The truly successful new information services, some experts say, may go beyond traditional television programming and consumerism. “It’s very easy to envisage a time when video communication will be the most natural way to communicate,” said Nathan Myhrvold, a senior vice president at the Microsoft Corporation, who is in charge of developing the software company’s interactive television business. What will be possible when “video dial tone” is widely available in every American home? For one thing, some industry executives predict, there will be a proliferation of video cameras throughout society, permitting people to dial into the network and peek virtually everywhere.
Predictor: Myhrvold, Nathan
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for the New York Times, technology columnist John Markoff reports on the proposed merger of phone company Bell Atlantic and Tele-Communications Inc., a major cable corporation. Markoff writes: ”More than any of the hundreds of information-age alliances that have been proposed to date, a merger of Bell Atlantic and Tele-Communications clearly outlines the potential of a national data highway … By blending telephone and television networks, Mr. Malone and Raymond Smith, the chairman of Bell Atlantic, may help ignite an explosion of new information services that will go far beyond the conventional ideas of ordering videos on demand and shopping at home, the types of services that have been presumed to be the first commercially viable businesses on the digital information highway. The truly successful new information services, some experts say, may go beyond traditional television programming and consumerism. ‘It’s very easy to envisage a time when video communication will be the most natural way to communicate,’ said Nathan Myhrvold, a senior vice president at the Microsoft Corporation, who is in charge of developing the software company’s interactive television business. What will be possible when ‘video dial tone’ is widely available in every American home? For one thing, some industry executives predict, there will be a proliferation of video cameras throughout society, permitting people to dial into the network and peek virtually everywhere. For example, before leaving for work in the morning, commuters might be able to dial up the camera that is pointing at the freeway on-ramp or at that frequently troublesome overpass to see instantly if there is a traffic jam. Indeed, such cameras scattered along the entire route would make it possible to virtually ‘drive’ to work before leaving home – or stay there, if things look truly grim.”
Biography:Nathan Myhrvold worked at Microsoft Corporation as chief technology officer in the 1990s. Myhrvold was responsible for the Advanced Technology and Research Group, which had a budget of over $2 billion per year. Earlier, he was group vice president of Applications and Content, which included a number of Microsoft divisions, including Desktop Applications, Consumer, Research and Microsoft On Line Systems. (Technology Developer/Administrator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Communication
Subtopic: Video Conferencing
Name of publication: New York Times
Title, headline, chapter name: A Merger of Giants: The Vision; A Phone-Cable Vehicle for the Data Superhighway
Quote Type: Partial quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Section D; Page 1; Column 3: Financial Desk
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney