Technopagans: May the Astral Plane be Reborn in Cyberspace
WorldView and VRML may well end up catalyzing the next phase of online mutation: the construction of a true, straight-out-of-“Neuromancer” cyberspace on the Internet.
WorldView and VRML may well end up catalyzing the next phase of online mutation: the construction of a true, straight-out-of-“Neuromancer” cyberspace on the Internet.
Computers can be as sacred as we are, because they can embody our communication with each other and with the entities – the divine parts of ourselves – that we invoke in that space.
Set-top boxes [will] sell for less than $500 in two years. [The] business model relies heavily on interactive advertising … People will want to interact with ads for information-intensive products like cars and pharmaceuticals. But at this point there’s no solid evidence that large numbers of people want to interact with TV ads or shop this way. The $4 billion video-shopping and infomercial industry has been successful because tantalizing videos of beautiful models create demand. Some people think QVC is entertaining.
Microsoft seems to be over-intellectualizing TV … “People have a money budget and a time budget,” [says] Thomas Wong … “And people are willing to pay to save time.” … They will use interactive TV to rent movies; shop for food, clothing, and household items; attend college and self-improvement classes; and get all kinds of information – all without having to leave their couch for time-consuming trips. That, he says, is what people in focus groups and surveys say they’ll do. I don’t think so … People watch television for an entirely different reason: to feel that they are part of something larger than their own lives … It’s a deep psychological fix … They also turn it on for company, as background noise. And who needs interactive background noise?
Microsoft approaches the business of interactive TV the same way it approaches computing. It wants to set the basic software standards and supply some applications while leaving the high risk of building capital-intensive hardware and networks to other … “We won’t dig up the streets and put $10 billion into the ground,” says Laura Jennings … “The TV must make the transition from a broadcast appliance to a tool,” says Lowell Tuttman … But isn’t that the most absurd of uphill battles? It’s the computer that was designed as a time-saving device. Not the TV. The TV has always been a time-wasting device. It’s there to entertain you, not help you get things done. GTE has already learned this lesson.
People were mostly paying lip service to the education, information, and time-saving features. So, the company’s new infomercials and marketing pitches hardly mention those. Instead, they emphasize the fun and entertainment aspects … the ability to play along with game shows, compete in trivia games, predict during football season whether the quarterback will pass or run the ball, and participate in special events, such as voting for your favorite actors on Oscar night. Coming soon: betting fake money on horse races. GTE executives might not admit it now, but it looks like gambling could be their killer application … By the year 2003 … GTE projects that up to 60 percent of U.S. households will have interactive TV.
The 500-channel, all-digital, high-fiber world of the future. Will it be a happy time, bursting with “choice, control, and convenience,” the mantra of every corporation getting into this business? Or will we take one look at it, snort, and go right back to reruns of “Baywatch”? For that matter, will it even happen? Will you want to “turn your living room into a mall,” as the Time Warner brochures promise? Or are so many industries rushing to make television interactive for the same reason that dogs lick their balls – because they can?
Some major players in the entertainment industry, not just in Hollywood, believe they’re going to dictate the flow of events. I laugh at that. I think Hollywood is going to have to fight hard to keep a dominant seat at the table. I don’t believe that the center of gravity in the online world will be naturally emanating from Hollywood. It’s likely going to come from a whole new generation of kids who grew up with videogames.
The Web is … the future of direct-response marketing … Of course, anybody who believes that all of this is not going to have a first-order-magnitude impact, particularly on the entertainment business, is incredibly foolish and will probably end up at a huge competitive disadvantage.
I believe in electronic distribution … There’s a bandwidth problem. There’s a packaging problem. I want it to sound exactly as good as a CD we press in the plant. I want the graphics to be exactly as good as what we print in the plant. The typical home is not soon going to have such sophisticated, full-color printing capability. And perhaps never will.