The reality is that a Third Wave government will be vastly smaller (perhaps by 50 percent or more) than the current one – this is an inevitable implication of the transition from the centralized power structures of the industrial age to the dispersed, decentralized power structures of the Third. But smaller government does not imply weak government; nor does arguing for smaller government require being against government for narrowly ideological reasons.
Eventually, the Third Wave will affect virtually everything the government does. The most pressing need, however, is to revamp the policies and programs that are slowing the creation of cyberspace É If there is to be an industrial policy for the knowledge age it should focus on removing barriers to competition and massively deregulating the fast-growing telecommunications and computing industries.
Cyberspace will play an important role in knitting together the diverse communities of tomorrow, facilitating the creation of electronic neighborhoods bound together not by geography but by shared interests. Socially, putting advanced computing in the hands of entire populations will alleviate pressure on highways, reduce air pollution, allow people to live further away from crowded or dangerous urban areas, and expand family time.
The reason for American victory in the computer wars of the 1980s is that dynamic competition was allowed to occur in an area so breakneck and pell-mell that government wouldÕve had a hard time controlling it even had it been paying attention. The challenge for policy in the late 1990s is to permit, even encourage, dynamic competition in every aspect of the cyberspace marketplace.
It shapes new codes of behavior that move each organism and institution – family, neighborhood, church group, company, government, nation – inexorably beyond the materialistÕs obsession with energy, money and control. Turning the economics of mass production inside out, new information technologies are driving the financial costs of diversity – both product and personal – down toward zero, “demassifying” our institutions and our culture. Accelerating demassification creates the potential for vastly increased human freedom. It spells the death of the central institutional paradigm of modern life, the bureaucratic organization.
The central event of the 20th century is the overthrow of matter É The powers of mind are everywhere ascendant over the brute force of things. As humankind explores this new electronic frontier of knowledge, it must confront again the profound questions of how to organize itself for the common good. The meaning of freedom, structures of self-government, definition of property, nature of competition, conditions for cooperation, sense of community and nature of progress will each be redefined for the Knowledge Age – just as they were redefined for a new age of industry some 250 years ago.
The fact that the Internet is also used for activities inappropriate for kids, such as the exchange of pornography. It is a statistically minor issue, and technical improvements will help, but ultimately the responsibility for control rests with parents and teachers. The principal risk is that the issue will receive undue attention in the press and stimulate technophobic politicians to impose draconian restrictions on Internet access.
The network eliminates the need for big organizations. Individuals can get on, create information and sell it without the need for any company to support them. This totally changes the options for retired people and those who hate working for someone else. This has a major impact on the structure of the information industry, including newspapers, etc.
The network makes it possible to have complex relationships with individuals and groups of people all over the globe. The workplace and even the home may not be the focal point of oneÕs social interactions. Virtual corporations will come into existence on a regular basis. None of these changes will be trouble-free.
IÕd like to lift us out of the warm bath of self-congratulation in which we have been wallowing and speculate about the future. In my bleaker view, what was once our little pride and joy will be taken over by commercial institutions that have little interest in the kind of interpersonal and intergroup communications that has thus far dominated network usage. Commercial exploitation of all sorts will be forced into every nook and cranny, just as it is on todayÕs television.