers and companies are always looking for new ways to attract, inspire, and retain their audiences. The concept of gamification will definitely grow, but will eventually reach a peak as users feel they are overwhelmed.”

“Given the dominance of gaming in the lives of children and young adults, it is hard to imagine a scenario where gaming does not play more of an active role in the daily life of the future. The organization or business that can effectively harness game-like activities will have a large competitive advantage over others that do not.”

“Human beings need to play the ‘game of life’ to push themselves forward. This dynamic is at the heart of almost all best-practice case studies and I don’t see it going away.”

“Gaming would be a good development if it emphasizes individual self-responsibility. Unfortunately, the reverse is likely to be true.”

“The concept of gamification has existed for a long time (even before the Internet), and it never has caught on. I don’t foresee this changing.”

“Sophisticated games that attract large numbers of users are not easily developed and can take a lot of resources. Therefore, I think that 2020 is too early for the second scenario.”

“Some of these concepts will be carried into mechanisms to learn, communicate, and market. They won’t be ‘games’ necessarily, but the concepts involving incentives and rewarding loyalty will remain.”

“See the trends now for gaming being used to teach. Because of tech-savvy kids and the fun element of gaming, its positive use will expand widely in the future. I’m not sure 2020 will capture the above-stated advances but the future most likely will. While I believe the use of gamification is mostly positive, the instant-gratification aspects could create expectations in developing children of a life of such gratification which is just not realistic. Such expectations could cause developmental issues as they grow up.”

“Not everyone likes games.”

“Gamification is already on the rise.”

“No one who ever bet on the future of TV got it wrong. Even while continuing to dumb us down as a culture, its allure to the lowest common denominator is as powerful as ever. See Neil Postman’s work.”

“‘Gamification’ will be an important source of innovation and a spur to future technological advances but its spread will be limited, both because of its limited appeal and because of the costs. But precisely because it will be one of the engines of innovation, it will have widespread impacts in as-yet-to-be-created ways.”

“People will accept a certain level of intrusion but there is a point where it becomes ‘fuck you.’”

“Interaction seems to be what people respond to. At this point, it is the wave of the future.”

“The use of game mechanics is one of many exciting new approaches to making activities more efficient and impactful. It will likely see some success, but will not be the right approach for every situation.”

“Gaming has always been a part of human beings.”

“The role games will play in our everyday life will be less dominant than today. The interactive and ‘reality’ elements that the game world offer today will be adopted to public and commercial services as part of more user-friendly interfaces and in a less ‘gamified’ way.”

“This is already happening. Games and gaming theory are applied in most sectors.”

“Humans are highly prone to addictive behavior. The science of understanding and exploiting this will increase over time.”

“Reality is broken. Game approaches will sneak into many systems, some more explicitly than others. And this will make the world better.”

“I see a huge amount of time gaming being spent by people who would not consider themselves particularly technologically savvy, therefore I see that commercial uses would quickly latch onto this, which in turn would engender interest from other likely sectors. Can you just imagine gamification being used in jury selection?”

“Not sure it will be adopted and applied in beneficial applications such as health education as much as it could be beneficial.”

“I already see this happening and believe it will continue to grow.”

“Gamification is profoundly effecting all design decisions today. With attention spans becoming shorter and sites and apps having little time to make an impression and garner followers, gamification is a way for service providers to encourage repeat visits. I don’t see this going away.”

“Gamification has already come close to its peak with regards to usefulness. It has proven useful in many applications to date but I do not believe it is a ‘silver bullet’ approach that warrants universal application.”

“We’re already seeing use of gamification in health, education, etc., put to good use. It will become a big incentive for applications that ‘taste bad, but are good for you’—healthy behavior, learning, savings, etc.”

“Gamification will be used heavily by education sector, rewarding students for their learning.”

“The universe is not a game, and so our attention to building the noosphere should not insinuate that.”

“This may point to a digital divide. For those who use the activities which have been gamified and who rely on the Web, it will be an integral aspect of their lives and in most cases, the gamification will be unnoticeable, they will simply ‘have to’ check in or participate. Using it for education and health, even keeping people into their jobs is a great application. It will simply become a way of life (much like our loss of privacy that most people fail to realize).”

“The future always comes staggering in—some places and applications are way ahead of others. Plus, no one ‘new approach’ will eliminate old approaches. The new (gamification in this case) may overshadow older approaches in some applications, but I suspect before it gets anywhere close to becoming universal, we will have at least one, if not several, yet newer approaches on the scene.”

