The key to breaking down the existing academic empire is to eliminate credentialism … Making competency-based employment a universal business practice would provoke the rapid growth of commercial HL [hyperlearning]. The ferment of competition would quickly drive costs down while expanding the range and quality of applications.
Predictor: Perelman, Lewis J.
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article he wrote for Wired magazine, Lewis J. Perelman addresses the future of education in an age of digital networks in the form of an open letter to the nation’s information industry executives. He writes:”The key to breaking down the existing academic empire is to eliminate credentialism. In practice, that means getting the majority of employers to stop taking academic diplomas into consideration when making hiring, promotion or other employment decisions. Simply put, people’s economic opportunities should depend on only what people know and what people can do. Standard business practice should reflect this reality: There is no job in this economy that truly requires an academic diploma or degree for its successful performance. Eliminating the currency of diplomas would lead to a huge demand for effective tools to accurately assess applicants’ and employees’ knowhow. Sophisticated assessment tools already exist, and they are being used by leading employers such as the U.S. Army, Corning Glass, and Toyota. For example, a multimedia workstation used by Allstate Insurance Co. to teach the 12 essential skills needed by an effective claims agent also can be used to evaluate applicants for agent jobs. After an applicant spends two hours working on what is basically a specialized video game, both the applicant and Allstate find out precisely how the applicant’s abilities match the 12 key skill requirements. Because interactive multimedia training is far more cost-effective than classes, the applicant may need only a few hours of training on the workstation to make up any shortcomings – a far cry from being sent back to get another diploma. Today, this kind of training and assessment technology is used primarily by the largest corporate and military employers. Making competency-based employment a universal business practice would provoke the rapid growth of commercial HL [hyperlearning]. The ferment of competition would quickly drive costs down while expanding the range and quality of applications. Funding for the research-and-development and venture capital needed to nurture this new industry would come from a fraction of the hundreds of billions of dollars that would be saved when tax and tuition payers were freed from paying fruitless tribute to the diploma mills. So abolishing credentialism itself would go a long way to stimulate the growth of the new HL industry, even as the source of the education lobby’s political clout is cut off at the root. But that nascent industry will not be able to grow fast enough to satisfy the public need for education’s replacement unless the $450 billion a year that the education sector now absorbs is liberated to follow the consumer.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: E-learning
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: School’s Out: The Hyperlearning Revolution Will Replace Public Education
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.01/hyperlearning_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Stotler, Larry