Elon University

Archives: Expert Predictions

Where is the Digital Highway Really Heading? The Case for a Jeffersonian Information Policy

An optimist’s view of the next decade is that by some happy accident, the cable and telephone industries will be persuaded by a logic of self-interest to build broadband networks consistent with Jeffersonian ideals, even if they are unaware of or uninterested in the full range of democratic goals. They will come to see that networks which permit the greatest diversity of content and services – be it video programming, computer software, or whatever can be dreamt up by the mass media and individual users – will create the largest sustainable business opportunities … If adopted as a guiding principle, openness, as exemplified by the personal computer and the Internet, can be a driver of prosperity and diversity in any new market.

Where is the Digital Highway Really Heading? The Case for a Jeffersonian Information Policy

Networks that reach into the home will be hybrids of the fiber-optic cable and existing copper wire and coaxial cable used by telephone and cable television companies. Fiber-optic cables will be used in the major arteries and portions of the distribution system, while existing copper and coaxial cable will be used in the last hundred yards. To achieve a broadband network capable of delivering high-quality video, voice, and data, it is both unnecessary and too expensive to replace the last segment into the home with fiber-optics.

Where is the Digital Highway Really Heading? The Case for a Jeffersonian Information Policy

Private, not public: The private sector, not the government, will build and operate the NII. Despite extensive reports to the contrary, the government’s role will be limited to funding research, leading experiments with ultra-high-speed networks, helping promote standards, and protecting the public interest in privacy, freedom of speech, and other areas. Telephone companies and cable television operators, not the government, will be the principal carriers of traffic into the home.

Visions of Japan’s Internet Development: A Report on the Hyper Network ’95, Beppu Bay Conference

When this media blitz is over, people will start to get tired of using things like Netscape to read Web pages online every day. I mean, all these things about reading glossy magazines online – people are going to realize they can just buy a paper magazine and take it to a coffee shop to read … Once the initial rush to get on the Internet is over, people will start to look for a community to get guidance from.

Distributed Thinking – Netscape is one Big Fish

Both Hot Java and Webscape seem to need a T1 connection and a RISC workstation to be usable. So the likelihood is that most of us will be using Netscape Navigator for the foreseeable future. But it is fun to think of wandering around the world in a little virtual environment with little animations of Bill Gates or Scott McNealy guiding us to their favorite Web sites.

The Web Behind Mosaic

I like to think that Mosaic is a first-generation example of the next stage in software development, which I call “information ware,” where the software simply provides a frame in which the real action happens. That real action is provided by ‘user-level’ instructions embedded in documents.