Fair or not, President-elect George W. Bush’s first 100 days in office will likely be used as a measuring stick to judge the effectiveness of his entire presidency. That’s the conclusion an esteemed panel drew during Elon’s Jan. 11 Winter Term Symposium titled, “Inaugurating the Millennium: The First 100 Days of the 21st Century Presidency.”
Former network television correspondent Sander Vanocur moderated the lively and enlightening discussion among three panelists: former presidential advisor David Gergen, and acclaimed presidential historians Michael Beschloss and William Leuchtenburg. They all agreed that Bush faces a very difficult time in his first 100 days in office because of the lack of voter mandate and the lingering bitterness over the election.
“He faces a very difficult situation,” Leuchtenburg said, “not only because of the fact he comes in with his opponent having a majority of the popular vote…but with a Senate that’s evenly divided and a House that is almost evenly divided.”
Since Franklin D. Roosevelt successfully pushed 15 bills through Congress during the first 100 days of his presidency in 1933, that standard has been used to judge every president. “We look at them very much by this measure and it’s not a very good thing,” said Beschloss, who discussed John F. Kennedy’s administration.
Kennedy came to office in 1960 without a clear mandate, so he tried to unite the country around the fear of the Soviet Union and the Cold War. But by the time Kennedy’s first 100 days were over, he had suffered a significant defeat with the Bay of Pigs invasion and then watched as the Russians sent the first man into space.
“He felt it was so important to raise his stature that he did a few things to shore himself up,” Beschloss said, including committing to build up the nation’s defense and put the first man on the moon. But the Soviet Union thought Kennedy was planning a first strike against them, leading to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. “Kennedy was much too shaken and much too spooked about what people would think of him…had those things not happened in the first 100 days, I believe we would have been spared the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Beschloss said.
Gergen, who was an advisor to four presidents, said the importance of the first 100 days cannot be downplayed. “It’s terribly important to a president to use those hundred days well. It’s extraordinarily difficult to succeed,” Gergen said.
Gergen said when he worked for Ronald Reagan, the administration took the first 100 days seriously. “That is the time when everybody in the country makes a new judgment about the man who’s been elected.” Even though Reagan’s presidency got off to a strong start, he saw his power begin to dissipate after the first month. But the March 1981 assassination attempt on Reagan turned the tide in his favor, Gergen said.
“While it almost cost him his life…when he got away from all his handlers, he started those quips, such as ‘Gee honey, I forgot to duck.’” Gergen believes the shooting helped to rally the public behind Reagan. Americans saw Reagan as a real person, using humor while fighting for his life.
As Bush prepares to take office, the panel agreed he must work to reach out to Democrats. They also agreed that Bush faces a world that is drastically different from any of his predecessors. “It’s harder to govern in Washington today than it was in 1981,” Gergen said, noting that media scrutiny is stronger than ever before. He says he once counted 24 television cameras outside the White House during Bill Clinton’s administration. “I think that puts the president under a microscope that, frankly, the office doesn’t bear too easily,” Gergen said.
Vanocur agrees that cable television, the Internet and 24-hour news have drastically changed the rules of the game for U.S. presidents. “You didn’t have all these (correspondents) standing out there having to say something every hour on the hour,” Vanocur said.
And like it or not, Vanocur believes Bush will be subject to the same 100-day report card as every president since 1933. “Historians have already and will continue to measure how these presidents have succeeded in their first hundred days in office,” Vanocur said.
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