“Games are a bore beyond a point. ‘What’s next?’ would be the attitude if they were commonplace.”

“Gamification is just bizarre dynamics taken into a ludicrous setting.”

“I don’t agree with either option. Interactivity and feedback loops are already here in Web 2.0—there will be an increase in gamification, but the open-access movement and open data will be key in driving new approaches of communication sharing—more information, available to more people for free.”

“There will be uses for gaming activities, but they will be limited to entertainment and K-6 education.”

“I agree with the former idea that gamification, though it will be an important segment of the communications scene and be adopted in new ways, will not be implemented in most everyday digital activities.”

“What we are beginning to call ‘gamification’ really isn’t new, we are just figuring out how to bring it into the realm of software more and more. It has been ‘making waves’ for centuries, at least. It isn’t clear to me that this really deserves a label. It is better thought of as part of the broader picture of making software more adaptable to motivate people.”

“Because they are ubiquitous in tech news these days, gamification and social structures will be seen as a ‘fad,’ experience burnout, and then fall out of favor in the next ten years, except with certain segments of the population. I doubt it will make huge inroads with ‘serious’ fields like K-12 education, work and career, or the health industry.”

“This is part of the move towards interactivity and it’s the way of the future; it is already happening in schools and as long as it’s part of a range of learning approaches, it’s a good thing. It can certainly make learning more enjoyable. My daughter had a lot more fun (and learned far more quickly) the skill of touch-typing using a game than the endless repetition of ‘jjj,’ ‘fff’ than I did under the guidance of a cranky typing teacher!”

“Gaming is in its infancy in terms of development and exploitation of possibilities—and I see lots of potential positives as it matures.”

“By 2020, there will have been significant advances in the adoption and use of gamification. It will be making waves on the communications scene and will have been implemented in many new ways for education, health, work, and other aspects of human connection and it will play a role in the everyday activities of many of the people who are actively using communications networks in their daily lives.”

“We are on the edge of using gaming—bad term—in personalizing learning.”

“People like rewards and points even if they aren’t part of an actual interactive game. Look at Jenny Craig, the weight-loss program, and how people lose weight by creating a system of rewards and metrics around eating. People are inherently competitive and like attribution and credit for doing things in the world. Gamifaction makes these behaviors more visible in an online marketplace or community.”

“Gaming as such is a narrow-niche activity. Gamification may take place behind the scenes but it will be perceived by the public as just more programming.”

“Games remain games.”

“The concretization of gamification has had an effect, but it has been with us since the 19th century. Perhaps it will influence many things, but I’m not convinced that it will take over the world, in part because what I see as revolutionary ideas I don’t see being adopted across the board.”

“We need to think of gaming as part entertainment, part learning, part training. In this context, gaming will only continue to expand. It already is much more widely used than is commonly acknowledged. It may not enter everyone’s lives in the form of entertainment but they will almost certainly encounter it in education and in training programs.”

“There have always been games; there will always be games.”

“I believe we are already just about to the second scenario.”

“I am seeing more interest in using gaming technologies and gaming ‘thinking’ in the academic world. A mild use of this is fine, but some of the more extreme usage of it is somewhat ominous, I think, especially in university settings.”

“The insights of gamification software will be transferred to independent robotic machines. This is already happening in the military and may lead to the military domination of society worldwide. If this does not happen, robots may lead to an economy vastly different from our current one and a redefinition of work and who works and who benefits from working.”

“This has been one of the most overhyped and overrated areas of digital activity. Yes, there are some outstanding individual exceptions. But no, I don’t see huge ‘waves on the communications scene’ by 2020.”

“Gamification works. It will absolutely continue to evolve and its use will extend into every facet of our lives from education to healthcare, and even our jobs.”

“Gamification is a fad that ignores human motivation—one has to be motivated to collect ‘air’ if one is to participate. Badges, and other invented rewards are not useful in a workplace environment unless the workplace values the gamification metrics.”

“Recently, there was a case where gamers solved a biological problem in a matter of weeks, but it took scientists years to solve the problem with conventional methods.”

“The intrusion of gamification into the fabric of society will do more to unravel cohesiveness and drain scarce disposable income of citizens than add to the greater good of communities. The techniques of gaming may indeed be adapted for societal improvement but will productivity and meaningful life emerge from the obsession of gaming?”

“I currently see a proliferation in mobile social gaming apps. I do believe that there is some communicative value in social gaming—I’m just not sure what that value is, yet.”

“This is a useful niche that requires a certain demeanor on the part of the user. Often, the user doesn’t want to engage in a game or any other such organized activity, he or she just wants to consume information or create information on his or her own.”

“I would vote against its wide, sweeping change.”

“My understanding of the term ‘communications’ includes development and marketing, especially in the nonprofit world. In 2020, the people engaging with this type of communications won’t be the Millennials; they’ll be the Boomers, who weren’t raised with computers and are not as interested in or familiar with gaming. For every technological advance there are a hundred studies, some of which will note that people see through games, think they’re gimmicky, and avoid them as they go about their business. I don’t understand the connection between gaming and information sharing—it’s a trick to get people to use their credit cards?”

“Gamification and implications in the future will only affect those who currently play games.”

“Because youth are driving education in the hands-on interface it will remain that way—especially when prices go down.”

“Sadly, I think gamification will grow because marketers and retailers will use any tools they can to increase their profits.”

“The one most easily drawn observation from study after study after study of how the Internet, technology, and social media are affecting the way we communicate is that people like interaction. It’s been counted as a benefit, metric, measurement, result, impact, and countless other Internet analytics results terms. Everyone sees interaction as a way of increasing communications, and therefore a way of increasing followers, loyalty, profit, etc. (whatever your specific goals are). Gamification is an easy way to spur interaction. This is an age driven by Facebook and blog comments, crowdsourcing, flash, participation, and more and more augmented reality, as we try to achieve the impossible.”

“Quantifying daily activity will engage aspects of our cognitive frameworks. Gamification will inevitably lead to behavioral changes, especially when combined with economic incentives.”
“Incentives always motivate. Gamification is simply the current mode of understanding motivation.”
“Gamification is simply a successful psychological method for rewards. It works and creates a mechanism to encourage/manipulate people to do things—everyone likes to get rewards, even if they are virtual. Given the success of game mechanics on a number of fields today I think it will be more adopted in the future.”

“Gamification is happening because people are obsessed with it. Everyone: old-school gamers, corporate types, non-profits, governments, moms, everyone. It’s a great way to create incentives, sure, but it’s also driving all the industry development that’s happening now. And what goes into production today, comes out tomorrow. Hey, I’m psyched about it. I always hoped years playing PlayStation 2 and Dungeons & Dragons would pay off.”

“Just as games have been adopted by the military to recruit and train the armed forces, so too will gaming techniques be adopted by businesses to reward staff, encourage customers to buy and incentivize adoption of health programs. Coupons have been a traditional form of incentive for decades. Green Shield stamps were used in the UK in the 1950s and 1960s as a reward for shopping. Fill a book to get a reward. Fast-forward to today and the rewards will be electronic. Coupons may have migrated to medals, points and the sequence to acquiring points may involve a story path we can engage with. Exercise is not always fun, but give me a way to get discounts as a result of tracking and publishing my running and I just might buy that new pair of running shoes.”

“Games will be used for some applications, but not the majority of the work of the world. Sadly.”

“Gamification will be used for purposes like education, health, work, etc. more than for entertainment in 2020. Companies are already trying to create and implement games that enforce teaching, learning, easier flow of information, and people want to use these new games. A negative of gamification going in this direction is that areas like education, health, and work might lose a personal aspect.”

“Gamification of other aspects of communications will not really have advanced much in ten years. People enjoy the risk and reward provided by game mechanics, but can become desensitized if too many activities adopt the model. For example, if every store requires its own branded shopping card, there comes a point when I am overwhelmed by the volume of cards I need to carry and manage, and subsequently am less likely to sign up for that additional new card—no matter the reward.”

“We need to focus on concepts like these as much as possible. They are great alternatives, and welcome additions the ways we currently problem solve, think, and resolve issues.”

“Are these mutually exclusive? Some daily functions, like medical reminders, could benefit from gamification. But if it’s not bounded by humans or human emotions, it won’t replace anything social.”

“Gamification currently exists unacknowledged in many aspects of our life but it’s still real games, not virtual games. Because of that, I think it’s easy to transfer that to education, health and work, especially with the development of specialized apps. I am not a gamer at all but I see the value of games for learning, accomplishing certain tasks, and for motivating employees, students, patients, etc.”

“Education and training primarily.”

“It’s not happening that fast. It will take more time, and much discussion (how much of what gamification can do ‘to’ people is OK?) will be needed to fully integrate that technology.”

