The prediction, in brief:

I doubt our offices will be replaced by minions working from home. The lack of meetings and personal interaction isolates workers and reduces loyalty. Nor is a house necessarily an efficient place to work, what with the constant interruptions and lack of office fixtures.

Predictor: Stoll, Clifford

Prediction, in context:

In excerpts from his book “Silicon Snake Oil” that were run as a sidebar story to a 1995 interview, Clifford Stoll talks about how he sees it that people can be vicitimized by the new communications medium:”Networks hold out the promise of telecommuting. One day, many of us will be able to work at home, any hour of the day or night. We’ll save gas, have closer family ties, and have a happier workplace. Oh? I doubt our offices will be replaced by minions working from home. The lack of meetings and personal interaction isolates workers and reduces loyalty. Nor is a house necessarily an efficient place to work, what with the constant interruptions and lack of office fixtures. The most common jobs require a workplace. Can a supermarket checkout clerk work from home? How about an auto mechanic, dentist or police officer? And where would country music be without old-fashioned jobs: trucker, miner, cowboy, teacher, farmer, waitress, bartender? These are the people that turn the cranks of every nation. Computers can never take their places.” 

Biography:

Clifford Stoll was an astrophysicist who also wrote the influential books “Silicon Snake Oil” (1995) and “The Cuckoo’s Egg.” A long-time network user, Stoll made “Silicon Snake Oil” his platform for finding fault with the Internet hype of the early 1990s. He pointed out the pitfalls of a completely networked society and offered arguments in opposition to the hype. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)

Date of prediction: October 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Economic structures

Subtopic: Telecommuting

Name of publication: Times (London)

Title, headline, chapter name: First Disciple of the New Faith Turns Heretic

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=a4d7accfbfebf143a2cfd0f7b9f1ce76&_docnum=11&wchp=dGLbVlb-lSlAl&_md5=28dc85ab6ab7c8e5cf9bd882f8ac5583

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Tencer, Elizabeth L.