The robots will be a continuation of us, and they won’t mean our extinction any more than a new generation of children spells the extinction of the previous generation of adults. In any case, in the long term, the robots are much more likely to resurrect us than our biological children are.
Predictor: Moravec, Hans
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Wired magazine, Charles Platt, author of “The Silicon Man,” interviews Hans Moravec, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University’s Robotics Institute and the author of “Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence.” Moravec predicts that thanks to networking technology by the year 2040 “there will be no job people can do better than robots,” and adds that machine intelligence will miniaturize itself to subatomic level, gently eliminating humans but remembering us kindly as its creator. Platt writes: ”[Moravec says,] ‘Progress is inflicted on people in the same way that natural evolution is inflicted on people. It really is evolution; it’s the selection and growth of information, transmitted from one generation to the next.’ … The progress he’s talking about will be offered via the free market, not physically imposed on anyone. ‘All I’m suggesting is that we give people a choice. In the next decade, people will either buy their housecleaning robot or not buy it. And I think they’ll want to buy it. Then they’ll have the choice of upgrading to one that learns, and I think they’ll want that, too. Then they’ll have the choice of a robot that claims it’s conscious, a really nice entity that talks like a person, seems to understand you, and has nothing but your best interests at heart – because that’s how it’s programmed. And then the fourth generation will take that personality and add intelligence. It will be a constant help to you; it will explain why something that you want to do isn’t what you should do – because it loves you. I think people will like these machines and will quickly get used to them.’ ”[Platt says,] Well, yes – until the machines cut loose, develop hyperintelligence, and bring about our demise. ”[Moravec replies,] ‘But I don’t consider it a demise,’ Moravec retorts, still insisting that his vision is wholly positive. ‘The robots will be a continuation of us, and they won’t mean our extinction any more than a new generation of children spells the extinction of the previous generation of adults. In any case, in the long term, the robots are much more likely to resurrect us than our biological children are.'”
Biography:Hans Moravec was a professor at Carnegie Mellon university’s Robotics Institute who caused a lot of consternation with the book “Mind Children: The Future of the Robot and Human Intelligence,” in which he predicted the rise of machines and extinction of humans. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Community/Culture
Subtopic: Human-Machine Interaction
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Superhumanism: According to Hans Moravec, by 2040 Robots Will Become as Smart as We Are. And Then They’ll Displace Us as the Dominant Form of Life on Earth. But He Isn’t Worried – the Robots Will Love Us
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.10/moravec_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney