
n 15 years, there will be seamless
technology with superior security and bandwidth to what
we have today. Applications for wireless portability and faster access
will drive the demand. – Richard Yee,
competitive intelligence analyst, AT&T; internet user
since 1995
he Internet
will have gone beyond personal communications - many
more of today's 10 billion new embedded micros per
year will be on the Internet. – Bob Metcalfe,
Ethernet inventor, venture capitalist and partner in
Polaris Venture Partners; internet user since
1970
disagree; profit motives will impede
data flow. Although interconnectivity will be much
higher than ever imagined, networks will conform to the
public utility model with stakeholders in generation,
transmission, and distribution. Companies playing in
each piece of the game will enact roadblocks to collect
what they see as a fair share of tariff revenue.
– Peter Kim, senior analyst, Forrester
Research; internet user since 1993
lthough available, not everyone will be
connected to the network, thus continuing the divide
between "have" and "have not."
– Adrian Schofield, head of research for
ForgeAhead and leader with Information Industry of
South Africa; internet user since 1994
obile internet will be dominant. By
2020, most mobile networks will provide 1Gbit/s minimum
speed, anywhere, anytime. Dominant access tools will be
mobile, with powerful infrastructures characteristics
(memory, processing power, access tools), but zero
applications; all applications will come from the Net.
– Louis Nauges, president, Microcost, France;
internet user since 1990
low-cost network will exist. The question is how
interconnected and open it will be. The question is
whether we drift toward a "reintegration" of
content and infrastructure. – David Clark,
chief protocol architect during the development of the
internet in the 1980s, senior research scientist at
MIT; chairman of the Computer Science and
Telecommunications Board of the National Research
Council; internet user since 1975
o, new technologies requiring new
standards will ensure that (1) interoperability remains
a problem and (2) bandwidth will always be used up
preventing smooth data flow. Billing will remain a
problem in some parts of the world because such
monetary integration is inextricably political. Mobile
wireless will be available most places but high
quality/speed/reliability will always be only available
at a premium. – Bruce Edmonds, Centre for
Policy Modelling, Manchester Metropolitan University;
internet user since 1992
his is the direction that technology and
economics and markets are moving. However, the desire
by large owners of telecommunications pipes (e.g.,
cable companies, dsl providers) to control traffic
(i.e., by disallowing bits they don't approve from
traveling on their part of the network) could balkanize
the Internet. – Howard Rheingold, internet
sociologist and author; internet user since
1990
hile the society as a whole would be
likely to benefit from a networking nirvana, the
markets are unlikely to get there by 2020 due to
incumbent business models, insufficient adoption of new
cost compensation methods, and insufficient
sociotechnical abilities to model human trust
relationships in the digital world. – Pekka
Nikander, Ericcson Research, Helsinki Institute for
Information Technology; internet user since
1987
e
tend to overestimate how fast technology gets
installed, especially in third world countries. One is
tempted to say yes to this idea, given the tremendous
profusion of cellular over the past twenty years or so.
But it is far too optimistic. If one limited this to
first- and second-world countries, the answer would be
more clearly "yes it will happen." –
Craig Partridge, internet pioneer, chief scientist
BBN Technologies; internet user since 1983
y
2020 the costs for connectivity will be rolled into the
costs of the real products and services. For example,
the connectivity cost for making a restaurant
reservation online will be borne by the restaurant. A
few nations (or cities) may choose to make smooth,
low-cost, ubiquitous communications part of their
national industrial and social infrastructure (like
electrical power and roads). Others (and I'd
include the United States here) will opt for an
oligopoly of providers that allows for limited
alternatives while concentrating political and economic
power. Individuals and businesses will provide local
enclaves of high quality connectivity for themselves
and their guests. A somewhat higher cost
"anywhere" (e.g. cellular) infrastructure
will be available where governments or planned
communities don't already include it as an amenity.
I believe that the Internet will not be uniform in
capability or quality of service in 2020: there will be
different tiers of service with differentiated services
and pricing. For example, there might be a social
"safety net" (yes, that's a pun) of low-
or no-cost service whose packets hide in the
interstices of higher-priority, higher-paying traffic.
– Glenn Ricart, Price Waterhouse Coopers;
former program manager at DARPA and internet pioneer;
member of the board of trustees of the Internet
Society; internet user since 1968
obile wireless communications will be
very widely available, but "extremely low
cost" makes economic assumptions about the back
sides of mountains in Afghanistan and the behavior of
entrepreneurs in Africa. Also, the concept of anything
on earth being "perfect" is just short of
ludicrous. Interoperability will have improved, but I
seriously doubt that it will ever be perfect. The
Internet thrives today because it enables the
deployment of new applications from the edge without
operational support or intervention at a reasonable
cost. If in 2020 this is no longer true, I believe that
the Internet as we know it will no longer be a viable
communication vehicle, and that other varieties of
networks will replace it. So, yes, I suspect that there
will be a global low-cost network in 2020. That is not
to say that interoperability will be perfect, however.
There are various interests that have a vested interest
in limiting interoperability in various ways, and they
will in 2020 still be hard at work. – Fred
Baker, CISCO Fellow; chairman of the board for the
Internet Society (ISOC); internet user since
1987
s
a stubborn optimist/idealist, I HOPE this will be true.
However it will only occur to the extent that the power
and greed of massive private-sector conglomerates can
be held in check, and the desire of governments to
censor and control content can be restrained. It will
obviously vary wildly, between nations. Also, one
advantage that poor nations have, is that they often
have no established infrastructure that will be
threatened. – Jim Warren, founding editor of
Dr. Dobb's Journal, technology-policy advocate,
futurist; internet user since 1970
his depends on technology standards
exceeding the self-interest of proprietary network
owners, like mobile operators, cable and telephony
network owners, and so forth. So timing is still open,
but most likely by 2020. – Stewart Alsop,
investor and analyst; internet user since
1994
significant reduction on the digital divide only will
take place in a new international environment, with a
genuine multi-sector cooperation. We don't have a
landscape like that now. In absence of that commitment,
we will see an irregular and inequitable development of
the wired and wireless resources. – Raul
Trejo-Delarbre, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de
Mexico; internet user since 1993
he problem of the digital divide is too
complex and the power of legacy telco regulatory
regimes too powerful to achieve this utopian dream
globally within 15 years. – Ian Peter,
Internet Mark II Project, Australia; internet user
since 1986
ubiquitous network environment more closely integrated
in our daily lives will need to be much more flexible
than the internet and adapt better to national
cultural, political (regulatory) and economic norms.
This is evident because communications technology is
moving much faster than human beings can adapt to it.
Much of the content control, authentication and billing
paradigms to emerge are likely to be driven by
cross-border audio-visual content delivery over
broadband networks. This is happening at the same time
as convergence is setting two regulatory cultures on a
rapid collision course: the highly-interventionist
regulatory culture of broadcasting and less
interventionist (at least with regard to content)
culture of telecommunications. Draft audio-visual
policy legislation in both the EU and the US is
grappling with how current rules for broadcasting
should be applied in an always-on broadband
environment. Traditionally, the regulation of
audio-visual industries is culturally embedded and tied
to national regulatory regimes consistent with cultural
and religious values. Issues that must be addressed
include advertising, content diversity, licensing,
quality, decency and protection from abusive uses.
Where broadband platforms and global service providers
show declining respect for national boundaries, what
will become of public broadcasting, support for
national content production and community standards?
Cross-border tensions on audio-visual policies will
continue to rise in importance and with the
ineffectiveness of national regulatory regimes to deal
with them, there will be a bigger push for both
"national walled gardens" and international
cooperation. – Robert Shaw, internet strategy
and policy advisor, International Telecommunication
Union; internet user since 1987
"nywhere on the
globe to anyone" is a tall order - I think it more
likely that 80% of the bandwidth will be with 20% of
the population. – Jonathan Zittrain,
co-founder and director, Berkman Center for the
Internet and Society, Harvard University, and a top
forum administrator for CompuServe
hile we think of a
portable radio with batteries as possibly the lowest
cost medium, there are a lot of people who cannot
afford this, or, as in Uganda, men take the batteries
so their wives cannot use the radio (reflect-action.org
is he source). I also worry about the problem of net
neutrality balkanizing the U.S. Internet, the walled
gardens of the telco mobile services, and of course the
Chinese setting up their own domains. However, in spite
of these barriers more people will be using the
internet on a global basis, but I can't forecast
the percentage. – Steve Cisler, former senior
library scientist for Apple, founder of the Association
for Community Networking, now working on public-access
projects in Guatemala, Ecuador and Uganda; internet
user since 1989
he network might not be perfect, but it
will certainly be widespread. We already have a
telephone network which reaches all over the world, and
worldwide access to GPS. So it's not too much of a
stretch to extend this to wireless. Though there may be
artificial barriers at the country level, e.g. China
may not interoperate for political reasons, even if it
could at a technical level. – Seth
Finkelstein, consulting programmer; internet user since
1982
orldwide
interoperability and that wireless will likely be free,
at least in some form, to everyone. I don't
understand what authentication and billing are doing in
that sentence. I think it's perfectly plausible
that identifying people reliably is impossible, full
stop. As to billing - what if it turns out that the
marginal cost of information and knowledge-goods is too
cheap to meter? Do we need billing? Couldn't we
have blanket licenses, instead? – Cory
Doctorow, self-employed journalist, blogger, co-editor
of Boing Boing; born in Canada and now based in London;
EFF Fellow; internet user since 1987
ew networks will be built with more
controllable gateways allowing governments and
corporations greater control over access the flow of
information. Governments will use the excuse of greater
security and exert control over their citizens.
Corporations will claim protection from intellectual
property theft and "hacking" to prevent the
poor or disenfranchised from freely exchanging
information. – Scott Moore, online community
manager, Helen and Charles Schwab Foundation; internet
user since 1991
commercial network will operate tied to individuals
credit ratings in the developed world: this means the
majority of people will be able to access a seamless,
always-on, high-speed network which operates by
verifying their ID. However their will be a low-income
marginalised population in these countries who will
only have access to limited services and have to buy
into the network at higher rates, in the same way
people with poor credit ratings cannot get monthly
mobile phone contracts but pay higher pay-as-you-go
charges. More of the world will be connected, but there
will be still be black spots in less-developed
countries (e.g. sub-Saharan Africa) and
government-limited access in less democratic states.
– Mark Gaved, The Open University, UK;
internet user since 1987
he global economic system is so deeply
rooted in the notion of capital exploitation for profit
that whatever the technical advances that may lead to
interoperability, there will be greater tendencies for
the technology to be used in a "fragmented"
manner to secure corporate profit. Furthermore,
fundamental development issues (health, education,
basic amenities) will restrict the capacity of many
people to access networks. – Matthew Allen,
associate professor of internet studies at Curtin
University, Australia; internet user since
1992
"erfected" and "anyone
anywhere" are aggressively ambitious terms and
thus the forecast is of a panglossian nirvana that will
never happen. But if you had lowered your sights a bit
and toned down the optimism, I would have voted yes. My
forecast is that we will see neither nirvana nor
meltdown, but we will do a nice job of muddling
through. In the end, the network will advance
dramatically with breathtaking effect on our lives, but
we won't notice because our expectations will rise
even faster. – Paul Saffo, director,
Institute for the Future; Internet user since
1978
his will be true for many people, but
not for everyone. – Esther Dyson, editor
Release 1.0, investor and adviser to start-ups;
internet user since 1985
hile costs will come down and
accessibility will increase, barriers of literacy -
both with written language and technology - will become
the greatest barriers to access for "anyone
anywhere." – Mike Kent, professor of
social policy, Murdoch University; internet user since
1994
significant percentage of the global population lacks
food, water, sanitation, electrical service and the
like. Smooth data flow? Who cares? – Edward
Lee Lamoureux, professor at Bradley University;
internet user since 1986
doubt that we will achieve perfection by
2020, if ever. The technology may exist to improve
things greatly, but there will still be economic
barriers. Low-cost (even extremely low-cost)
communications technology is still something that will
have to be balanced against costs for food, shelter,
and other basic necessities. – Scott
Hollenbeck, director of technology, VeriSign; IETF
director; internet user since 1988
eal interoperability will be contingent
on replacing our bias for competition with one for
collaboration. Until then, economics do not permit
universal networking capability. – Douglas
Rushkoff, author and professor at New York University;
internet user since 1985
obile wireless communications will also
be available at an extremely high cost (and all points
in between). It will do you no good to have cheap
wireless access if you can't live with less than
ten gigabits to the desktop. – Fred Hapgood,
author and consultant; internet user since
1981
he infrastructure for low-cost
communications will be in place. Consumer products,
particularly electronics, will be very cheap. But there
will be widespread net "brown outs," and
gossip and advertising will overwhelm news and public
debate. – Marc Rotenberg, executive director
Electronic Privacy Information Center; internet user
since 1978
he advances in wireless technologies are
pretty much a natural consequence of Moore's law.
Better computers means more advanced signal processing,
and the possibility to harness higher frequencies. More
frequencies means an abundant "primary
resource", thus natural competition increasing
service availability and driving down prices. –
Christian Huitema, longtime Internet Society
leader, pioneering internet engineer
echnology will make access near global,
yet economics will continue to create and even enhance
a digital divide. Given that formal and informal
learning is enhanced through the Internet, especially
broadband, we will see those with access gain even more
advantage in knowledge, and the returns to such
knowledge; while the low-income and/or rural will fall
further beyond. – Ed Lyell, pioneer in issues
regarding internet and education, professor at Adams
State College; internet user since 1965
hree factors will impede the growth of
interoperable networking: political resistance within
some countries where elements wish to reduce citizen
access; legal/economic issues that cause
interoperability and access restrictions in the name of
copyright protection, or protection of the underlying
ISP's economic interests; and difficulties with
authentication and traceback needed to provide access
while also preventing fraud and identity theft. –
Eugene Spafford, professor and executive director
for Purdue University's CERIAS (the Center for
Education and Research in Information Assurance and
Security – a web-based incident-response
database); internet user since 1980
here will undoubtedly
be "holes" in network coverage even by 2020,
in remote parts of the world. In parts of interior
Africa or Asia, for example, wireless coverage is
likely to remain expensive and spotty, if available at
all. – Gary Chapman, director, The 21st
Century Project, LBJ School of Public Affairs at the
University of Texas - Austin, internet user since
1982
he stride of development has been very
evident in the time I have been working on the net and
related technologies. There is no reason to expect it
to slow down but availability will still be a major
issue for billions of people. More people will have
access but for those who do not the digital divide will
grow and they will be left lagging increasingly behind.
Some of the reasons will be infrastructure but most
will be political restrictions. Centers of power are
shifting and transfer of information will be hampered
to try to maintain stability. – Amos
Davidowitz, director of education, training and special
programs for Institute of World Affairs, Association
for Progressive Education; internet user since
1994
obile wireless communications on the GSM
platform will be the universal tool of engagement; even
so communications will still be localized in terms of
networks and content. - Tunji Lardner, CEO for the
West African NGO network wangonet.org; World Bank and
UN consultant; internet user since 1988
ell, "nearly" perfected, and
available to "almost" everyone. –
Reva Basch, consultant for Aubergine Information
Systems; internet user since 1973
es, I think this could easily happen. Of
course, some of the mobile access could be shared
access (a la Grameen Phone) but, even so, I would guess
that most people in the world could get on the network
if they really wanted to by 2020. – Hal
Varian, professor at University of California-Berkeley;
Google; internet user since 1986
t's hard to fit this one into a
Boolean logic, and given a choice I'd select
"by and large." Countries where mobile
networks are broadly available today and most of those
in which that is less the case will likely fit the
definition. However, barring a revolution in wireless
technology (that would basically flood the entire
planet with wireless access) I'm afraid that
countries at the poorer end of the spectrum in which
most people today have yet to make their first phone
call, while they will see improvements in their network
infrastructure, will be nowhere near pervasiveness.
2020 is after all only 15 years away, and poverty today
has not improved all that much compared to what it was
15 years ago. – Robin Berjon, W3C and Expway;
internet user since 1996
t
least 30% of the world's population will continue
to have no or extremely scarce/difficult access, due to
scarcity of close-by services and lack of know-how to
exploit the connectivity available. Where there is a
network it will indeed be of moderate or low cost and
operate smoothly. Security, in contrast, will continue
to be a concern at least at "Layer 8" level.
– Alejandro Pisanty, CIO for UNAM (National
University of Mexico), on ICANN's board of
directors and active in ISOC; internet user since
1977
agree that by 2020 a global network will thrive.
However, market conditions may require that the charged
cost will still be high for the poor in the world.
– V.K. Wong, University of Michigan; internet
user since 1981
etwork interoperability is only a
question of connecting the missing dots to much already
existing technology. The world today is already
demanding this and that demand and the very use of the
technology is creating a forward synergy that will
cause it to happen. This will evolve as providers of
the integrated services needed to make it happen
discover that there is a far greater potential for
product and economic growth by working across platforms
to cooperate rather than complicate. – Tom
Snook, CTO, New World Symphony, internet user since
1967
his statement reflects a continuation of
the technology and interoperability development and
cost declines already underway and evident. There are
numerous examples within the communications industry
that serve as an example, but consider that the per-bit
cost of optical transport equipment has fallen by over
90% versus only a few years ago. – Jim
Archuleta, senior manager, government solutions, Ciena
Corporation; internet user since 1989
wouldn't say "perfected," and I don't
know that it will be anywhere on the globe, but I
mostly agree we'll see it be much more cheaper and
accessible. - Danny Sullivan, editor-in-chief,
SearchEngineWatch.com; internet user since
1994
lobal political pressures from some
governments will continue to prevent total, open access
to some of the constituents within geographical areas.
There will be fewer third-world countries, but the ones
that continue to exist will receive help from other
countries as they build out their infrastructure. This
will probably not be totally complete within this time
frame. – Mike McCarty, chief network officer,
Johns Hopkins; internet user since 1992
nywhere? No. Many places? Yes. Some
countries will deliberately prohibit wireless Internet
communications for political reasons. Others will fall
behind (or remain behind) the curve because of business
or government telecom monopolies trying to maintain
their current cash cows at the expense of new services.
Will all these things be technically possible by then?
Sure. But deployment is a different issue. –
John S. Quarterman, president InternetPerils Inc.;
internet user since 1974
he rich get richer and the poor get
poorer, hence in 2020 there may be a thriving, low-cost
network, but those in need of the basics will not be
able to use it. – Alan Levin, chairman for
ISOC South Africa chapter; serves on boards for Future
Perfect Corporation, AfriNIC and .za DNA; internet user
since 1994
he key will be the prosumer model where
people pay or are paid for content at a microbyte level
with some form of economic granularity that ends up a
balancing of costs for production and consumption for
an individual. – Rich Ling, senior researcher
and sociologist, Telenor Research Institute, Oslo,
Norway; internet user since 1984
fter 15 years there still will be some
countries where mobile communication will be
unavailable due to economical or political situation.
Smooth data flow still requires significant
improvements across the countries and network operators
in Europe. It would be silly to expect a better
situation in Africa in 2020 that in Europe today.
– Wladyslaw Majewski, OSI CompuTrain SA, ISOC
Polska; internet user since 1989
ot perfected and not perfectly smooth,
but certainly more, better and deeper today. The
biggest change will come from widespread and reliable
identification in and via mobile devices. The biggest
source of friction will be copyright enforcement and
DRM. There will be much innovation in devices to match
form and function, media and messages. – John
Browning, co-founder of First Tuesday and former writer
for The Economist; internet user since 1989
he technology supporting this kind of
development is proceeding at full speed. In addition,
there is now a political will in a number of countries
to develop electronic medical records (EMR) nationally.
It is only a matter of time when EMRs would be
accessible worldwide. – Rashid Bashshur,
director of telemedicine, University of Michigan;
internet user since 1980
y
2020, network communications providers will have
succeeded in Balkanizing the existing global network,
fracturing it into many smaller walled gardens that
they will leverage to their own financial gain. –
Ross Rader, director of research and innovation,
Tucows Inc.; council member for the Generic Names
Supporting Organization of ICANN, internet user since
1991
live in a so-called "third world" country and
I have seen it happening that way. I remember I
didn't get to know a conventional telephone until I
was 4 or 6, now my 2-year-old already uses the cell
phone and the digital camera of the family like any of
his other toys. It just seems natural to me that by the
time he is my age he will have, what for me is now
"the home of future." Five years ago I had
neither a digital camera nor a PDA, now I can't
live without them! And I crave for wireless anywhere I
go. And more important, is not only my imagination, I
read at least 20 tech sites daily and all news tends to
go that way. The only thing that worries me is the
parallel trend of, for example, conventional carriers
that push to charge for every single thing related to
the use of their connections. – Claudia Cruz,
online editor of elPeriodico, based in
Guatemala
wish this were TRUE. And, I want it to be true, and I
want all of us to work very hard to make it as true as
possible! First of all, we are at 2006, and we need to
address connectivity and affordable access still for
vast numbers of potential users on the planet Earth.
For this vision to be actualized, we need to see a much
broader deployment of fixed wireless, not only mobile
wireless. Mobile wireless is not a panacea. Those
mobile networks have to be connected to broadband
networks, and to networks that can affordably connect
island states, cross national boundaries in regions
that today are still torn by political strife, or war.
Oil ministers in some countries are billionaires, while
their country lacks connectivity within the country
itself for telephony and Internet. I believe we can
make major progress, but to say "perfected,"
is a reach. It should be a goal, and we should
understand that mobile communications is part of a
solution, not a solution. As to "extremely low
rate," that is relative to the country we are
talking about. Multiple technologies should be
considered as part of a global networking solution.
– Marilyn Cade, CEO and principal, ICT
Strategies, MCADE, LLC; also with Information
Technology Association of America and the GNSO of
ICANN; internet user since 1986
don't see the economic motivation to deploy
globally. Substantial parts of Africa and Asia offer
little pull. A good comparison is rural America. Even
with push from FCC & PUCs, rural America does not
have access like the metroplexes. – Willis
Marti, associate director for networking, Texas A&M
University; internet user since 1983
ll aspects of our lives will be
connected electronically so that we can pass personal
data (music, voice, video) between devices and
locations that are important to us. Kids, parents,
teachers, friends, workers, colleagues - all of our
personal associations will be available seamlessly and
ubiquitously. At the same time, all of the traditional
media that we access for information will be just as
readily available. – Michael Gorrell, senior
VP and CIO for EBSCO; internet user since
1994
he internet is a dynamic organism which
is simultaneously evolving at every nexus, the
"computer," the network protocol, the
routers, etc. Complete uniformity and stability are
anathema to the evolution of the network. One
"improvement" in software at a router can
completely disrupt traffic. Fortunately, the systems
will become more robust but there will never be a
"nirvana" or perfect network. –
William Kearns, assistant professor at the
University of South Florida; internet user since
1992
agree that this would be possible but
wonder whether the third world and developing nations
will really have the wireless communication networks
posited by the question. The basics of life must take
precedence over the technology in those nations.
– Jill O'Neill, director of planning
& communication, National Federation of Abstracting
and Information Services; internet user since
1986
etwork neutrality and corporate control
of networks will be major issues. Besides centralized
corporate control, nations - China, India, Germany, and
other countries - will control what their citizens can
see and do online, and in some cases who can get
online. – Nicco Mele, U.S. political internet
strategist
he digital divide will increasingly
apply to communications. You can already see this with
the varying degrees of broadband speed available. In
the UK broadband is concentrated in the wealthier
neighbourhoods. Mobile voice connectivity will be quite
widespread, with 3 billion users worldwide - if not
more. Universal service may apply to broadband by 2020
but this will be in rich countries only and for a basic
degree of connectivity. – Paul Lee, a
respondent who chose not to share further identifying
information
he actual challenge is about billing
issues among countries and currencies as opposed to
technical issues, which have already been sorted out to
date. – Fabio Sampaio, Brazil; internet user
since 1994
am optimistic. The handheld devices used will become
more and more like small computers. I do not believe
that AOL's e-mail stamps will have a future. People
will want such services for free. Older adults and
those with chronic disease will have their vitals
automatically monitored. – Sturle J. Monstad,
University of Bergen, Norway; internet user since
1989
he internet will continue to grow and
more devices (and individuals) will become
interconnected. I'm don't think that all
aspects of this will be "smooth," i.e., the
security issues we are seeing are not easily solved and
will not just "go away." However, significant
progress towards the goal of a global low-cost network
will be achieved. This will be driven by the huge
benefits of connecting people together. –
Thomas Narten, IBM open-internet standards
development; internet user since 1983
seriously doubt interoperability will be perfected. I
think the pace of change will increase and the amount
of interoperability will be jagged. Up and down and up
and down as disruptive tech comes and goes and is
integrated. – Mike Gill, electronics
engineer, National Library of Medicine; internet user
since 1988
don't know if it will be perfected but it will be
as commonplace as plain-old telephone service used to
be. – Christine Haile, chief information
officer, University at Albany, New York; internet user
since 1988
echnology advances in fits and starts,
so yes, networks will be faster and more interoperable,
but issues will still remain and even newer
technologies come to the fore and need standards and
commercial acceptance. And new technologies make
possible new threats and annoyances. Who had an issue
with email spam 10 years ago? – Joe Bishop,
VP education sales, Marratech AB; internet user since
1994
t
is merely a case of observing how other mass
communications media developed over the twentieth
century: initially confined to the financially
well-off, and imitating earlier media before finding
their own identity, their own language of expression,
and their appropriate niches in the socio-economic and
cultural fabric of society … and just as cinema
did not totally replace theatre, nor did television
replace cinema, so electronic networks will never
entirely substitute newspapers on paper, telephones or
conventional mail … there will simply be more
options available … nostalgic people writing
hand-written letters, refusing to leave messages on
electronic secretaries, and in general doing everything
possible to slow life down - "slow food,"
narrow-band communication, etc. Just like modern
buildings stand alongside ancient ones in Japan and
other places, advanced networks in 2020 will have to
share space with those deliberately choosing slower,
simpler means of communication, NOT as a means of
protest, mind you, but as a form of savouring
experiences. Remember? Somewhere or other T.S. Eliot
said something like: "I had the experience, but I
forget its significance." Thoughtful people in
2020 will probably use high-speed networks for their
everyday communications, but surely will use
handwritten and snail-mail-delivered wedding
invitations or tasteful thank-you notes for
especially-meaningful communications. –
Fredric M. Litto, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil;
internet user since 1993
his may seem utopian but with due
diligence and involvement from an active Internet
Community of Users and NFP's it is a possibility
that we should aim for. – Cheryl Langdon-Orr,
independent internet business operator and director for
ISOC-Australia; internet user since 1977
agree with this statement to some extent. The issue
governing whether this happens completely and really
"worldwide" will depend on the various
telecom carriers and regulators around the world taking
the necessary steps to effectively relinquishing
control of their in-country networks. This may not be
completely practical in developing countries as it will
severely impact the revenue model of the incumbent
carrier which is typically government-owned. For the
"developed" world, this prediction is indeed
a reality we may end up experiencing. –
Rajnesh J. Singh, PATARA Communications &
Electronics Ltd., Avon Group, GNR Consulting, ISOC
Pacific Islands; internet user since 1993
lthough the potential surely exists to
create a global, low-cost network in the next 15 years,
the real question is whether or not the systemic
conditions promote that behavior. I disagree with this
outcome because I believe that the current dominant
economic and political systems promote monopoly (or
oligopoly) behavior and seek to destroy attempts to
provide universal access to benefits of the marketplace
while there still may be an extra buck to be made on
the market. 15 years is too short a time for this to be
overcome without very progressive, broad-based and
multi-level political reform and shift in power
structures. What will probably be more likely are
Internet citizens of a "sub-class" (from the
perspective of the current network dominant forces),
who will have access and abilities, though perhaps
through lower-powered infrastructure. As a response, I
predict that current dominant market forces will
further alienate themselves from "open and
accessible" by creating more proprietary and
limited ways of interacting online, continuing their
ability to feed on the technology fears and ignorance
of some people. – Christopher Johnson, CEO
for ifPeople, Inspiring Futures; internet user since
1995
arts of this statement ring true, that a
global network will be implemented that allows
connectivity any time, anywhere. However, the prices
will remain high enough that only citizens of well-off
countries will be able to benefit from this
connectivity. Attempts will be made to bring this
connectivity to people traditionally without this
access, but it will have limited success because of the
many other aspects needed to make communications and
computing work - access to computing devices, reliable
electricity, and training/language issues.
Interoperability will not be "perfected," as
new innovations stand to make previous network
incarnations obsolete. – Philip Joung,
Spirent Communications; internet user since
1989
on-global communication would be an
exception. Anyone who expected the airplane to fly just
to and from Kitty Hawk, NC, only had modified vision.
– Stan Felder, president and CEO, Vibrance
Associates, LLC; internet user since 1985
erfection will not be achieved, but I
fully expect high-speed optical links through the air,
and software should be more robust. Taxes will have
kicked in by then. – Michael Steele; internet
user since 1978
hile it is probably technically feasible
to provide the backbone capacity and local wireless
access to achieve this goal, too many incidental
barriers exist. There's the question of whether the
world economy will support it (I expect disruptions),
whether international political affairs will be healthy
enough to permit it, and whether the designers of the
network can fend off attacks. – Andy Oram,
editor for O"Reilly Media; internet user since
1983
ow cost indeed! For all intents and
purposes, the network will be free. However, people
will subscribe, for a monthly fee, which will provide
virtually all sorts of services including all
telephone, television, music, radio, games,
entertainment, Internet, etc. Advertisement will play a
large role in allowing this low cost service, but
subscribers will do significant purchasing through this
medium as well. – Don Heath, board member,
iPool, Brilliant Cities Inc., Diversified Software,
Alcatel, Foretec; internet user since 1988
hat we are referring to as
"worldwide" will, however, mean a large - but
not absolutely comprehensive - part of the world. The
same occurs now when we say "electricity is
available worldwide." – Suely Fragoso,
professor, Unisinos, Brazil; internet user since
1994
"xtremely
low cost" is relevant. What is small to those in
the developed world is expensive to non-elites in the
rest of the world. – Barry Wellman, professor
and director of NetLab at University of Toronto,
Canada; internet user since 1976
hile network interoperability may be
perfected at a technological level, it is unlikely to
lead to smooth data flow, authentication and billing
because it is to th advantage of organizations that
make money off ot these things to try and maintain
monopolies. Likewise, providing wireless communications
still requires building infrastructure, and it
isn't clear that there will be sufficient funding
to develop those networks in all parts of the world, or
that satellite technology would come down enough in
cost to meet the low-cost scenario. Launching
satellites and building infrastructure costs money the
third world doesn't have - and private companies
work for profit. – Lisa Kamm, has worked in
information architecture since 1995 at organizations
including IBM, Agency.com and the ACLU; internet user
since 1987
lthough the network will be widespread,
there will still be pockets of poverty where access to
the equipment, energy, and knowledge will be limited. A
ubiquitous network means ubiquitous electricity,
computer equipment, and global literacy. That's a
tall order. – Karen Coyle, information
professional and librarian; internet user since
1983
here will probably still be segments of
the world that will deliberately obstruct true,
unfettered interoperability for purposes of controlling
the flow of information (e.g. China). – Jim
Huggins, associate professor of computer science,
Kettering University; internet user since
1989
here will be a global network but have
less confidence that it will be low cost, given that
access will often be in for-profit hands. I expect
consolidation of companies providing access and a
correlative increase in prices. – David
Elesh, associate professor of sociology at Temple
University; internet user since 1983
he real question is what kind of
wireless. It seems increasingly inevitable that we will
be moving to pricing structures that will require a
premium for higher bandwidth. So, ubiquity, but not at
speed. – Alex Halavais, assistant professor,
State University of New York-Buffalo; internet user
since 1984
doubt the necessary investments will be made in many
Africa's countries. I suspect commercial interests
will continue to compete for dominance and that we will
still have different standards (for example, the
European and U.S. global positioning systems) Just
trying to use my mobile in different countries of the
Caucasus and Eastern Europe convinces me we have
significant challenges. – Leigh Estabrook,
professor, University of Illinois; internet user since
1978
doubt the issues surrounding proprietary
standards and protocols will exist so long as they
provide a perceived economic advantage. I doubt a
single mobile data network will operate in Nigeria,
East Timor, and Tasmania. In many cases, I expect it
will be on the client side (tri-mode phone? Try
oct-mode or duodeca-mode) that many of these issues
will be addressed, and that many of these solutions
will be hacks that try to integrate disparate systems
underneath. – Michael Cannella, IT manager
for Volunteers of America-Michigan; internet user since
1991
he technical and social conditions for
this will most likely exist (and probably long before
2020). However, my hesitation is that I do not see a
commitment from national legislatures and from
international bodies to control commercial exploitation
of networks. For your prediction to come true, global
regulation of networks that privileges public good over
commercial reward must occur. – Andy
Williamson, managing director for Wairua Consulting
Limited, New Zealand; internet user since
1990
t
will be recognized by all that the velocity of
knowledge, like the economic velocity of money will
enrich everyone. – Charles Hendricksen,
research collaboration architect for Cedar
Collaboration; internet user since 1968
o
build a system like that you need not only world wide
technical solutions delivered by idealistic and
perfectly honest providers, you also need world peace,
to end famine and free education for all. That is too
tough to deliver in 14 years. – Torill
Mortensen, associate professor, Volda University
College, Norway; internet user since 1991
'd be extremely surprised
(pleasantly, of course), if there were universal access
in the world's 50 poorest countries by 2020.
– Peter Levine, director of CIRCLE,
University of Maryland; internet user since
1993
hen you say "anyone anywhere in the
globe," you infer that all Internet users will
have equal access. That isn't true now, why would
we believe that it would be any more the case down the
road. There are global disparities in income,
geography, infrastructure, etc. that will continue to
remain unaddressed. – Christine Ogan,
professor, University of Indiana School of
Journalism
here will still be a global internet,
but intranets (localised networks) will be the core
hubs for business and universities, keen to keep their
traffic in local bubbles, away from litigation and
ever-increasing surveillance. The internet at large
will still be the sharepoint, but email and other
protocols will be routinely encrypted and prying eyes
will have a much harder time in an era of informatic
paranoia. – Tama Leaver, lecturer in digital
communication, University of Western
Australia
ith all the research in ubiquitous
computing and ambient intelligence it is very likely
that RFID technology, systems interoperability,
ubiquitous information and communication applications,
and wireless systems will become part of our everyday
lives. I wonder whether they will be available for
anyone (since differences between first world and third
world countries will not be solved within 15 years),
but do believe they will be available to large groups
of people worldwide. – B. van den Berg,
faculty of philosophy at Erasmus University, Rotterdam,
The Netherlands; internet user since 1993
ural communities in developing nations
will still lag substantially behind urban dwelling,
higher income individuals globally. This is one of the
most important gaps that needs to be addressed. –
Kathleen Pierz, managing partner, The Pierz Group;
internet user since 1985
agree with parts of this statement, but not all of it.
For instance, I think authentication will be improved,
but there will always be sophisticated criminals who
can "crack" the system for illicit reasons.
Additionally, I doubt that mobile wireless
communications will be available anywhere on the globe
at low cost. There will still be problems in
mountainous areas, especially where population density
is low. Some regions of the world with low population
density will still have limited wireless access (i.e.
rainforests of Borneo, Gobi Desert) and it will still
be expensive to provide wireless communications over
the ocean. – Michael S. Cann Jr., CEO of
Affinio Corporation; internet user since
1992
nteroperability won't be perfected,
but attempts to regulate the network according to
tecos" desire to implement QOS at the network
layer will have failed because of international
pressure. – Kevin Schlag, director of web
development and IT for Western Governor's
University, BYU-Hawaii; internet user since
1993
ith the current rhythm it gives
development and technological innovation is very
possible that this is this way. Alone it is necessary
to see, for example, the installation of nets WiFi in
the area rural of Peru that helps the Peruvian peasants
to negotiate its crop. It is a remote and not well
communicated area but that thanks to the new
technologies it is very competitive inside the domestic
economy. - Sabino M. Rodriguez, MC&S; internet
user since 1994
hile I think it will be better,
"perfect" is a pretty strong word. I
wouldn't underestimate the tenacity of people who
make money from proprietary networks to hang on to
them. – Cleo Parker, senior manager BBDO;
internet user since 1993
hile we will have worldwide network
interoperability, we will continue to be plagued by
badly or inadequately written and documented software
for most other applications. A fundamentalist movement
toward rigorously designed, open-source applications
might occur if we acknowledge that the lack
interoperability of these programs results in a huge
drain on productivity. On the other hand, we may just
continue to muddle along. – Sam Punnett,
president, FAD research; internet user since
1988
ommoditization of telecommunications
services, open standards for documents and server
operations, and the expectations of access to the
Internet and its successors will force businesses,
universities, and governments to make this come to
pass. While there will be a global, low-cost network,
there will also be numerous large, but closed networks
attached to the global network. These networks will use
their own domain name resolution servers. Both
governments working with regional partners and
multinational companies in cooperation with each other
will develop their own alternative networks to satisfy
security and political concerns. – Sean Mead,
consultant for Interbrand Analytics, Design Forum, Mead
Mead & Clark and other companies; internet user
since 1989
he technology may be available but the
business interests that drive technology will not be in
a position to allow a perfected scenario by 2020.
– Nan Dawkins, co-founders of RedBoots
Consulting; internet user since 1997
The greatest threat to this
scenario is the increasing tendency of the telecom
giants to "privatize" the Internet by
applying artificial & proprietary cost and access
structures in an attempt to drive greater corporate
profits. There will never be enough competition in
broadband access in the U.S. – Brent
Crossland, internet user since 1992
lobal inequities are still going to
exist in 2020. It is too short a window for a utopian
ideal of universal access and use over the globe. By
2020 I believe that high-income users in large cities
in rich countries will be able to experience the world
this way. The downside is they may assume that's
the case for everyone and fail to consider the way this
draws more lines between haves and have-nots. What is
"low cost" to some is high cost to others. -
Caroline Haythornthwaite, associate professor,
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; internet
user since 1996
aranoia about, spam, worms, Trojans and
viruses has caused people to look at the impact the
Internet is affecting their lives. Allowing more
gateways are viewed as intrusive and will be rejected.
– W. Reid Cornwell, director of The Center
for Internet Research; internet user since
1974
lready the cost of Internet access, and
broadband access is decreasing. In other countries
governments are working to provide low cost computers
and Internet access (India is one example). This lowers
the barrier to get online. Interoperability is a
necessity, though I'm not sure there will be a time
when everything runs entirely smoothly. –
Enid Burns, editor at ClickZ.com; internet user
since 1994
opyright and other turf wars such as
political censorship will lead to a fractured global
information infrastructure. – Richard Forno,
principal consultant, KRvW Associates, Infowarrior.Org;
CMU Software Engineering Institute; internet user since
1992
ost people will be able to afford some
sort of handheld apparatus for communication but the
cost of accessing the network will be high in some
remote parts of the globe. I live in part of the world
that has some of the highest jetstream costs in the
world and that is unlikely to change in remote island
states, compared to large continental nations. –
Barbara Craig, Victoria University; internet user
since 1993
t
is hard to speculate on this issue, since technology
does not exist in a vacuum but is dependent on or
rather operates in its social, cultural, and political
context. What I think is reasonable to say is that
interoperability will be perfected in those parts of
the world that will belong to the same political and
economic context. This refers both to formal political
and economic integrations or neo-colonial conditions
which I expect to continue to develop globally. But the
growth and advancement of technology will doubtlessly
also play a part in a form these relations will take
place. – Mirko Petric, University of Zadar,
Croatia; internet user since 1996
id workers report today that people in
remote African villages know the words to the latest
rap songs within days of release. This hunger for what
is hot will drive following technologies like mobile,
facilitated by satellite. High-cost sat-nets will be
subsidized by the commercial lines of interest that
promote all kinds of brand expansion. Non-profits also
will use these technologies to provide services and
support as well as to help bridge divides such as the
Islamic and Judeo-Christian worlds. The Rockefeller
Brothers Foundation, to name one, is working on the
first stages of this now. – Michael Reilly,
GLOBALWRITERS, Baronet Media LLC, Hally Enterprises,
Inc., State University of NY at Stony Brook, Global
Public Affairs Institute; internet user since
1972
hile interoperability may be perfected,
the smooth data flow will not. Content providers will
regulate/control/charge for the use of or access to
their materials. It will require the establishment of a
trusted "digital identity" - a key to the
source of information. – Todd Costigan,
National Association of Realtors; internet user since,
1985
nternet access will increase in cost by
2020 as the use of video streaming, online games,
email, wireless networks, and high-speed access
increases and overloads network servers and the
Internet network itself. Access to and data
transmission through the Internet is a business. By
2020 home users with high-speed access will be charged
for bandwidth used, just like electricity or other
utilities. – Ted Summerfield, president,
Punzhu.com; internet user since 1979
he economic benefits of a connected
populace will outweigh other factors. – Janet
Salmon, president, Vision2Lead Inc.; internet user
since 1985
he technical achievements will come
about, but they will only be "low cost" to
some people (i.e., those from affluent countries). Due
to an enduring wealth gap, many people in developing
countries will not be able to afford these services and
technical accomplishments. – Ben Detenber,
associate professor, Nanyang Technological
University
hahahahahah! As this has not happened
when there was a single controlling force, before 1991
privatisation, how should it happen now? As to the
mobile wireless, do we live on the same planet? Are you
sure? – Wainer Lusoli, University of Chester;
internet user since 1994
do believe that there will be a global
low cost network by the year 2020, if not before. But I
think it will also be at least a two-tiered system,
maintaining the class divide. – Michael
Dahan, professor, Sapir Academic College, Israel;
Digital Jerusalem; internet user since 1989
disagree that it will be at low cost. I
believe the relation between living and its respective
cost will be almost the same in 2020 as it is today
(2006). – Ivair Bigaran, Global Messenger
Courier do Brasil, American Box Serviço Int'l S/C
Ltda.; internet user since 1994
hile we are moving towards virtually
ubiquitous low cost wireless communications, we
won't get there by 2020 and there will be large
populations of poor and disenfranchised groups to which
the benefits of technology will not be available.
– Benjamin Ben-Baruch, senior market
intelligence consultant and applied sociologist,
Aquent, General Motors, Eastern Michigan University;
internet user since 1980
he general use of the Internet will
expand horizontally to include new media (TV, Voice
etc.) and that fees that we currently pay for these
services will shift to the Internet. – Paul
Craven, director of enterprise communications, U.S.
Department of Labor; internet user since
1993
ith growing data-handling capacity,
networking costs shall be low. The incremental
efficiency in hardware and software tech shall propel
greater data movement across the inhabited universe.
– Alik Khanna, Smart Analyst Inc., India;
internet user since 1996
ompanies will cling to old business
models, and attempt to extend their life by influencing
lawmakers to pass laws that hinder competition. Also,
there will still be poor nations. – Brian T.
Nakamoto, Everyone.net; internet user since
1990
nitiatives such as Google WiFi and open
communal networks will launch a new phase of
connectivity. Billing standards such as PayPal and
payment enabled 3G phones will complement credit cards
to allow instant micropayments. – Steffan
Heuer, U.S. correspondent, brand eins
Wirtschaftsmagazin; internet user since
1994
disagree primarily about the scenarios
presumptions about politics and structure. Sure, the
technological potential will be there – we're
rather close - but the lack of a global society and the
dominant capitalistic logic in the existing power
structures work against smooth, low-cost availability
for anyone. – Stine Gotved, cultural
sociologist, University of Copenhagen
rom a Western perspective I guess the
"availability everywhere at an extremely low
cost" prediction sounds possible and very
inclusive. In practice, that which is supposed to be
inclusive and cost very little is usually quite
exclusive and costs a lot (not just financially, but
culturally and socially) to those in other parts of the
world. The prediction seems a little like "Silicon
Valley guilt-ridden idealism," but as I know very
little about the actual technology and it's future
direction, this answer is based solely on the failure
of previous technological claims to meet the then
grandiose predictions to reduce the digital divide. But
for countries that currently have poor basic
telecommunications infrastructure, the idea of a
"low-cost" global network seems a little
far-fetched - there will have to be great cost in
updating/creating the appropriate infrastructure to
allow these nations to participate in the global
network. – Janine van der Kooy, information
management/librarian; internet user since
1997
y 2020 devices for
staying connected to the network will encourage people
to remain "always on" the network. The
low-cost, always-on nature of this network will make it
truly transparent...which means that choosing to remove
yourself, even for brief periods, may carry penalties
that make staying connected a more efficient decision
than "opting off." I would look at the
challenges of removing yourself from the electric grid
in the developed world today as a model for the
challenges of removing yourself from the
"information grid" of 2020...it is possible,
but not a practical decision for the vast majority of
humans who are not concerned with day-to-day
considerations such as food, shelter, and clothing.
– Jeff Hammond, VP Rhea and Kaiser; internet
user since 1992
he use of technology,
in my opinion, will increase in urban centers but a
bigger gap will be created with African countries (no
profit there) and Middle East (religious reasons will
restrict access to information). - Nuno Rodrigues,
4EMESmultimédia, um ovo a cavalo; internet user since
1992
here may be
tiered-access to many of the services, with
restrictions being applied to free services. –
Suzanne Stefanac, author and interactive media
strategist, dispatchesfromblogistan.com; internet user
since 1989
ntil vicious
commercial infighting between competing companies for
customers is sorted out with a clear winner, and major
shifts in governmental positions take place, 100%
interoperability is just a dream. Note also that there
is substantial investment in hardware/software on the
part of consumers. The decade-old WIN95 platform is
still in use. Presence of these legacy systems may also
cause adoption lag. The Asian model is seductive in its
apparent success (Japan/S. Korea/Singapore) but note
these are geographically small countries with
concentrated populations, a high level of
industrialization and the capital available to invest
in infrastructure I do not see this becoming available
to anyone, anywhere, as remote and impoverished areas
are likely to struggle. The model of the success of
cell phones in rural India may yet prove me wrong.
– Cath Stoll, internet user since 1982
am not sure that I
completely agree or disagree with this concept. The
statement might be true, but what we are going to run
into is still the state that we are in due to new
emerging technologies that we are not able to predict
right now. These technologies will always have a
learning curve and a state of disruption until there is
a universal adoption. – Jeff Gores, internet
user since 1994
he network will be
very expensive, and treated as a utility. The Global
Network NOW is a mess; in 2020 the small, local
operator will be a thing of the past. Where old
infrastructure still exists you will find inexpensive,
possibly unreliable connectivity. Interoperability
depends on Microsoft - almost everyone else is! –
Gordon MacDiarmid, lobo.net; internet user since
1988
here will be low-cost,
widespread interoperability that will be widely
available. Education, language, and values will affect
whether and how people make use of this technology.
Both voluntary and involuntary groups will specialize
and separate by technology used, values,
"remembered and selected" demographics, and
for competition and cooperation. In some cases the use
of differing primary technologies will engender quite
different cultures. – Mary Ann Allison,
principal, The Allison Group, LLC; internet user since
1981
he rise of proprietary
internets will continue, and these secure, robust
networks will become the primary means of distributing
entertainment and video. The surprise: The Open Source
movement will become a cultural and political force,
carving out a permanent niche on the free Internet and
WWW. While media corporations will attempt to capture
and control as much market share as they can leverage,
Open Sourcers will survive based on their proven
ability to lead by innovation. Mobile wireless
communications will be an urban utility, but not
something available in all rural areas. –
Daniel Conover, new-media developer, Evening Post
Publishing; internet user since 1994
see no way that in a
real, commercial world wireless communications (mobile
or otherwise) will be available to "anyone
anywhere" at an "extremely low" cost,
assuming any useful definition of "extremely
low." – Walt Dickie, VP and CTO, C&R
Research; internet user since 1992
he current cooperative
internet will be subsumed by large corporate efforts
trying (and succeeding) in controlling the network for
profit, to the benefit of only the privileged. –
Cary Curphy, operations research analyst, U.S.
Army; internet user since 1989
obile wireless
communications will remain expensive. –
Pascal Perin, futurologist, France Telecom;
internet user since 1998
obile wireless
communications may cover the geography consistently.
The issues that may still require surmounting is the
economic viability, social need for the same in the
poorest and furthest regions. The need and potential
needs to be translated into reality. –
Syamant Sandhir, leader in experience design and
implementation, Futurescape; internet user since
1995
y 2020 we'll be
lucky to get 50 percent of the world connected. There
are many more poor countries and poor individuals who
can't afford advanced networking than there are
those who can afford it, even with prices likely to
come down. – Rob Atkinson, director,
Technology and New Economy Project, Progressive Policy
Institute; internet user since 1993
andwidth will continue
to increase, and the cost of sharing it will decrease
dramatically over the next decade giving rise to more
free wireless initiatives like the one in Portland
Oregon. As a result more and more power will shift
toward communities that value open standards and
cooperation, as opposed to closed networks designed to
keep pricing power in the hands of large telecoms. That
said, certain governments - possibly China, the newly
independent states of the former Soviet Union, the more
conservative Arab countries - will step up their
efforts to create a segregated Internet in an effort to
protect their culture and political systems. –
Kerry Kelley, VP product marketing, SnapNames.com;
internet user since 1986
he near perfection of
technology is an utopist dream that has been with since
the beginning of cultural history. But patching,
tinkered ad hoc solutions, regional/national/brand
interests and simple human egoism in general is the
order of technology and design. This will never change,
unless suppressed by some kind of political regime that
takes control in order to harmonize technology,
protocols and formats by brute force. Does anybody want
that in order to attain compatibility and smooth
operation (even if possible)? No, of course not.
Besides the fact that our intellectual capacities do
not leave _perfect technology_ only a matter of firm
decisions, such a political force would be less prone
to admit shortcomings of its choices and refuse to
overrule old decisions. Just like any other
totalitarian regime. Sure, a lot of technological
issues will probably improve in terms of dissemination
of services and flexibility of transactions; others
will become worse but many will remain unchanged.
– Mikkel Holm Sørensen, software and
intelligence manager, Actics Ltd.; internet user since
1997
hile I do believe that
smooth data flow at low prices will be achieved by
2020, I don't think that authentication and billing
problems will be solved, nor that mobile wireless
communications will be available to anyone, anywhere,
at low price. The security problems of creating
universal, reliable authentication and billing
processes, now that it seems that quantum cryptography
and other promises of the future are not the heaven we
expected them to be, are only a part of what we have to
face. Internet is consistently being regulated by non
neutral parts, specifically estates and supranational
organizations with agendas of their own, and often
contradictory with both the spirit and the needs of
Internet culture (being data protection and domain
regulations just two examples). It is much more than
what it ever was in the short history of the net, a
matter of estate policies. Thus it seems that the
process will not be a pleasant, easy transition from
the current flawed models. As to wireless technology,
only liberating broadcasting air that would be
possible, and then the problem of ISPs and estate
policies comes up against. For global cheap wireless we
need a different, more open broadcasting regulation,
which we don't have at the moment, and I believe we
won't have due to the current obsession with a
misguided concept of security. – Miguel
Sicart, junior research associate, Information Ethics
Group, Oxford University; internet user since 1997
andwidth barriers have
consistently been removed in the 11 years of the
commercial Internet world. There are no obstructions
and in fact many change agents insuring that this trend
will indeed continue to the point, perhaps well before
2020 that we will in fact see a completely ubiquitous
affordable network pipeline. – Kevin McFall,
director, Online Products & Affiliate Programs,
Tribune Media Services, NextCast Media; internet user
since 1984
here will still be
people without access to this "perfected"
platform. The cost will be nominal except to those who
are in extreme poverty, or extreme ignorance. The
Internet will not solve those issues. –
Gwynne Kostin, director of Web communications, U.S.
Homeland Security; internet user since 1993
nteroperability itself
will never be perfected since corporate alliances and
other proprietary schemes will sector off some Internet
services. The government(s) may be the biggest users of
such "private" approaches. – Gary
Arlen, president, Arlen Communications Inc., The Alwyn
Group LLC; internet user since 1982
nteroperability will
only occur when those who benefit from the networks
believe their value proposition will increase due to
interoperability and low cost access. I still believe
access providers and content providers will try to hold
on to control in order to gain value. – Jeff
Corman, government policy analyst, Industry Canada,
Government of Canada; internet user since 1995
e're seeing the
approach taken by "walled gardens" (like the
Well) coming back into play as security threats (and
perceived security threats) continue to evolve. I think
2020 is too soon to expect any particularly evened out
access of this kind even in the developed world, let
alone worldwide. Fits and starts in many places,
pockets of utopian technology access, yes; perfect
worldwide mobile access, cheaply, for all, not so much.
– Caitlin Burke, internet user since
1992
ave corporations ever
allowed anything to get nearly free? Will Taliban-like
governments, sprouting everywhere, permit open access,
smooth data flow? Will the disruptions of the Second
Great Depression, caused by any number of near
catastrophes that loom - water and fuel shortages,
wealth imbalance, bankrupt empire collapse, nuclear
bombs, weather gone berserk - open the world to
interoperability and smooth, flat-earth flow; or will
disaster build walls of non-communication, isolation,
and Dark Ages city and nation states? – Scott
Keeney, librarian, Albany Public Library; internet user
since 1995
here will be some
world regions where reality will not be like mentioned
on the statement. – Georg Dutschke,
Universida Sevilla, Forum Criança, Cortefino; internet
user since 1996
any cultures on earth
live outside the potential of a
technologically-assisted life style. People who develop
these dreams lack real-world experience and
perspective. There is no wisdom in their prediction. In
an automated world, increasingly, people will spend
time undoing automatic transactions. Overall, an
automated world lacks a moral compass. If people in
Kansas understand this - they are the farthest away
from either coast in this example, and cannot
participate in an automated world to the levels enjoyed
by those who live on both coasts - people in more
established and remote cultures have no reason to
participate in an automated culture. Broad acceptance
of automation has always lagged behind the enthusiasm
of early adopters. Implementing the infrastructure in
remote cultures lacks a viable business purpose, and
why else would the infrastructure be implemented.
– Elle Tracy, president and e-strategies
consultant, The Results Group; internet user since
1993
he primary winner is
this is the global supply chain. As goods and services
become global commodities, tracking and managing those
assets on a global level will be vital to every link in
the procurement and delivery chain. – Alix L.
Paultre, executive editor, Hearst Business Media,
Smartalix.com, Zep Tepi Publishing; internet user since
1996
ith the widespread use
of mobile phone technology, the above scenario seems
almost certain. Every less developed country I have
visited features personal mobile phone use by some of
the most humbly employed people. I have seen field
workers with phones. Some of this use is status based
but much of it seems to be people scrambling to make
connections/deals for more income. – Anthony
Hurst, teacher at the American Cooperative School of
Tunis; internet user since 1990
s a percent of
household income data communications including phone,
TV and internet will continue to grow in cost. –
Rachel Thompson, District of Columbia Advisory
Neighborhood Commissioner; internet user since
1986
n all honesty when a
person needs to worry about warring tribes, ethnic and
religious conflict Web access is and should be a low
priority. – Doug Olenick, TWICE Magazine;
internet user since 1996
ultural disparities
will always interfere with true global network
interoperability, and it would be naive to assume
sufficient technological acumen will exist along with
the necessary disposable income to assure global access
to wireless communication. – Al Amersdorfer,
president and CEO, Automotive Internet Technologies;
internet user since 1985
conomies of scale make
this possible, and will dramatically increase in the
years to come. The "tipping point" in many
countries has already been reached; as networks move to
other countries they, too, will reach and exceed that
point. – Jeffrey Branzburg, educational
consultant for National Urban Alliance, Center for
Applied Technologies in Education and other groups;
internet user since 1997
y 2002 there will
still be many blind spots on this planet, many areas
ill covered with low capacity networks and more
importantly still a majority of people with no
resources nor education that permit use of ICT. The
"extremely" low cost will still be excessive
for many people. – Michel Menou, professor
and information-science researcher; born in France, he
has worked in nearly 80 nations; internet user since
1992
here will always be
" a better way" and, as such, competing
groups will be creating the "casette and
8-track" players. The competition will get to the
point where one takes market share and becomes the new
standard. There are too many bureaucratic agencies and
the world governments that will work too slow at
resolving differences. – Terry Ulaszewski,
publisher, Long Beach Live Community News; internet
user since 1989
have two reasons for
disagreeing with the proposal that worldwide network
interoperability will be perfected by 2020. The first
is that there are too many competing corporations
involved, the majority of which do not see the
interoperability of their products with those of other
corporations as a significant goal. The corporate
interest is directed towards tying customers to their
brand, which is opposed to the interoperability agenda.
This may be overcome in the long term, but not by 2020.
The second reason for disagreement is that of the
existence, or lack thereof, of communications
infrastructure to cover the majority of the world. In
Europe, North America, Japan and maybe Australia and
New Zealand the infrastructure issue is not a problem.
In South America, Africa and Asia there is a huge gap
between the reality and the ideal. – Robin
Lane, educator and philosopher, Universidade Federal do
Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil; internet user since
1990
here is money to be
made from a smooth, global data flow so I suspect it
will happen. As to consequences? I doubt they will be
favorable to a smooth, global flow of compassion or
equality. – Leslie-Jean Thornton, researcher
and educator, Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass
Communication, internet user since 1985
overnment security,
scammers and greedy content aggregators will keep the
internet from developing into an integrated
technological community. – Martin F. Murphy,
IT consultant, City of New York, internet user since
1993
global network will
thrive. However I certainly do not believe it will be
low-cost. It is beyond commercial industry to ignore
such an integral and popular vehicle such as the
Internet and not exploit it. – Rick Gentry,
acquisition coordinator, Greenpeace; internet user
since 1995
hile I think the
technology exists for such a network, I don't
believe politics and business will allow it to work.
The U.S. is a prime example where the expense of cell
phones is far above that of other countries and the
extent of the network is much less. This is primarily
due to the fact that businesses have competing
standards and are unwilling to open their networks up
to subscribers of other networks without charging
considerable roaming fees. In places such as Europe and
Australia there is one common system and it works much
better. I suspect we will have the same issues with a
data network. – Rangi Keen, software
engineer, Centric Software, internet user since
1989
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