Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

Profitability from commercial activity on the Web includes productivity savings, marketing and sales savings, and incremental or new revenue streams. Productivity savings arise from reduction in order and processing costs and more efficient inventory management … Savings result through reduced brochure printing and distribution costs and reductions in order-taking as customers use fill-out forms to prepare their own orders. As control is also effectively transferred to the customer, we speculate that customer satisfaction might actually be increased. Finally, incremental or new revenue streams are available for firms participating in digital commerce, through, for example, online sales, advertising revenues, or information brokering … Corporate training, electronic distribution and maintenance provide additional revenue opportunities for appropriate firms. However, secure mechanisms for transactions are necessary to fully exploit the revenue-generating opportunities of the Web.

Predictor: Hoffman, Donna L.

Prediction, in context:

In the December 1995 issue of the Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, Special Issue on Electronic Commerce, Donna L. Hoffman, Thomas P. Novak, and Patrali Chatterjee propose a structural framework for examining the explosion in commercial activity on the Web. They are with Project 2000: Research Program on Marketing in Computer-Mediated Environments, Owen Graduate School of Management at Vanderbilt University. They write: ÒProfitability from commercial activity on the Web includes productivity savings, marketing and sales savings, and incremental or new revenue streams. Productivity savings arise from reduction in order and processing costs and more efficient inventory management. Increases in productivity on the ÔsoftÕ side through more efficient personnel may also lead to productivity gains. Savings may also be realized from efficiences in the marketing and selling functions. The Web shifts more of these functions to the customer; savings result through reduced brochure printing and distribution costs and reductions in order-taking as customers use fill-out forms to prepare their own orders. As control is also effectively transferred to the customer, we speculate that customer satisfaction might actually be increased. Finally, incremental or new revenue streams are available for firms participating in digital commerce, through, for example, online sales, advertising revenues, or information brokering. Incremental revenues may be achieved for those firms who use the Web to expand into new channels of distribution and new market segments. Corporate training, electronic distribution and maintenance provide additional revenue opportunities for appropriate firms. However, secure mechanisms for transactions are necessary to fully exploit the revenue-generating opportunities of the Web.Ó

Date of prediction: January 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Economic structures

Subtopic: General

Name of publication: Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication

Title, headline, chapter name: Commercial Scenarios for the Web: Opportunities and Challenges

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
www.ascusc.org/jcmc/vol1/issue3/hoffman.doc

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne