Maybe all computers at the turn of the century will be traditional mainframe computers. They just will be sitting on desktops and other unlikely places. They will be networked. Nobody will know that they are traditional mainframe computers. They will keep this secret.
Predictor: Bell, Gordon
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Upside, the editors interview five leaders of the technology sector to ask them for their predictions. They include Gordon Bell, who led the development of Digital Equipment Corp.’s VAX computer; Robert Lucky, vice president of research at Bellcore; Nathan Myhrvold, senior vice president of advanced technology at Microsoft Corp.; Jef Raskin, who “launched the Macintosh project at Apple Computer Inc.”; and John Warnock, CEO of Adobe Systems. Here is one of the questions, followed by the answers from this stellar group: Q: “How many traditional mainframe computers will be left in the world [in the year 2000]?” A: “GORDON BELL: Conservative scenario: The number will not have significantly shifted. The amount spent on mainframes will actually increase by 5 percent per year. Radical scenario: The number will decline and the amount spent will decline by 10 percent a year; thus, the market size will be half of what it is today.” A: “ROBERT LUCKY I don’t know what a ‘traditional mainframe computer’ is. Maybe all computers at the turn of the century will be traditional mainframe computers. They just will be sitting on desktops and other unlikely places. They will be networked. Nobody will know that they are traditional mainframe computers. They will keep this secret.” A: ” NATHAN MYHRVOLD: A surprisingly large amount but less than today. No one will be buying new mainframes. But if some old mainframe is up and running and it’s working and the application is static, there won’t be much incentive to change.” A: “JEF RASKIN: 2,156.” A: ” JOHN WARNOCK: Mainframes are getting deemphasized today, but there is a good likelihood we will swing back toward more centralization of information because it may be more effective than decentralizing it. The machines that sit at the centralized location will not be traditional mainframes, though. They may look more like large servers.”
Biography:Gordon Bell proposed a plan for a U.S. research and education network in a 1987 report to the Office of Science and Technology in response to a congressional request by Al Gore. He was a technology leader at Digital Equipment Corporation (where he led the development of the VAX computer) and with Microsoft. (Technology Developer/Administrator)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Upside
Title, headline, chapter name: Musings on the Millennium: Five Leading Technologists Who Have Made an Impact on High-Tech Give Their Predictions on What the Future Holds
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Volume 6, Issue 10, Page 24 ISSN: 10520341
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney