How will the Internet change the workplace, family life, education and many other foundations of society between 2004 and 2014? Significantly in a future that’s up for grabs – that’s the view of the nearly 1,300 technology experts and scholars who responded to The Future of the Internet I survey.
“Up for Grabs: The Future of the Internet, Volume 1,” now available from Cambria Press, is the first volume of a book series directed by Janna Quitney Anderson, an associate professor in the School of Communications. The series draws upon the data collected in surveys Anderson helps conduct for the Pew Internet & American Life Project and Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center. Thus far, three surveys have been fielded since 2004. “Up for Grabs” relates details of Survey I, which was originally released in 2005.
The extensive elaborations supplied by Survey I respondents provide a vision of a networked, digital future that enhances many peoples’ lives but also has distressing implications. The big-picture Internet issues of the next decade, as foreseen by the experts in this survey, include the potential for one or more devastating attacks on the information infrastructure; positive and negative changes in the family dynamic; a conflict between our desire for privacy, security and ownership of intellectual property and our desire for the convenience of free information sharing on networked devices; and a concern over being inundated with information. Among the findings:
- Two-thirds predict at least one devastating attack on the information infrastructure or power grid by 2014. Some experts believe serious attacks will become a regular part of life.
- 59 percent predict increased government and business surveillance as computing devices are embedded in appliances, cars, phones and even clothing.
- 57 percent predict more virtual schools with students grouped by interests and skills.
- 56 percent predict a blurring of the boundaries between work and leisure.
- 54 percent look for a new age of creativity in which people use the Internet to collaborate.
- 53 percent predict that all video, audio, print and voice communications will stream to coordinating computers in homes and offices via the Internet.
The Internet experts said the news and publishing industries will undergo the most dramatic changes over the next decade, with new “digital-media titans” forming connections across media, entertainment, advertising and commerce. They also predict major changes ahead for educational institutions, workplaces and health care institutions. Fewer changes are predicted for religious organizations. While the experts were generally impressed with the speed and scope of change that the Internet has brought, there were some areas of disappointment. Many survey respondents said they are surprised at the slow rate of change in educational institutions. Many also said health care is a decade behind other industries in adopting new information technology, with the greatest changes ahead in areas such as online patient records and consultation via the Internet with healthcare professionals. Privacy remains a concern for sophisticated Internet users as new convenience technologies expand the ability to track users and their activities. Some experts predict increasing numbers of arrests based on surveillance by government, while others are concerned about “social surveillance” by businesses that track habits of their customers.
About the series: Technology builders, entrepreneurs, consultants, academicians, and futurists from around the world share their wisdom in The Future of the Internet surveys conducted by the Pew Internet & American Life Project and Elon University. The series of surveys garners smart, detailed assessments of multi-layered issues from a variety of voices, ranging from the scientists and engineers who created the first Internet architecture to social commentators to technology leaders in corporations, media, government and higher education. Among the respondents are people affiliated with many of the world’s top organizations, including IBM, AOL, Microsoft, Intel, ICANN, the Internet Society, Google, W3C, Internet2, Oracle, Harvard, MIT, Yale, the Federal Communications Commission, FBI, U.S. Census Bureau, Social Security Administration and U.S. Department of State.
About the authors: Janna Anderson is director of the Imagining the Internet Center, a Webby Honors-winning online compilation of survey studies and documentary videos illuminating the future of the internet. She serves on the editorial board of Newspaper Research Journal, is a reviewer for New Media & Society, and is a contributor to State of the Future reports. Susannah Fox is associate director of the editorial department at the Pew Internet & American Life Project. She graduated from Wesleyan University with a degree in anthropology and is a frequent speaker on topics such as Internet health resources and privacy online. Lee Rainie is the founding director of the Pew Internet & American Life Project. Prior to launching the Pew Internet Project, Lee was managing editor of U.S. News & World Report. He is a graduate of Harvard University and has a master’s degree in political science from Long Island University.
The book can be ordered from Cambria Press:
http://www.cambriapress.com/cambriapress.cfm?template=4&bid=193
The Imagining the Internet Center sponsors work that brings people together to share their visions for the future of communications and the future of the world. The Center’s research holds a mirror to humanity’s use of communications technologies, informs policy development, exposes potential futures and provides a historic record. It was established to illuminate emerging issues in order to serve the greater good. It explores and provides insights into emerging network innovations and their global development, dynamics, delivery, diffusion and governance.
The ITIC, housed at Elon University’s School of Communications, is a network of faculty, students, staff, alumni, advisers and friends who are working to identify, explore and engage with the challenges and opportunities of new communications forms and the issues they raise. It investigates the tangible and potential pros and cons of new-media channels through active research. It analyzes a spectrum of issues including politics, power, privacy, property, augmented reality, synthetic and mirror worlds, control, commerce and the challenges presented by accelerating technology.
It works to expose and help develop best practices for international development efforts in distribution and use of information and communication technologies. The products of its research are presented in an open, online platform incorporating audio, video, archived content, research studies, quotable internet predictions and other resources, all available to the public for free.