[If there emerges] considerable freedom for individuals in their use of the NII, people will exploit it in currently unimagined and unsanctioned ways. To many people, some of what occurs will seem wasteful, disgusting, obscene, sexist, racist, even criminal … We must protect the speech that most offends us and the religious beliefs we find most stupid and repulsive … The possibility remains that the NII could turn into a largely one-way street, one where “consumers” receive information but will not have freedom to retransmit or alter it. This is the “500 channels of TV” model, the worst scenario for the future because it implies an audience composed of inert consumers and passive paracitizens, easily manipulated by any technically adept spin doctors.
Predictor: Maddox, Tom
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article for Wilson Quarterly, Tom Maddux writes: ”If, as seems likely, there emerges out of today’s struggles and negotiations over the new medium considerable freedom for individuals in their use of the NII [National Information Infrastructure], people will exploit it in currently unimagined and unsanctioned ways. To many people, some of what occurs will seem wasteful, disgusting, obscene, sexist, racist, even criminal; to others, merely vulgar and depressing. Some already lament the waste of network resources – or ‘bandwidth’ – resulting from the storage and transmission of binary files of explicit sexual images or from ‘anti-social’ modes of behavior such as ‘flaming’ (i.e. sending abusive e-mail to an individual one finds annoying). Such practices stand as honorable evidence of that ‘certain decisive will not to be governed,’ and so we must protect them above all, as we must protect the speech that most offends us and the religious beliefs we find most stupid and repulsive. In fact, because the new information technology we are creating seems to lend itself more readily to improvisation and freedom than to rigid planning and control, it is not unreasonable to hope for triumph. Still, the possibility remains that the NII could turn into a largely one-way street, one where ‘consumers’ receive information but will not have freedom to retransmit or alter it. This is the ‘500 channels of TV’ model, the worst scenario for the future because it implies an audience composed of inert consumers and passive paracitizens, easily manipulated by any technically adept spin doctors with access to the profiles.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Controversial Issues
Subtopic: Censorship/Free Speech
Name of publication: The Wilson Quarterly
Title, headline, chapter name: The Cultural Consequences of the Information Superhighway
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://weblinks2.epnet.com/citation.asp?tb=1&_ug=dbs+1+ln+en%2Dus+sid+90970082%2D4C44%2D4E9B%2DBC3F%2DCA2177A4B175%40Sessionmgr2+4051&_uh=btn+N+idb+afhish+jdb+afhjnh+op+phrase+ss+ID++WLQ+CC1F&_us=bs+JN++%22Wilson++Quarterly%22++and++DT++19940601+ds+JN++%22Wilson++Quarterly%22++and++DT++19940601+dstb+KS+fcl+Aut+ri+KAAACB1D00237018+sm+KS+81AB&fn=1&rn=5
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Garrison, Betty