Much of the new activity within the print industry is fired by the same fuel propelling computer, telephone, cable and entertainment companies: fear. Technology is breaking down the barriers between these once-distinct industries, allowing unforeseen competitors into the new markets. This same technology could render any one of these industries obsolete.
It is conceivable that the marketplace alone could dictate that these [copy-inhibiting] codes be transmitted by the NII, even if the government doesn’t. … [But] I am skeptical the marketplace alone can handle an issue as complex as standardization.
The NII may be the holy grail for lovers of pre-recorded music, but without change in the copyright law it would also be a death knell to our industry … A transmitter would simply be able to procure one copy of a copyrighted work, and then transmit it to thousands of users at the touch of a button. One can hardly imagine a more bleak future for our company.
The single biggest problem with this undertaking … is it is one of those elephants that looks like something different to everyone in the room … Unless commercial opportunities exist, the NII will not get the funding it needs to succeed.
To be sure, the telecom boom of the 1990s is not a done deal. Lawmakers and regulators could dampen the spending explosion by maintaining traditional barriers to competition among the various telecom players or by slowing spending on the Information Superhighway. But the lure of a new profit frontier and the fear of being left out are driving telecom companies to consider investment programs unthinkable a few months ago. That’s the best news the demand-starved U.S. economy has had in many a moon.
The raw investment numbers understate the dynamism that will be unleashed by building the Information Superhighway. Much like the construction of the railroads in the 19th century, electricity networks in the 20th century and the interstate highway system after World War II, the Information Superhighway will change the way we live at home and work. It will also open up opportunities for new goods and services dreamed up by the nation’s innovators and entrepreneurs – cutting-edge ideas that spur economic growth.
Spending on the Information Superhighway isn’t likely to slow … even if current interest rates rise or the economy temporarily flags … The impact of their investments will have a powerful multiplier effect on the economy in coming years … Much of the gain from telecommunications investments will stay in the domestic economy, too, because U.S. producers account for a major chunk of the world telecom industry.
The nation’s telecommunications giants are poised to spend billions of dollars during the next decade to revamp their electronic networks and to lay millions of miles of fiber-optic cable. Investment in the Information Superhighway could generate jobs and swell incomes for years. Indeed, just as economic growth in the 1980s was kicked higher by real estate investment, economic growth in the 1990s may be driven by the telecommunications revolution.
Holmes told the promotion executives that they would have to rethink their craft in this new future. The interactive system of the immediate future will have the capacity to target spots to individual neighborhoods of 200-300 people, he said. The traditional notions of 30- and 60-second spots will lose their meaning, he said.
Programming will be structured according to one question. What does the customer want? The answer might be infomercials, classifieds, continuing education, couponing or even buying life insurance (with the cable company getting the commission) … And we will be in the telephone business.