Elon University

Archives: Expert Predictions

From the Ether: Predicting the Internet’s Catastrophic Collapse and Ghost Sites Galore in 1996

You’ve read that the Internet was designed to survive the thermonuclear war, but it’s repeatedly been brought to its knees, its circuits choked, for example, by the reaction to one measly jury verdict in Los Angeles [the O.J. Simpson trial]. The Internet is intermittently overloaded, and the TCP/IP architecture doesn’t deal well with overloads. Furthermore, the Internet’s naive flat-rate business model is incapable of financing the new capacity it would need to serve continued growth, if there were any, but there won’t be, so no problem.

From the Ether: Predicting the Internet’s Catastrophic Collapse and Ghost Sites Galore in 1996

During 1996, the war for control of standards will tear the Web. And early initiatives to migrate to Internet Protocol Next Generation will add to a general loss of compatibility. Such losses, including the flight to Intranets, will reduce whatever systemic value was accumulating in the Internet, as governed by the inverse of Metcalfe’s Law [a network becomes more valuable as it reaches more users].

Welcome to the Emerald City! Please Ignore the Man Behind the Curtain

Cultural patterns will be skewed to a more profound degree by new communication technologies: advanced target marketing technologies, specialized news services, and the “infobots” on the horizon intensify the differences between the communication and resource haves and have-nots … If the information superhighways are left to the commercial giants, public life will become yet more gray, empty, inequitable, and irrelevant.

Welcome to the Emerald City! Please Ignore the Man Behind the Curtain

If public participation is to have an effective role in the shaping of the national information infrastructure, it is important to begin now … By the time widespread interaction begins to create social awareness of the consequences these systems will have, it will be too late to act. Democratic participation is needed in the design stage, before technological momentum, sunken costs, and powerful constituencies solidify these networks.

Welcome to the Emerald City! Please Ignore the Man Behind the Curtain

Control over information will be expressed not so much through government censorship but by commercial pressure. In some communities, access requirements for cable television separate the production of content from the ownership of broadcast stations, and common-carrier restrictions and universal access requirements apply to the control of the telephone system’s information products. Thus, the new media conglomerates use technology to outflank existing legal protections. Monopoly control over the single wire into the household enables these corporations to charge high-end access fees to shut out competition or content which is unwanted. Universal access will become very expensive.

From the Ether: Predicting the Internet’s Catastrophic Collapse and Ghost Sites Galore in 1996

Dazzling product literature and advertising require at least ISDN speeds. But the major corporations upon which we are relying to upgrade Internet access past 28.8 Kbps are the local telco monopolies, which like our postal service and public schools have become little more than jobs programs. The local telcos will escape demonopolization in 1995 and, while they pursue long-distance voice business in 1996, their motivation to lower costs on high-speed Internet access will wither, fatally constipating the Web.

Welcome to the Emerald City! Please Ignore the Man Behind the Curtain

Conglomerates use mergers, investment concentration, and privatization to drain remaining non-commercial vitality from public discussion. Let me be clear: despite the admirable efforts of public advocates demanding access for schools, communities, and individuals, these initiatives are likely to be honored only in rhetoric, not resources. Social spaces on the information superhighway will be expensive. We may, if we desire, choose an alternative technological route, but given the present political climate, these initiatives will have the limited effectiveness of the 2 a.m. public-service announcement.