The prediction, in brief:

To go commercial, measured-usage billing is essential. Price is the time-tested coordinator or supply and demand. Internet carriers must be able to settle with one another for traffic carried on behalf of each other’s customers. And end-user billing, as offered by ISDN, is needed. A commercial Internet must be able to bill for usage by kilopackets and kilometers

Predictor: Metcalfe, Robert

Prediction, in context:

In a 1993 article he wrote for InfoWorld, ethernet originator Bob Metcalfe discusses Internet billing, usage, and traffic. He writes:”To go commercial, measured-usage billing is essential. Price is the time-tested coordinator or supply and demand. Internet carriers must be able to settle with one another for traffic carried on behalf of each other’s customers. And end-user billing, as offered by ISDN, is needed. A commercial Internet must be able to bill for usage by kilopackets and kilometers …”

Biography:

Robert Metcalfe developed Ethernet technology at Xerox PARC in 1973 and later developed the networking company 3Comm. He is known for making the exaggerated 1995 prediction that due to an expected overload as people tried to connect, the Internet would “go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” He later jokingly ate his words, pureeing a paper copy of the article including this comment and swallowing it before a group of onlookers. (Pioneer/Originator.)

Date of prediction: September 6, 1993

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: Cost/Pricing

Name of publication: InfoWorld

Title, headline, chapter name: Internet Must Go Commercial – and Do it Right

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=fbe00d9cdb631f8056d913b468d64f5d&_docnum=17&wchp=dGLbVlb-lSlzV&_md5=6b76879070e819f50558cc9a26cfd0c7

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Garrison, Betty