If anyone’s going to be the informational mogul of South China, it’s probably Cheung … Cheung wants to extend the Net into China, and a lot of Chinese badly want him to do it … because they want to network their offices together, in China and other parts of Asia, without having to lease lines … It’s going to be a long time before the Net reaches the Chinese masses. So Cheung doesn’t think that electronic communications will cause any political changes in China except insofar as the free flow of information tends, over a long period, to make the economy more productive and lead to the development of a middle class.
Predictor: Chung, Aaron Y.T.
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article about technology and networking developments in China for Wired magazine, Neal Stephenson writes: ”Until recently it hasn’t been easy for these people to hook into the Internet, but gateways are opening up. Aaron Y.T. Cheung is the executive director of Hong Kong Internet & Gateway Services Ltd., which has just leased a line between Hong Kong and California. If anyone’s going to be the informational mogul of South China, it’s probably Cheung … Cheung wants to extend the Net into China, and a lot of Chinese badly want him to do it – not because they want to read the latest on alt.sex.bondage but because they want to network their offices together, in China and other parts of Asia, without having to lease lines … Cheung doesn’t see electronic media exposing a lot of people in China to new ideas. He points out that political change in China tends to come from the bottom up, when the masses go voluntarily and spontaneously into the streets, all echoing and sharing one another’s feelings. For reasons already discussed, it’s going to be a long time before the Net reaches the Chinese masses. So Cheung doesn’t think that electronic communications will cause any political changes in China except insofar as the free flow of information tends, over a long period, to make the economy more productive and lead to the development of a middle class. The fact is that the Net can only reach people who have imbibed a lot of Western culture already – you can’t even enter text unless you know the Roman alphabet. As far as the masses are concerned, the Net might as well not exist – the only important source of Western memes is television. In a sense, this is terrible news, because we all know what bilge television is. At the same time, the peculiar power of Western culture to colonize unlikely places may be the only thing Hong Kong has going for it.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Global Relationships/Politics
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: In the Kingdom of Mao Bell: A Billion Chinese Are Using New Technology to Create the Fastest-Growing Economy on the Planet. But While the Information Wants to be Free, Do They?
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.02/mao.bell_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney