The Trends that Will Shape Our Future
The country is currently breaking into a brand new realm of communications and, at the Trends Research Institute, we are predicting a major “techno boost” in the next three to five years.
The country is currently breaking into a brand new realm of communications and, at the Trends Research Institute, we are predicting a major “techno boost” in the next three to five years.
We are moving out of the industrial age into a technological global age … The institutions that were developed during the industrial age – health care, businesses, politics, education, religion – are all restructuring. People are not focusing on this, even though it is a worldwide phenomenon. This transition period is going to be difficult for those who don’t recognize the nature and dynamics of the change.
As computers become cheaper and we learn more about harnessing them in our cooperative work, they will come to support an increasing number of different domains of knowledge work. Moreover, the sphere of computer-supported activity within each domain will steadily expand as more functions and more skills become employed … WYSIWYG will give way to WYSIWYN – “what you see is what you need (at the moment).”
How might we go about implementing an expected capacity scheme? … This mechanism has two parts: traffic flagging, which occurs in a traffic meter at access points, and congestion management, which occurs at switches and routers where packet queues may form due to congestion.
Interactive telecommuting will be uncomfortable for many years to come, and for many applications it may not be viable in our lifetime … remote surgery from Tokyo to Zaire will probably be off-limits, as will virtual sports games between real users. The optimistic side is that relatively short-distance telecommuting is almost inevitable.
There is now real evidence in the marketplace that some customers, given a choice of fixed or usage-based pricing, will prefer the fixed-fee structure. Thus, whatever the providers may prefer to do, competition may force some forms of fixed-fee pricing in the marketplace.
[1992 will be remembered as the year most people will want to forget because Americans] will be jolted into the realization that the institutions and experiments of the industrial age are ill-equipped to meet the demands of the emerging global age.
The Internet could have a major impact on both regional and foreign trade.
There is real concern that the Internet, which is subject to applications with much wider intrinsic variation in normal usage, will not remain stable in the future.
Even when phone calls are fixed-fee, people do not talk on the phone all day … However, there is a fear that these sorts of assumptions about human behavior will not translate into the computer environment.