We are entering a new economic environment – as different as the moon is from the earth – where a new set of physical rules will govern what intellectual property means, how opportunities are created from it, who prospers and who loses. Chief among the new rules is that “content is free.” … The creator who writes off the costs of developing content immediately – as if it were valueless – is always going to win over the creator who can’t figure out how to cover those costs. The way to become a leading content provider may be to start by giving your content away. This “generosity” isn’t a moral decision: It’s a business strategy.
Predictor: Dyson, Esther
Prediction, in context:In an article she wrote in 1995 for Wired magazine, Esther Dyson comments on intellectual property rights in the future on the Internet: ”What will almost-free software and proliferating content do to commercial markets for content? How will people – writers, programmers and artists – be compensated for creating value? What business models will succeed in this foreign economy? In a new environment, such as the gravity field of the moon, laws of physics play out differently. On the Net, there is an equivalent change in ‘gravity’ brought about by the ease of information transfer. We are entering a new economic environment – as different as the moon is from the earth – where a new set of physical rules will govern what intellectual property means, how opportunities are created from it, who prospers and who loses. Chief among the new rules is that ‘content is free.’ While not all content will be free, the new economic dynamic will operate as if it were. In the world of the Net, content (including software) will serve as advertising for services such as support, aggregation, filtering, assembly, and integration of content modules, or training of customers in their use. Intellectual property that can be copied easily likely will be copied. It will be copied so easily and efficiently that much of it will be distributed free in order to attract attention or create desire for follow-up services that can be charged for … I am not saying that content is worthless, or that you will always get it for free. Content providers should manage their business as if it were free, and then figure out how to set up relationships or develop ancilary products and services that cover the costs of developing the content. Or players may simply try their hands at creative endeavors based on service, not content assets: filtering content, hosting online forums, rating others’ free content, custom programming, consulting, or performing. The creator who writes off the costs of developing content immediately – as if it were valueless – is always going to win over the creator who can’t figure out how to cover those costs. The way to become a leading content provider may be to start by giving your content away. This ‘generosity’ isn’t a moral decision: It’s a business strategy.”
Biography:Esther Dyson was founding editor of Release 1.0 and a consultant and expert on computing and high-tech applications. She served as the president of EDventure Holdings. She founded the PC Forum, an annual conference and industry event. She had the highest profile of the women of technology in the 1990s. (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: July 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Controversial Issues
Subtopic: Copyright/Intellectual Property/Plagiarism
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Intellectual Value: A Radical New Way of Looking at Compensation for Owners and Creators in the Net-Based Economy
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive//3.07/dyson.html?person=esther_dyson&topic_set=w
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Falcone, Peter P.