[Developments for the future include a] project investigating the neural nets of small animals to see if they are applicable to future chip design that more nearly approximates living intelligence … the optical amplifiers and wavelength multiplexing technology that will broaden bandwidth to unimaginable degrees; the revolutionary digital-audio compression algorithms; the optical trapping technology that allows levitation and precise manipulation of matter down to the molecular level; the new type of semiconductor laser, the quantum cascade, able to emit light at fantastically specific wavelengths; and even the newly created lead-free brass alloy … We’re demonstrating that the investment in knowledge pays off in the long run.
Predictor: Penzias, Arno
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Wired magazine, Richard Rapaport goes to visit AT&T’s Bell Labs research scientists and administrators, interviewing Arno Penzias, vice president of research and a man whose work in confirming the big-bang theory won him a share of a Nobel Prize. Rapaport writes: ”[Arno Penzias says,] ‘Today, we have an environment of interaction; while it is still collegial, you live with the business people.’ He admits that at today’s Bell Labs, ‘we want more process and responsibility,’ but allows that ‘we have to be more careful – not all searches are equal.’ Not that this is a situation without advantages. Clearly, Bell Labs is still a scientific powerhouse. ‘One of our great luxuries,’ he admits, ‘is that we don’t always have to be right.’ Another great advantage is that Bell Labs can invest in defensive research. ‘We don’t want to be blindsided,’ he says. [He mentions the many concepts being developed at Bell Labs, including] a project investigating the neural nets of small animals to see if they are applicable to future chip design that more nearly approximates living intelligence … the optical amplifiers and wavelength multiplexing technology that will broaden bandwidth to unimaginable degrees; the revolutionary digital-audio compression algorithms; the optical trapping technology that allows levitation and precise manipulation of matter down to the molecular level; the new type of semiconductor laser, the quantum cascade, able to emit light at fantastically specific wavelengths; and even the newly created lead-free brass alloy. Then there are the Nobel Prize winners of the future. But, finally, Penzias is a realist when it comes to assessing Bell Labs’s role. ‘We’re filling in a piece of the technology puzzle, an important piece but one not as grand,’ he says. Still, his belief in the importance of Bell Labs is as unassailable as it is unequivocal. ‘We’re demonstrating that the investment in knowledge pays off in the long run,’ he says flatly. ‘America and the world would be a far different place without us.'”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: What Does a Nobel Prize for Radio Astronomy Have to Do with Your Telephone? It’s Been a Decade Since the Break-up of AT&T. Has the Spirit Passed Out of its Bell Labs, as Some Charge? Or is it Still the Preeminent Technology Lab in the U.S.?
Quote Type: Partial quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.04/bell.labs_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney