The future growth of the Internet will not be determined solely on the basis of technical excellence … The network’s growth is too rapid to plan its path; the new breed of Internet entrepreneurs will undoubtedly effect many changes not anticipated by computer scientists and engineers … Within only two years the network will start to work subtle but significant changes in our cultural fabric.
Predictor: Auerbach, Karl
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for LAN magazine, Karl Auerbach and Chris Wellens cover the future of the Internet. They write: ”It is no longer possible for the Internet’s guardians to ignore the economic, legal, political, and social issues pressing upon the vast public network. The Internet is big business now, and large amounts of money are at stake. The future growth of the Internet will not be determined solely on the basis of technical excellence. In fact, the network is the subject of some technical concern as well. There are efforts to replace the underlying protocol, IPv4, with a substantially enhanced, new version. The growth of the World Wide Web has stressed many parts of the Internet, and the task of finding a path for each packet is becoming increasingly difficult. Security is a serious issue, and mechanisms to support multipoint communications and real-time distribution of multimedia traffic are being deployed and used… Is there any way to predict the route the Internet will take? Can we make any assumptions regarding its immediate future? It seems the answer is no. The network’s growth is too rapid to plan its path; the new breed of Internet entrepreneurs will undoubtedly effect many changes not anticipated by computer scientists and engineers … We predict, however, that within only two years the network will start to work subtle but significant changes in our cultural fabric.”
Date of prediction: October 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Community/Culture
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: LAN Magazine
Title, headline, chapter name: Internet Evolution or Revolution?
Quote Type: Paraphrase
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web1.infotrac.galegroup.com/itw/infomark/121/612/36098279w1/purl=rc1_ITOF_0_A17433050&dyn=11!xrn_138_0_A17433050?sw_aep=ncliveec
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Garrison, Betty