I expect that this will take longer than a decade, but it will happen. Schools and colleges are enormously resistant to this kind of change - more so than I would have predicted ten years ago. As a result, traditional methods of learning will slowly start to compete with the "upstarts," first, the "proprietary colleges." Then, one or more of the older institutions will get aggressive in this arena - and then an avalanche will occur. At that point, we will truly move from "teaching" environments to "learning" environments, where students have more control over when, how, and with whom they learn. Master teachers will copyright their courses and lectures, and multimedia versions of those will become "best sellers." In the mid-term, this will all lead to a "crisis" in higher education, as the old breaks away and gives place to the new. The new will be better. - Gary Bachula, Internet2

I've spent enough time worrying about distance education to despair of this goal being met. Schools are awfully hidebound institutions. So, although I'd like to think this prediction will come true, I'm thinking the time scale is much longer - perhaps 50 years rather than 10. - Susan Crawford, policy analyst and fellow Center for Democracy & Technology and the Yale Law School Information Society Project

Schools have already lost major share in the market for education. Virtual classes are already happening - we'd better improve their content. - Bob Metcalfe, Polaris Venture Partners

I agree, but am saddened to think that human interaction will be decreased in this part of the growth and development process. - Bill Booher, Council on Competitiveness

This is already happening, where on-line education is being integrated with traditional educational programs. I like the combination of educational approaches better than pitting in-person and distance education against one another. I think that electronic education is a wonderful supplement to more traditional educational approaches. - Gary Kreps, George Mason University/National Cancer Institute

In most respects, I see this as a boon to learning, an opportunity for students from diverse backgrounds to share common experiences, and a fertile field for creative teaching. I fear, however, that these technologies will also enable parents who so choose to circumscribe their children's educational and social environments in ways that fail to prepare the children for diverse workplaces and communities. - Lois C. Ambash, Metaforix Inc.

My students think that "library" is part of a web address, as in "library.utoronto.ca" They go to the online library to read things, but they miss out on serendipitous, mind-expanding browsing through book shelves. If it isn't on the first page or two of Google, it doesn't exist. What will happen to the Library of Congress (or Dewey Decimal) cataloguing system if it is not used? - Barry Wellman, University of Toronto

There will be more choice, but education will still be in classrooms. However, the nature of knowledge and authority are changing rapidly. - David Weinberger, Evident Marketing Inc.

I do not now, and have never, witnessed successful benefits in virtual classrooms. While the role of the teacher will change from authority figure with all the information to one-on-one educational coach, the one-teacher-one-student paradigm will remain the most effective. - Moira Gunn, Tech Nation

I agree with the second part of this statement. I do NOT agree with the first part concerning self-paced instruction, particularly for U.S. high school and college students. There is only a limited amount of time available to learn key skills that are essential in later life. The number of those skills seems to be constantly increasing even though the time spent in school is relatively constant. I don't believe it's socially responsible to allow high school students to take basket weaving as opposed to classes that will allow them to read and write and do math at a high school senior level. To do that will mostly condemn them to a life of limited opportunities. The whole function of education is to expand an individual's opportunities. Sometimes that means students need to be encouraged to challenge themselves. If a lot of students are given the choice, they would rather play. Who blames them for that? Unfortunately, a lot of students do not see the downstream ramifications of increasing playtime over work time. - Robert Lunn, FocalPoint Analytics/USC Digital Future Project

There are some situations and uses of "virtual" classes. But, of all these "predications," I feel safest in predicting that the general educational setting will look very similar 10 years from now. Tools will change (e.g., less time in traditional library, more available online). But physical facilities, meeting in classroom will remain predominant. - Benjamin M. Compaine, editor of "The Digital Divide: Facing a Crisis or Creating a Myth?"

Learners of all ages will have more tools at their disposal and larger networks of people from which to learn - often without time or place limitations. Lucky ones will even be in communities or professions in which the traditional expectations for judging quality will be liberated. Unfortunately for the rest of us, a short ten years - even with the rapid growth of more market-responsive for-profit enterprises - will not be long enough to really take advantage of the new forms of learning enabled by the internet. - Christine Geith, Michigan State University

Student and parental choice is enabled by increasing reliance and adoption of the Internet. Without a doubt, formal education will become more "customer-friendly" and responsive to student expectations, beliefs, and desires. I do not foresee a future where every student takes an online class - this is too linear an assumption about how the Internet will affect education. Rather, I see every face-to-face class supplemented with collaborative online tools and resources. This blended model to delivering education will challenge the prevailing views of distance education today. There will always be virtual courses, and they will grow in popularity, but they will never be a mainstream part of most students' K-12 education. - Douglas Levin, policy analyst for Cable in the Classroom

This will be increasingly true as the age of the student increases. There will be relatively few virtual classes at the primary level, and far more at the university and adult education levels. - Jonathan Band, partner at Morrison & Foerster LLP, a law firm

I would like to believe this vision, and it could happen, but pedagogically it seems unlikely. The Internet represents a completely different style of learning. School children and college students would have to learn to be independent, not dependent learners. This requires a huge cultural change. Everything suggests in the UK that the Government would like to rely on virtual teaching because it might appear cheaper. In reality it will cost more in staff and student time. I suspect that the Internet will be a very helpful resource for education, which might represent a sea-change in learning for a very limited number of students, especially mature students who don't want to attend a campus. - Nigel Jackson, Bournemouth University, UK

This might well happen, but it need not be a good thing. If people are taught to hang out only with those of like interests, mastery and skills, they will become less tolerant of diversity. More medieval. - Peter Denning, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, Calif.

The technology is there to achieve this; the resources and public will is not. The obsession with standardized test scores is in direct contradiction to allowing students to make their own choices, and it's political suicide to suggest we abandon this obsession. Lack of money and resources will also make it impossible for many schools to take advantage of the technology. - Rose Vines, freelance tech writer for Australian PC User and Sydney Morning Herald

Kids will always be the most creative users of technology. The current classroom setup is just another by-product of the assembly line culture of the industrial revolution, with its neat rows of desks facing the classroom leader (the teacher). - Jonathan Peizer, Open Society Institute

As much as I endorse collaborative learning and student-to-student interaction, I know that many of my colleagues see that as a case of the blind leading the blind. For many, learning is really about the absorption of content, not the making of meaning. For that to change, we need a change in the culture of teaching and learning, not just the technological means. And that will happen slowly, not quickly. Perhaps that's not entirely a bad thing. The student-as-consumer analogy is flawed: students often learn, not because they want to, but because they are made to. If learning becomes choice-driven, what's to prevent many from making the choice to do less, learn less, tune out? - George Otte, technology expert

Learning networks are already becoming a global business, driven by the needs of the developing world. However, the pace of change should not be exaggerated. Many of those attending virtual classes will be sitting in groups in local learning centres, for social and technical support, not in isolation. It will be mixed-mode learning. - Philip Virgo, secretary general, EURIM - UK-based Parliament Industry Group/also works with IMIS - UK-based profesional body for management of information systems

I agree, although I don't necessarily think that this will help with the develop of many skills young people need to succeed. This type of learning is best applied later in the learning process, once fundamental skills are well-established. - Michelle Manafy, editor, Information Today Inc./Econtent magazine and Intranets newsletter

We are pushing hard for the integration of computer and video games into the classroom and think we are making some headway. But schools are among those institutions in our society that are most resistant to change, and your prediction above assumes more radical changes than they are apt to accept. Much of the online learning will continue to be part of the expansion of the role of informal out-of-school learning in student's lives. - Harry Jenkins, MIT Comparative Media Studies

Humans need to interact with other humans in person to learn. Virtual learning is but one piece of the puzzle. - Joshua Fouts, executive director, USC Center on Public Diplomacy

See earlier comments on radical changes. By 2014, an education will certainly include some virtual courses, along with "classical" courses. In addition, students will be able to go abroad or engage in internships while remaining full-time students. So, the variety of educational experience will be enhanced by use of the Internet. - Stanley Chodorow, University of California at San Diego/Council on Library and Information Resources

This will be only one of the changes education will suffer in the next decade. However, such changes will be more visible and widely implemented at the highest levels of education. The younger are the students, the less people accept changes in education policies. - Carlos Andrés Peña, scientific technical leader, Novartis Pharma

Look at outside factors that could slow this down, such as opposition by teacher's unions fearing loss of jobs. Counter that with the value of accelerated learning (esp. where there are NOT enough teachers or tools), access to remote skills and sources. I'm not sure if the infrastructure (especially the last mile or last few meters) will be sufficiently deployed by 2014. - Gary Arlen, Arlen Communications

There will still be an important role for in-class education and in-person activities in school. However, these will be enhanced by the use of IT, and, outside of school, young people will continue to develop new and different associations around the globe through sharing of specific interests, skills etc. - Ezra Miller, Ibex Consulting, Ottawa, Canada

The methods of formal education always lag far behind the possibilities offered by technological advances. Currently, technology promises the chance to tailor education curriculum to individual needs of students. In ten years, we will see demonstrations of individualized education applied on a small scale, but it will be several more decades before pedagogy make full use of technology to maximize the individual potential of each student. - Scott Moore, Charles and Helen Schwab Foundation

The educational system will be among the most transformed by nearly free availability of educational material and increasingly sophisticated learning environments. - William Stewart, LivingInternet.com

K-12 education is an amazingly conservative institution in the U.S. (I'm not commenting on other countries here.) Local control, even in an era of increased emphasis on federal standards, means that change in school systems is incremental and irregular when viewed from a national perspective. - Laura Breeden, Education Development Center
But this does not guarantee excellence and may lead to a fair degree of shallowness of education based on personal interests. - Michael Dahan, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Comparative Media, Israel

Do I want to be Plato and bemoan the loss of the great Greek memory skills with the advent of literacy? Maybe. I've been at the forefront of adopting these technologies in the classroom, of trying to implement these ideals. Now I'm stepping back and reconsidering. I'm finding a loss of higher levels of learning (and disciplined learning) in these free-form online versions of the ''open classroom'' experiment in physical classrooms in the 1970s. I will always remain a champion of active learning, of overthrowing the authoritarian classroom. But many, when left to their own devices, ignoring even the guides on the side, sandbagging in collaborative groups, gaming the system, are lapsing into higher and higher levels of ignorance, to the point where they have lost the critical thinking abilities to penetrate the logical fallacies and leaps of politicians, to where they fall prey to fascist manipulators of public opinion and become part of an ignorant mob. This is dangerous for sustaining a free society. How can it be that by challenging the authoritarian nature of traditional classrooms, we leave our students more vulnerable to authoritarian demagogues in other venues? Is this the classic case of the Boomer Hippie parents raising kids who rebel by becoming authoritarian goose-steppers? Perhaps too much loosely structured learning creates a reversal... like McLuhan's media reversals. - Christine Boese, cyberculture researcher/CNN Headline News

Involvement, yes, but if by civic one means ''proximate or geographic communities'' I do not think so. The internet acts as an intensifier but does not per se create linkages or communities. - Paul M.A. Baker, Georgia Centers for Advanced Communications Technology

In the U.S. at least, this simply can't be the case given the timeframe listed. Reform to the educational system is like turning a battleship. As is, schools are facing economic disparity, a massive shortage in funding for teachers,let alone infrastructure/technology improvements. Add to that the idea of changing an entire curriculum delivery system; it just can't be done in that amount of time. Furthermore, the education of the U.S. youth is stil falling behind that of the rest of the world. Virtual classes would serve nothing more than to further the advances of a few while likely allowing the larger group to remain stagnant. While parents and educators stress the need of more individual attention per student, this ''virtual class room'' would seem to fly directly in the face of that. - Cory Mettee, Computer Team Inc.

