Experts Weigh in on the Benefits and Harms of Digital Change by 2035 and Examine Potential Impact of AI by 2040
In 2023 experts shared insights in two canvassings: In the first they predicted the best and worst of digital change by 2035; in the second (to be published in 2024), they weighed in on the most likely gains and losses for people and society by 2040, as AI impact accelerates
In 2023, we hosted our 16th and 17th canvassings of experts since the early 2000s. The first report, “Experts Predict the Best and Worst Changes in Digital Life By 2035,” was published in June 2023. The second report “The Impact of Artificial Intelligence by 2040” – an examination of how AI might influence various dimensions of life – was published in February 2024. Each report contains thousands of predictions from hundreds of experts regarding the likely evolution of humans and digital technologies in an age of accelerating change.
Please scroll down the page to find introductory details.
Report 1: ‘Experts Predict the Best and Worst Changes in Digital Life By 2035‘ – Released June 21, 2023
The content for this report was gathered in a canvassing of experts conducted in early 2023 by Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center and Pew Research Center. They were asked to predict the best and worst of digital change by 2035. This report shares thousands of predictions in reply to the following question:
We seek your insights about the future impact of digital change. As you look ahead to 2035, what are the best and most beneficial changes, and what are the most harmful and menacing changes that are likely to occur in digital technology and humans’ use of digital systems? We are particularly interested in your thoughts about how developments in digital technology and humans’ uses of it might improve human-centered development of digital tools and systems; human connections, governance and institutions; human rights; human knowledge; and human health and well-being.
More than a third, 37%, said they were more concerned than excited about the digital change to come by 2035, and 42% said they were equally concerned and excited about what they expected to see as they imagine the next decade-plus; 79% expressed a fairly large degree of worry over how current digital trends might influence daily life in the near future, also saying they do expect significant new benefits due to digital change in the years to come.
Read the report for full details.
Report 2: ‘The Impact of Artificial Intelligence by 2040’ – Released February 29, 2024
In our second canvassing of 2023/2024, the experts were asked to share their opinions about how people’s applications and uses of rapidly advancing AI might influence specific dimensions of life by 2040. The “AI Impact by 2040” report is the first in the “experts” series which Pew Research no longer played a role. The report was published February 29, 2024 on our second site: The Imagining the Digital Future Center (ITDF). The 170-plus page report shares thousands of predictions in reply to the following question:
Considering the likely changes created by the proliferation of AI in individuals’ lives and in society’s social, economic and political systems, how will life have changed by 2040? What stands out as most significant to you? Why? What is most likely to be gained and lost in the next 15 or so years?
Of note: The “AI Impact by 2040” report was the first in the “experts” series that combines a separate national public opinion survey on the same topic along with the typical canvassing of hundreds of technology experts that has been the hallmark of our 48 previous research reports.
This canvassing and accompanying report was also the first in the “experts” series which Pew Research no longer played a role.
Links to our continuing series of reports on experts’ views on the potential future will, in future, only be published on the Imagining the Digital Future site.