The Great Wireless Hope
With numerous IT giants, including AT&T and Motorola, jockeying for a leadership position in the market, wireless will almost certainly continue to have a growing impact.
With numerous IT giants, including AT&T and Motorola, jockeying for a leadership position in the market, wireless will almost certainly continue to have a growing impact.
The future environment of wireless applications and devices is unlikely to be one of market dominance, but rather coexistence with wired technology. What once was wireless is rapidly becoming wired (e.g., cable television); what once was wired is becoming wireless (e.g., telephone, e-mail).
As LANs and WANs expand to accommodate graphics, video, and other increasingly dense files, it’s unclear how wireless networks will interact. As it stands now, wireless users tapping into an FDDI LAN will be taking a sip from a firehose.
Not only do wireless players have to concern themselves with the manner in which they send data through the air, they must also interface with all the terrestrial networks already in place that generally serve as the origin or destination of the wireless transmission. The success of transmission, switching, network interface, and end-user device providers will largely depend on their ability to make the proper design decisions.
The United States is developing a multiple-mode, densely interconnected communications and information network that will be owned and operated by dozens or hundreds of companies, supplied by thousands of content providers and based on whatever affordable delivery mechanisms that make sense to content users.
People watch television, they talk on the phone, they work on their computers. The tools and toys they have for each of these tasks work just fine, so why would they change?
The digital convergence is a crock. An interesting crock, a press-release-making and share-price-hiking crock, a great source material for hooked-in politicians crock, a cocktail discussion hipness-major-bonus-points crock, but a crock nonetheless. The need for a “digital convergence” can be buried with a hundred different shovels.
Essentially everybody with a workstation and an Internet subscription can become a publishing house and sell information products over the Net.
The middle stage, manufacturing physical copies of the information product, will more or less go away for hypermedia publishing because the users will be creating their own copies on demand as they download information from the Internet.
Either information publishing will be concentrated in a few, near-monopolistic companies, or the ability to publish information will be distributed over many more companies than are now involved. Both trends actually seem plausible due to different characteristics of hypermedia publishing.