Yes, and in the next decade, that's probably more good than bad. The field of elementary and secondary education has really been unable or unwilling to make wholesale changes to its instruction methodology, so it's good to start incorporating new ideas and technology. While there are many who would blame the teachers' unions for slowing the pace of progress here, we can see how the rapid and thoughtless embrace of technology by others has made them unable to now moderate its effects. We'll look back on the upcoming decade and say that the educators got it right, by painfully scrutinizing every incursion into their classrooms. - Peter Eckart, Hull House Association

As more homes obtain high-speed connection capabilities and lower income households obtain internet-capable computers, a dramatic paradigm shift from the classroom towards allowing masses of students to tap into top quality learning experiences online will give a whole new meaning to ''home school." New technologies will be further refined allowing automated grading, homework will be tailored to appropriately challenge young learners based on where they are as learners and what they are capable of achieving rather than on the lowest common denominator in an overcrowded classroom ? Just as technical advances in the manufacturing sector have drastically changed the role of the factory workers and business owners, so too will internet technology effect the educational infrastructure of teachers, administrators, suppliers and governmental public education bureaucracies. - Richard W. DeVries Jr., DeVries Strategic Services, St. Charles, IL

And the following are from predictors who chose to remain anonymous: [Workplaces of respondents whose reactions are listed below include Microsoft, RAND, The Aspen Institute, National Public Radio, Ventureramp, Sheridan Institute of Technology and Applied Learning, Canada Institute for Information Technology, University of Pennsylvania, Internet2, EPCOR, eHealth Institute, The Center for American Progress, Princeton University, the New America Foundation, Carnegie Mellon, Harvard, Stanford, South East England Development Agency, USA Today, the Center for Educational Technology, U.S. Census Bureau, University of Glasgow, University of York, The Institute for the Future, University of South Florida, Citigroup, the Indiana Higher Education Telecommunication System and others.]

This has been predicted for many years. It will increase, but not reach "most students."

Education is increasingly moving online, particularly at the university and post-graduate levels. In the next decade we will also see more effective use of online technology in K-12.

Well, maybe. I heard similar predictions for about every communication technology, e.g. cable TV or the French Minitel. There is some evidence that a growing number of students are taking online classes, but I can't tell you that this will be the case for "most students."

It didn't work in the past with other technologies, it hasn't worked with the Internet to date; in fact, distant education was always considered a second best to being there - current research supports these findings again with the Internet. ICTs will be a resource, not a replacement.

The possibility will provide greater opportunity for a sizeable minority, but active pursuit of knowledge by the majority, I think not.

This will be especially true for growing numbers of adult learners.

Collaboration software is progressing rapidly and classrooms are an ideal application for this technology.

Right direction, but it'll take longer to reach.

They already do ... much information is gleaned from Internet sources well outside the classroom.

I hope not. This will have adverse effects on education, which depends heavily upon face-to-face interaction between students and teachers (and among students).

There will be a continued need for structured education.

Lack of money and a lack of commitment to this sort of goal - and the inequity of funding in education, at least in the U.S. - makes this unlikely.

Based on my experiences with teaching in virtual teams, students will not take to "the mastery of their own education." Most students today, in fact, don't much value learning, but only the degree that they can put on their resume. Left to their own devices most students would do significantly less academic work.

The evidence of learning and of learnedness is to the contrary. There is nothing about the medium that will lead this way and more evidence that IT-in-education is a colossal failure.

Technology can only serve ends set by those who control it - I see no reason to believe that educators will choose to use the technology in this way, though it could have powerful results if they did choose to do so.

This will occur to some extent. Experience indicates that the time involved in producing quality virtual learning materials is high. Furthermore, one hopes that the best scholars are producing the learning materials as opposed people with IT prowess.

Let us hope this is our future. It cannot happen unless there is the political will to make it happen. So far, the evidence from the U.S. DOE and various state DOEs is dismal.

Not likely. Pace of change and innovation is slow. We are already in the "third decade" of the so-called "computer revolution" in education, yet there has been too little change in the majority of American classroom. What will change, however, is the role of the Web and Internet as a critical SUPPLEMENT to the activities in the classroom, both K-12 and college.

Fortunately or unfortunately this will probably be the case. On-line universities are already doing this; it is only a matter of time before it shifts to primary and secondary education. Unfortunately, such means of education, while excellent at the purely pedantic level, simply do not foster the development of social learning that exists in a more traditional environment.

This will take longer than 10 years. The educational and digital divides are on parallel tracks. We are headed for an argument between the cost of an education where the student is physically present on campus and the cost of a virtual education. A student who is charged the same rate for both will not see the value in virtual classes. For the virtual class to exist, there has to be a price point that makes it worthwhile to give up the experience of being there in person. If that does not happen, the virtual classroom will be a tactic in a learning portfolio; it will not be the centerpiece.

I would like to see the above scenario, but having been a professor for 10 years, mainstream education is very slow getting off the mark. Much of this change will come outside of school.

This is already beginning to take place, although generally not in the public school system that is bent on getting their school a good rating on the next assessment test.

Student behavior depends on change overtaking the educational bureaucracy. In other words, our human technology, i.e., how we agree to teach children, has to change before the kind of change you are talking about can come true in the classroom. Students already are learning tremendous amounts virtually, outside of the classroom, much of which is perhaps not what teachers would have them learn.

Increasingly the technology will be there to permit this, but educational institutions are very slow to change, and the result is that we still will make relatively little use of the capability except in certain niche areas.

Harvard and other major universities are not likely to go virtual. In fact, being on campus will become a thing of status. Online learning and virtual learning will allow more individuals to go to college, but it will take decades if not centuries for online learning to gain the same status as classroom learning. I see enhanced classrooms and dorm rooms ... but not a radical change in how learning occurs.

This will be true for a number of students but not most. Education will never move that fast.

Yes, but not in 10 years from now - today! This is already unfolding. Technologies for online learning are being brought in to the formerly offline classes. More formal aspects of learning (and thus also of teaching) will also extend out of the classroom and class time to fill the week. Indeed, this is already here.

When it comes to changing pedagogy, a decade is nothing. We will go on as we are for at least fifty years before things change significantly for most people. Some early users will do some changing in the next decade - but not many.

The traditional role of teacher will be diminished as students find peers and other authority figures from which learning can be done. The down side of this is that traditional training for teachers will be inadequate to deal with this kind of classroom, or how to exploit this kind of learning/teaching dynamic. Only a small portion of "school time" will be devoted to this learning environment, as it has traditionally been viewed as "extra curricular." Little value can be placed on the knowledge and skills attained with this learning becasue there exist no standardized measure of what students learn and apply outside the traditional classroom. There is potential for growth within the area of formal education, but little initiative or consensus on how to implement it.

There are limits on the efficacy of student-directed learning and I think they have already been discovered. The second statement seems more plausible.

Already happening. One of our local education authorities has deconstructed the curriculum in some of its schools and school kids pace themselves, using notebook PCs. The educational experience will be much more diverse and there will be a general upskilling. For disadvantaged groups, including those discriminated against, such as young black boys, the impact will be very positive.

The educational model will evolve to lifelong learning over degree institutions.

Rather than "freeing" students, the technology will be used to make mass education cheaper. For a small proportion, technology is a dynamic extension of an enriched educational process. But for many, it is simply a more efficient and economical way to deal with a burdensomely large student population with far too many needs.

Students will continue to require face-to-face mentoring. Part of school is social development. Graduate work will be almost entirely virtual.

I'm not sure, and this is pretty much where I spend most of my professional time. The instructional apparatus is very tenacious in protecting itself. And the K-12 teacher scaling issue is deadlocked (i.e., we can't reduce the student-teacher ratio much). I think it'll take another decade for the instructional population to turn over.

Learning is VERY difficult to do online. There would have to be very rapid change and development of the educational sphere for this to happen in next ten years. A lot of schools still don't integrate information tech into their physical infrastructure or curriculum.

They might want to do that, but our crumbling educational system is a sluggish, bureaucratic morass that cannot figure out how to budget for anything let alone innovate.

I believe the millennium generation will interact and socialise in radically different ways - this will have a major impact on the experience of education.

The need for formally sanctioned learning means traditional methods - and the power of professionals rather than students - will dominate. However, students will spend more of their study time outside of class in such virtual fora and very little in libraries or reading printed materials.

I am an educator. I regularly develop and teach online and partly online courses, and am fully convinced of their relevance and utility in some situations. But I do not believe that they will displace regular classes and real-time face-to-face interaction with teachers as a preferred mode of learning, especially in some content areas.

The trend toward directing learning according to student choices long predates the modern IT. What the Internet changes is opportunities for students to learn from people at a distance. The ''teachers'' in question may be other students, but may also include role models, mentors, and teachers elsewhere.

