The History of the Future

There is a stunning consensus that cell-switching, embodied in the emerging ATM standards, is the required infrastructure for this revolution. It is emerging as the appropriate backbone technology to support a variety of user services such as frame relay. Once corporations are connected to ATM backbones for inexpensive broadband data services, the [private-branch exchange] vendors will provide ATM interfaces, allowing corporate voice traffic to transition. As Internet applications, cable and video-on-demand and telephone services all transition to ATM networks, the distinction between them disappears.

The History of the Future

ItÕs not clear in the National Information Infrastructure thereÕs going to be anyone around who knows enough about all the pieces to make something work or, if something goes wrong, to fix it. The challenge is how to prevent that scenario from becoming the showstopper.

The History of the Future

Security concerns on the Internet are painfully real. Unfortunately, too many of the Internet access service providers simply provide a port and leave it up to the users to deal with security issues. That may have made sense in connecting a studentÕs PC, for which network security was not a significant concern, but is totally unacceptable for a hospital or a law firm with sensitive information on their networks. There are solutions. A variety of firewall offerings are available today, and improved offerings will be appealing. Privacy-enhanced mail offerings are also available to carry messages securely across the Ônet and to verify the authenticity of the sender. But none of these technologies is adequate to address the problem. Professional analysis is required to understand usersÕ technical and business environments and determine the appropriate approaches.

The History of the Future

Security is a problem, but firewalls and source verification using public key [encryption] techniques will take care of the issue. The need is greater than the risk.

The History of the Future

Commercial users, putting their product information on-line, will greatly strengthen the Internet. Users who send junk mail hurt it but are easily take care of since return hate mail is easy.

The History of the Future

Temporary labor markets will emerge É As corporations continue to downsize and move toward “virtual” corporations, more and more of the workforce will contract on a job basis using this sort of electronic market.

The History of the Future

“Yellow Pages”-type advertising will be a very effective way of reaching prospects. For example, all those who sell widgets can list their up-to-the-minute pricing for various sizes and quantities of widgets. Those who want to buy widgets can find the best price or submit an offer at some lower price, much as the stock market works today, but based on a software package running on an inexpensive workstation connected anywhere on the Internet.

The History of the Future

In three to five years, there will be millions of organizations, mostly small commercial organizations, doing their mainline business over the Internet as naturally as they use the fax today. In a couple years, it will be the default expectation that the little restaurant on the corner will have an [Internet directory listing]. As the technology evolves to the point that this can be used to place take-out orders or make reservations, such connectivity will become a prerequisite to survival. The same argument applies to most any business. Add security, credit-card charging and the L.L. Bean catalog, and voila – electronic commerce.

The History of the Future

There will be a huge increase in video on the network. In the corporation, the emphasis will be on video messaging. Computers are currently used for two things: computing and nonreal-time messaging. In the future, they will be used for a third thing: real-time communications.