The future of computing lies in the development of new systems as radically different from today’s offerings as the original PCs differed from their predecessors. The personal computer may turn out to be like the horseless carriage, whose effect on our expectations was greater than its impact on our lives. PC users daydreamed of electronic cottages and global villages but settled for word processors and spreadsheets instead.
Predictor: Saffo, Paul
Prediction, in context:In a 1991 article for The New York Times, futurist Paul Saffo writes about the future of the PC as an information appliance for networking and other uses: ”The personal computer died this month [October, 1991]. Its passing was marked by the alliance announced by Apple and International Business Machines in San Francisco, just north of the suburbs where the PC revolution began a little over a decade ago. The announcement amounted to belated admission by the two industry giants that the future of computing lies in the development of new systems as radically different from today’s offerings as the original PCs differed from their predecessors. The personal computer may turn out to be like the horseless carriage, whose effect on our expectations was greater than its impact on our lives. PC users daydreamed of electronic cottages and global villages but settled for word processors and spreadsheets instead.”
Biography:Paul Saffo was the director of a decades-old research and forecasting foundation called the Institute for the Future, located in Menlo Park, Calif., in the 1990s. This Institute was a non-profit think tank that consulted for a large number of businesses and government entities, including telecommunications and consumer companies. (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: October 13, 1991
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Internet Appliances
Name of publication: New York Times
Title, headline, chapter name: Farewell, PC – What’s Next?
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.saffo.org/farewellpc.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Stotler, Larry