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Predictions Surveys

How will the accelerating impact of networked technology and people change our lives and our world?

Researchers at Elon University and the Pew Research Internet, Science & Technology Project have conducted canvassings of experts in 2004, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018 asking them to share their expectations for the future based on trends at the time. They are offered a series of questions or scenarios with which they can choose to agree or disagree, and they are asked to elaborate on their remarks in written responses that provide insights into issues. The links below will lead you to data from these canvassings. Each data set includes each official Pew-Elon report, plus an exclusive look at every answer submitted, thousands of quotable predictions shared by respondents.

Future of the Internet X -  December 2018

Digital life is augmenting human capacities and disrupting eons-old human activities. Code-driven systems have spread to more than half of the world’s inhabitants in ambient information and connectivity, offering previously unimagined opportunities and unprecedented threats. As emerging algorithm-driven artificial intelligence (AI) continues to spread, will people be better off by 2030? Some 979 technology pioneers, innovators, developers, business and policy leaders, researchers and activists answered this question. This canvassing was woven into a 122-page December 10, 2018, report based on hundreds of pages of responses from expert respondents. Respondents said the rise of AI will bring benefits and even save lives, but many expressed concerns about how AI will affect what it means to be human, to be productive and to exercise free will.

Future of the Internet IX - Spring 2018

Several questions about the impacts of digital life on individuals' well-being were answered by 1,150 respondents from mid-December 2017 to mid-January 2018. This canvassing yielded a concise 86-page report and a fuller 272-page report based on 444 pages of written elaborations that contain thousands of predictive statements. The reports were published by Imagining the Internet and Pew Research April 17, 2018. Respondents answered the following three questions: 1) Over the next decade, how will changes in digital life impact people’s overall well-being physically and mentally - will it be mostly helpful to well-being, mostly harmful or about the same as today? 2) Do you think there are any actions that might be successfully taken to reduce or eradicate potential harms of digital life to individuals' well-being? 3) Please share a brief personal anecdote about how digital life has changed your daily life, your family's life or your friends' lives in regard to well-being.

Future of the Internet VIII - 2017

Several questions about the future of the information environment were answered by 1,116 respondents in the summer of 2017. One massive report including more than 200 pages of data from this canvassing was published by Imagining the Internet and Pew Research Oct. 19, 2017. Respondents answered the following question: The rise of "fake news" and the proliferation of doctored narratives that are spread by humans and bots online are challenging publishers and platforms. Those trying to stop the spread of false information are working to design technical and human systems that can weed it out and minimize the ways in which bots and other schemes spread lies and misinformation. The question - In the next 10 years, will trusted methods emerge to block false narratives and allow the most accurate information to prevail in the overall information ecosystem? Or will the quality and veracity of information online deteriorate due to the spread of unreliable, sometimes even dangerous, socially-destabilizing ideas?

Future of the Internet VII - 2016

Five questions were answered by more than 1,500 experts in an online survey during the summer of 2016. A series of five reports tied to data from this canvassing were published by Imagining the Internet and Pew Research throughout 2017. The series illuminated hopes and significant concerns revealed in thousands of predictive comments about the likely future. The five topics of the reports are: likely impacts of algorithms, big data and predictive analytics; issues tied to trends in content and tone of online discourse via social media; security and issues with the embedded Internet and the Internet of Things; global trust in the Internet; and future training for future jobs

Future of the Internet VI - 2014

Eight reports tied to data from Future Survey VI were published by Imagining the Internet and Pew Research over the course of 2014. The series, published to coincide with the 25th anniversary of the World Wide Web, was titled Digital Life in 2025. This collection of expert's opinions about the overall impact of the Internet by 2025 includes predictive statements by more than 1,600 people who shared comments about the likely future, including separate reports on: security, privacy, and civil liberties; the embedded Internet, wearables, and the Internet of Things; artificial intelligence and robotics applications; the potential for cyber attacks; looming threats to the Internet; killer apps of the future; and the overall likely future of digital life in 2025

Future of the Internet V - 2012

Here you will find the results from eight reports tied to data from Future Survey V, people's 2011-12 predictions about the likely future of the Internet in 2020 - imagining the future for the always-on, hyperconnected generation in their teens-to-20s by 2020; the future of  the mobile Web, HTML5 and native apps; the future of individuals' financial transactions and e-money; the future of gamification, the implementation of game mechanics for interactivity and engagement; "smart systems" and the future of efficient homes; the future of corporate responsibility in the digital age; the future influence of "Big Data"; and the future of higher education. Respondents replied to these questions in late 2011, and their answers reflect the issues at that point in time.

Future of the Internet IV - 2010

Respondents shared thousands of opinions on various Internet issues - exposing predictive statements in a qualitative and quantitative survey from late in 2009 through early 2010. Experts were asked about the Internet and the evolution of: intelligence; reading and the rendering of knowledge; identity and authentication; gadgets and applications; the core values of the Internet; institutions; the semantic Web; cloud computing; social relations; and young people's adoption of communications technologies. This site offers extra data tied to the series of Elon/Pew reports, released with details of respondents' answers to the 10 questions asked in the 2010 Elon University/Pew Internet Future of the Internet survey. (Data from the three earlier "Future of the Internet" surveys had been released in single reports. 2010 data was  released in six reports.)

Future of the Internet III - 2008

Participants in this Web-based survey filed their responses in the timespan from late in 2007 through the early weeks of 2008. This particular group of survey respondent predicted that in 2020 the mobile device will be the primary tool for connection, talk and touch interfaces will be prevalent, tolerance will not increase, IP conflicts will remain unresolved and hyperconnectivity will alter some social structures. The answers to the questions asked in this survey were compiled into one overarching report.

Future of the Internet II - 2006

Respondents participated in this Web-based survey from late in 2005 through the early weeks of 2006. They were asked to respond to issues that included: the pros and cons of pervasive, autonomous technology; the loss of privacy; the impact of virtual reality; the "flat-world" revolution; the possibility that some people living "off the grid" may protest violently against accelerating technology; and world priorities in regard to developing information and communication technologies. They shared fascinating insights that are all gathered up in a single report.

Future of the Internet I - 2004

Nearly 1,300 technology stakeholders participated in Imagining the Internet and Pew' first "Future of the Internet" study, fielded in the fall of 2004. One report shares a selection of their responses to a set of 18 questions about: institutions that are undergoing change; the future of civic engagement; embedded networks; security; and threats. Most of the respondents classified themselves as research scientists, entrepreneurs/business leaders, authors/journalists or technology developers/administrators.