A decade ago, the network with the best shows won; now it will be the provider with the best agent who comes out on top. New interface metaphors and arcane search schemes will proliferate, as we thrash out the best way to make agents ever more capable diplomats, shuttling between users and the media they seek.
Predictor: Saffo, Paul
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article he wrote for Wired magazine, futurist Paul Saffo addresses the future of digital networks. He writes:”Agents are the obvious and much-discussed next step, but their value lies in the murky details of their operation and interaction with human masters … Just as networks once turned on microscopic shifts of Nielsen ratings, the subtlest of details in the algorithmic parameters defining these agents will spell wild success or utter doom for one player after another. Without a doubt, this will become a technological battleground as algorithms rather than content duels for market dominance. A decade ago, the network with the best shows won; now it will be the provider with the best agent who comes out on top. New interface metaphors and arcane search schemes will proliferate, as we thrash out the best way to make agents ever more capable diplomats, shuttling between users and the media they seek. The seductive chaos of the Internet today offers hints at why these agents to come will be so important. Like Alice’s Restaurant, you can get anything you want – but unless you have software help, you might never find what you are looking for. Thus schemes like Gopher and Veronica, WAIS and Mosaic are the hottest things on the Internet today. But for the Internet’s cultural bias against selling things for money, all these context-making schemes would cost plenty to use.”
Biography:Paul Saffo was the director of a decades-old research and forecasting foundation called the Institute for the Future, located in Menlo Park, Calif., in the 1990s. This Institute was a non-profit think tank that consulted for a large number of businesses and government entities, including telecommunications and consumer companies. (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: Intelligent Agents/AI
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: It’s the Context, Stupid
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.leadership-innovations.com/Articles/context%20stupid.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Stotler, Larry