The prediction, in brief:

With public-access Internet sites, anyone with a personal computer and a modem can become an Internet user. This is the equivalent of being able to buy an automobile and go driving without having to take a driver’s education course, pass a test or become licensed … It creates the reality of tens of thousands of users set loose on the “Internet on-ramp” and raring to go. These users don’t necessarily do any harm, but they can place enormous, unanticipated loads on Internet services … I see the community of individual users as putting a greater demand on the Internet’s user services infrastructure – and stressing these services – versus primarily consuming bandwidth like the business community. The demand and revenues created by individual users may help sites to upgrade their links, e.g., from on-demand to permanent or from 56 Kbps to fractional, full and multiple T1.

Predictor: Dern, Daniel

Prediction, in context:

The 1995 book “Public Access to the Internet,” edited by Brian Kahin and James Keller carries the chapter, “Meeting the Challenges of Business and End-User Communities on the Internet: What They Want, What they Need, What They’re Doing” by Daniel Dern, an Internet analyst and the author of “The Internet Guide for New Users” and “The Internet Business Handbook.” He writes:”With public-access Internet sites, anyone with a personal computer and a modem can become an Internet user. This is the equivalent of being able to buy an automobile and go driving without having to take a driver’s education course, pass a test or become licensed … It creates the reality of tens of thousands of users set loose on the ‘Internet on-ramp’ and raring to go. These users don’t necessarily do any harm, but they can place enormous, unanticipated loads on Internet services … I see the community of individual users as putting a greater demand on the Internet’s user services infrastructure – and stressing these services – versus primarily consuming bandwidth like the business community. The demand and revenues created by individual users may help sites to upgrade their links, e.g., from on-demand to permanent or from 56 Kbps to fractional, full and multiple T1.”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: Bandwidth

Name of publication: Public Access to the Internet (book)

Title, headline, chapter name: Meeting the Challenges of Business and End-User Communities on the Internet: What They Want, What they Need, What They’re Doing

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Page 217

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne