Fiber-optic cable is theoretically capable of handling far in excess of anything we’re seeing today. Thirty-five Megabits is a trickle compared to what a single strand of fiber can do over time. As far as bandwidth, it is mostly the local loop to the home that is really the blockage point … General bandwidth is increasing in price performance or dropping in price faster even than microprocessors are. It’s by a factor of four or so every year.
Predictor: Andreessen, Marc
Prediction, in context:The following was taken from a transcript of a 1995 video interview of Marc Andreessen, conducted for the Smithsonian Institution by David K. Allison, curator of the division of information technology and society at the National Museum of American History. Andreessen quotes some of the ideas put forth by Bob Metcalfe: ”In general, the value of the network to everyone expands in proportion to the square of the number of the nodes, which explains the exponential curve you see wherever there is a measure of it. As far as handling the traffic, [Bob Metcalfe] also has a lot to say about that. The other thing that he says about the traffic is that fiber-optic cable is theoretically capable of handling far in excess of anything we’re seeing today. Thirty-five Megabits is a trickle compared to what a single strand of fiber can do over time. As far as bandwidth, it is mostly the local loop to the home that is really the blockage point. It’s because of the installed base for the regional Bell operating companies. This is something that they have to work through or somebody’s going to bypass them – the cable companies or wireless or somebody like that. Except for that fundamental limiter – access into the home – the general bandwidth is increasing in price performance or dropping in price faster even than microprocessors are. It’s by a factor of four or so every year.”
Biography:Marc Andreessen worked with Eric Bina at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois in 1992, to develop a browser that would be usable on any computer, easy to use and graphically rich. In 1993, their browser, Mosaic, completely changed the face of the Internet Ð it allowed HTML “image” tags which make it so text and art can appear on the same page; it allowed easy text scrolling; and it introduced hyperlinks, allowing users to simply click on an area of the screen to go to another document on the Internet. In1994, Mosaic was developed and marketed; the product eventually was named Netscape. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: June 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Bandwidth
Name of publication: Smithsonian Institution Oral and Video Histories
Title, headline, chapter name: Marc Andreessen
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://americanhistory.si.edu/csr/comphist/ma1.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Allen, Patrick J.