Even if we limit ourselves to the U.S., we're simply too far away from a society where ''most students'' have access to computers even some of the time. Much less where entire curricula could be designed around networked learning for anything more than a small fraction of the student population.

While I have no doubt that the technology permits and potentially could optimize virtual education, I do not see the conservative core of the country (U.S.) approving use of tax dollars for this purpose. I now live in a state that has an appalling policy that values a zero-based budget over necessary public education expenditures in the PRESENT let alone investments for the future.

I find it extremely difficult to believe that our educational structure in the U.S. could do something as revolutionary as allowing students to grow at their own pace. It would take a complete revolution in our educational system to make this happen.

By 2014, many of the wealthier suburban and private schools may well be in this ''advanced'' mode, but I don't think it will yet be the norm for ''most students.'' But the prediction itself isn't aligned well. ''Set by student choices'' could mean a haphazard pursuit of immature interests and fads or a carefully structured sequence of authentic learning experiences and inquiry learning projects that may or may not require online activity (e.g., the Anderson School of the Future in California is highly innovative in this regard but used little technology). I happen to believe that such a restructuring should occur and will be best enabled by strong doses of virtual/online interaction, but it will take longer than 10 more years to get even the majority of schools headed there. And we cannot afford to continue to widen the achievement gap for lower-income and racial/ethnic demographic groups of young people.

Students may THINK at first this is a good idea, and they may enroll in these virtual classes, and they will likely try one out, but the fact is (and I have taught and talked to a lot of learners in this environment) the only ones who can ''learn'' in this environment are (a) those who can read very well (b) write articulately and (c) are highly motivated to learn. That is limiting, to say the least. Plus most people want personal contact and group interaction in a learning environment. Until online audio-video real-time contact is generally available, virtual classes will not appeal to the majority of learners. It will be fine for ''mature'' learners who are highly motivated. For the average, it will not work. The vast majority of youthful students I speak to tell me that they would far prefer a ''regular'' class to a virtual class. For those who are at the MBA level or who are mature students who are holding down full-time jobs, I agree that they would prefer the virtual classroom, simply because it is the only realistic choice they have based on their situations, but even they would prefer a more traditional classroom. Maybe when the technology is ubiquitous and everyone can have broadband and all classes can be simulcast it may work. In the meantime ... virtual classes will remain the last option for most students.

Going all the way back to the Minnesota PLATO system, we've seen predictions that computers would transform learning. But people want to learn in social settings. The advancement we finally are seeing today is that the Internet is facilitating social interaction. It's all becoming easy to use and rich in terms of what can be conveyed and shared. I fully expect this to continue on a reasonable, gentle growth curve until computer-mediated interactions are a significant natural part of a learning experience - alongside the traditional classroom setting.

These are two very different items within the one question - I certainly don't predict education being increasingly driven by student choice, but increasingly by federal government directives that focus on demonstrable, relatively low-level skills. But, I also see more and more students working online as part of their coursework - whether as a home-school homework interface, content delivery during a school day, or substitution of some classes with online discussion sessions - but much of this will be driven by economics (i.e., fewer teachers can teach more students using online media) than by, say, research showing students learn more effectively online. Education - especially compulsory education spheres - has a woeful track record in taking up new technologies in meaningful and useful ways.

Schools are slow to evolve, and in-person student/teacher learning will remain the norm. Virtual classes are useful, but I don't believe they'll become the norm in the next ten years.

Students will never control their in-school choices and this is the largest threat to national competitiveness and security. We have taken away the teacher's sand box, his arrows and quiver. We are failing at education. Children have self-organized outside of institutionalized education to produce the KSA of future workforce needs. Network Video Game Builders are engaged in transdisciplinary, inquiry-driven, self-motivated learning. They are creating new worlds, new processes, new techniques, new languages and new knowledge. We can not seem to pierce the veil of the their play to understand their learning much less their attitudes, beliefs and aspirations. Generation Y is the ARCHITECT of global futures. Can we trust them? Can we entrust them? Can we trust ourselves enough to let them go? To be free: To explore? To invent? We are experiencing a renaissance. Institutionalized Education is LOST to industrial and agrarian structures, influences and perceptions. We need a qualitative transformation of learning from the students up. Teachers are students and those who get it are in it.