“By 2020, television sports will be indistinguishable from gaming. An entire world of virtual play will dominate leisure time. We will fly model planes from iPad controls. Gamification will be overwhelming. But, it might help the elderly get in touch with their pasts and have all sorts of cool applications for virtual realities.”

“People will respond predictably to the offer of rewards in one form or another.”

“Gaming and other similar interactions are very specific to some people. There will always be those who don’t want to participate in any form of it.”

“Gamification is simply a refinement of feedback loops—nothing new there. It’s already integral. There’s no ‘will be’ about it—it’s here now, and is not new.”

“Gamification only appeals to a subset of the population. Contrary to what people like the founder of SCVNGR say, a game layer on top of the world is not of interest to a majority of people, particularly people over 25.”

“People will tend to spend their lives in play.”

“I don’t play games, so I don’t really have much to say, but I can imagine how they could be used in many positive ways to enhance learning in many fields.”

“On the Internet, everything is a ‘game.’”

“The compelling nature of game-like formats will draw people in. Technology addiction and decreased interpersonal skills will become increasing problems without public health oversight.”

“Gamification can motive some people, some of the time for certain activities. However, I don’t believe that human beings will adopt it universally.”

“Businesses are already using game theory.”

“Gaming—there is no such word as ‘gamification’—will be determined by the market. Used carefully it can be very useful for teaching, though I have my doubts about knowledge retention from virtual versus real-world experience. Perhaps future generations will want everything virtual, as a game, but the fact remains it’s still not real. If you move further into simulations then it can be very useful and I see a big future for that based on the military and so on, but making a game out of everything is dangerous. If no one reads, who is there to turn the book into a movie or game?”

“Gamification implies self-gratification; are we there yet?”

“By 2020, human behavior will not have changed significantly to embrace games and roles in everyday transactions. The Internet will be more of a utility tool than a way of life. People who for decades have championed Internet-based life and 100% adoption will be unhappy when utility grids, banking, and food supplies—essentials rather than luxuries—have been hacked and breached by foreign governments or terrorists. Our previous lifestyle of games and entertainment in 2012 will seem quaint and frivolous.”

“I see no evidence of this trend.”

“Gamification is a trendy topic that will die out over the next couple of years. The verdict is out on how much it truly provides people with a more positive experience, plus businesses will be very conservative about ‘gamifying’ applications due to economic considerations and the opportunity cost related to other initiatives they need to fund.”

“People prefer a small number of reputable currencies like Americans using dollars and frequent flier miles. While people may plan vacations with flier miles, more obscure point systems can’t be used for traveling or retirement planning.”

“I hope it is the former scenario presented above that becomes reality. In reality, there is little ‘gaming’ to the game of life.”

“Oddly enough, it’s been Weight Watchers online that has sold me on the power of game mechanics and feedback loops. Tracking my numbers, trying to figure out what I can do to decrease my daily score, seeing if I can meet the ‘game’ parameters, and then seeing real results made me a believer. No one is forcing me to do this—I’m trying to beat myself at this game. It seems to me that using similar thinking to improve recycling, cut electrical use, or improve health has an enormous amount of potential.”

“The issue here is that the two options are not really parallel. Likely, gamification will continue apace in the commercial sector and have a less pronounced impact in education.”

“Gamification will be everywhere, but it won’t be called that. Perhaps inferential sociology or some other phrase. As computer power progresses, it makes sense this extra power will be used for inferential experiences, especially in education.”

“The success of game-players in making a breakthrough on the AIDS front recently gives me hope.”

“Gamification was around a decade or more ago in the form of simulation, about which much has been predicted. However, I do not think as much has been fully realized as possible.”

“The growing and increasingly fascinating field of neuroscience will drive this trend. As we have seen with other social and psychological research, once it’s seen as a way to make money, improve return on investment, etc., it will go mainstream. It’s starting to happen already; why wouldn’t corporate America and the education sector jump on this trend to gain a marketing advantage?”

“I do see gaming as becoming a greater influence in many sectors, especially in education, but not playing a major role in our lives by 2020. It will just be marginally more prominent than it is now.”

“We are already here with badges, levels, etc. We’re looking for alternate ways to construct our learning. Games may be the equivalent of storytelling.”

“I’ve got one word for you Farmville. My 70 years and older aunts are playing it. In an educational context, games are being used productively in diverse fields such as game theory (economics) and physics.”

“Gamification will play an important role in the everyday activities of the world, because people nowadays are virtual.”

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