Election analyst Charles Cook visited Elon Monday, Sept. 15, and told a group of reporters and faculty members that U.S. Senator John Edwards needs everything to fall in place if his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination is to be successful.
“An anti-(Howard) Dean candidate will emerge; this is Edwards’ only hope,” said Cook, a frequent guest on major network news shows. “If (Richard) Gephardt doesn’t win in Iowa, Gephardt is dead. If (John) Kerry doesn’t win New Hampshire, Kerry is mortally wounded.” Only those two outcomes in the early presidential primaries, Cook said, give Edwards a chance to move up in the polls.
Cook, who spoke later in the day to an audience in Whitley Auditorium, said Howard Dean’s fundraising efforts, which could net $15 million in contributions in the third quarter of this year, are outpacing those of other candidates combined.
“I think there are three things that are important to winning the election: Iowa, New Hampshire and money,” said Cook, editor and publisher of The Cook Political Report. “I don’t know how anyone can say that Dean’s not the frontrunner right now.”
Cook is an analyst for the National Journal Group, where he writes weekly for National Journal magazine and CongressDailyAM. He is an analyst for CNN’s “Inside Politics” and has also served as an election night analyst for CBS and NBC.
Asked about low voter turnout in American elections, Cook cited two factors that keep voters away from the polls.
“Ask a European how many elections they vote in during a four-year cycle, and they’ll tell you two, maybe three,” Cook said. “I bet the average number of American elections over a four-year period is closer to 10 or 12. There are too many elections and frequently, they are for offices that people don’t know anything about.” Cook also said the percentage of the voting age population that is ineligible to vote, due to citizenship status, prior felony convictions and other reasons, has risen from 2-3 percent in the 70s to 12-13 percent today.
Cook’s visit to Elon was sponsored by the Elon Institute for Politics and Public Affairs and the political science department.