I do not perceive an upcoming fountain of commerce over the World Wide Web for a number of reasons. The Internet and computer interactions will not replace classical commercial interactions because the Internet and the World Wide Web are missing an important ingredient salespeople. We techies think, “Oh, wouldn’t it be nice to live in a world without the salesdroids, blah, aren’t they horrible.” However, when somebody needs to buy something, whether it’s 5,000 CD-ROM drives or a Toyota Camry, one expects to be able to talk to and speak with a salesperson who will be there live in front of you, for reasons of trust, commitment, a sense of having a person to help grease the gears of commerce. I don’t think the World Wide Web will ever replace that person.
Predictor: Stoll, Clifford
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 Computerworld article, journalist Lory Zottola Dix, interviewed security expert and author Cliff Stoll about the hype over the Internet. Dix quotes Stoll saying: ”I do not perceive an upcoming fountain of commerce over the World Wide Web for a number of reasons. The Internet and computer interactions will not replace classical commercial interactions because the Internet and the World Wide Web are missing an important ingredient salespeople. We techies think, ‘Oh, wouldn’t it be nice to live in a world without the salesdroids, blah, aren’t they horrible.’ However, when somebody needs to buy something, whether it’s 5,000 CD-ROM drives or a Toyota Camry, one expects to be able to talk to and speak with a salesperson who will be there live in front of you, for reasons of trust, commitment, a sense of having a person to help grease the gears of commerce. I don’t think the World Wide Web will ever replace that person.”
Biography:Clifford Stoll was an astrophysicist who also wrote the influential books “Silicon Snake Oil” (1995) and “The Cuckoo’s Egg.” A long-time network user, Stoll made “Silicon Snake Oil” his platform for finding fault with the Internet hype of the early 1990s. He pointed out the pitfalls of a completely networked society and offered arguments in opposition to the hype. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Economic structures
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Computerworld
Title, headline, chapter name: An Interview with Cliff Stoll; This Security Expert, Network Pioneer and Best-selling Author is Sick and Tired of Internet Hype
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Page 85
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne