The prediction, in brief:

Within the next 10 years, this explosive technological advance in both networks and processors virtually guarantees that the personal-computer model of distributed intelligence and control will unseat the emperors of the mass media and blow away the television model of centralization. The teleputer – a revolutionary PC of the next decade – will give every household hacker the productive potential of a factory czar of the industrial era and the communications power of a broadcast tycoon of the television age. Broadcasting hierarchies will give way to computer heterarchies – peer networks in which the terminals are essentially equal in power and there is no center at all.

Predictor: Gilder, George

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 article he wrote for National Review, George Gilder, a fellow of the Discovery Institute in Seattle and author of “Life After Television,” expounds on his views of future communications. He writes:”Within the next 10 years, this explosive technological advance in both networks and processors virtually guarantees that the personal-computer model of distributed intelligence and control will unseat the emperors of the mass media and blow away the television model of centralization. The teleputer – a revolutionary PC of the next decade – will give every household hacker the productive potential of a factory czar of the industrial era and the communications power of a broadcast tycoon of the television age. Broadcasting hierarchies will give way to computer heterarchies – peer networks in which the terminals are essentially equal in power and there is no center at all.”

Biography:

George Gilder was a pioneer the formulation of the theory of supply-side economics. In his major book “Microcosm” (1989), he explored the quantum roots of the new electronic technologies. His book “Life After Television,” published by W.W. Norton (1992), is a prophecy of computers and telecommunications displacing the broadcast-TV empire. He followed it with another classic, “Telecosm.” (Futurist/Consultant.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: General, Overarching Remarks

Subtopic: General

Name of publication: National Review

Title, headline, chapter name: Net Gains: Information, Technology & Culture; Breaking the Box

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 37-43

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney