Responses to this 2020 scenario were assembled from Internet stakeholders in the 2012 Pew Internet & American Life/Elon University Future of the Internet Survey. Some respondents chose to identify themselves; many did not. We share some—not all—of the responses here. Workplaces of respondents who shared their identity are attributed only for the purpose of indicating a level of expertise; statements reflect personal views. If you would like to participate in the next survey, mail andersj [at] elon dotedu; include information on your expertise.
Anonymous responses to a tension pair on the future evolution of apps and the Web by 2020
This page includes a selection of the anonymous survey participants’ responses to a question about people’s perceptions of the likely future of apps and the Web by 2020. This is one of eight questions raised by the 2012 Elon University–Pew Internet survey of technology experts and social analysts. Results on this question were first released by Pew Internet Director Lee Rainie and Imagining the Internet Director Janna Quitney Anderson in March 2012.
Survey participants were asked, “Will the Amazon, Apple, Google model of apps, app stores, and controlled devices dominate to the point of diminishing the importance and utility of the open Web by 2020? What are the positives, negatives, and shades of grey in the likely future you anticipate?”
Many of the experts surveyed by Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center and the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project predicted…
>To read the official study report, please click here.<
>To read the responses of participants who took credit
for their answers to this question, click here.<
Following is a large sample of the responses from survey participants who chose to remain anonymous when sharing their thoughts in the survey. Some are longer versions of responses that were edited to fit in the official report. About half of the respondents chose to remain anonymous and half took credit for their remarks (for-credit responses are published on a separate page.
“The very notion of ‘apps’ vs. ‘Web’ misses the point of changes in infrastructure that are rather closer on the horizon. This does not even take into account two extraordinarily important things: The majority of the world accesses network communications via a mobile phone (and though network access is patchy at best, apps in this case are far more efficient), and apps and Web are becoming very much interconnected with cloud. It is the cloud that is poised to change how things are done for work, play, and communication and apps and Web will provide interfaces.”
“Apps will use the open Internet in ways we don’t have now, and new protocols such as those underlying the Web (including various types of browsers) can be extended or developed to give access to new capabilities. For example, I’d like to see a new open protocol that can handle multi-source materials statelessly—using the ‘URL’ not as a location-based resource but rather as a key to assembly of source materials.”
“Apps stores today are reminiscent of software in the 1990s. Unorganized, unclear directions, no quality control—they are merely a stopping-off point to cloud-based, Web-interfaced apps. Apps and the Web will become indistinguishable. A parallel: People used to really believe that ‘Lotus Notes’ was their operating system. It was the center of their lives. Ditto today with many Facebook or Google users. To the consumer, the structure is irrelevant. I think that for the next decade they’ll exist side by side, though the preference for things like shopping, mapping, and other things will go to dedicated devices—especially when mobile. Of course the repercussions are great when a corporate entity controls the distribution of information. Apple’s minimization of profits for content providers, for example, will be studied for years.”
“I don’t see the public likely to give up its love affair with the openness of the Web by 2020.”
“The apps will win out; the ‘great unwashed’ prefers plug and play without having to understand or navigate to their activities.”
“The too-many-apps syndrome is already here. HTML5 will hopefully help address this. The apps are approaching the same points that too many bookmarks and too many Lotus file folders did and they aren’t readily managed and on my iPhone the scrolling is annoying already. People can’t remember what apps they have, let alone use them well. Where is the all-encompassing app finding tool?”
“What I see is a reduction in variety within (not across) areas of activity. As for what people will do: There is already a confusing and frustrating array of hardware, software, apps, Websites, etc. Choosing from among them and then using them is burdensome. While learning and getting accustomed to any one of these is not that hard, the diversity of them, with their different interfaces, is already problematic. When I come back to a piece of software or an app that I use infrequently, I have to figure out once again how this one works. So I see whatever will simplify and unify our activities as being popular. As much as we worry about, say, Apple or Google, their consistency across many instances of use makes them easier to deal with. I see economy of effort, combined with quality of service, as the overriding criteria by which most people will make most such choices.”
“The World Wide Web will not be stronger, nor will it be completely compromised. Web service technology has some advantages, in particular the many screen sizes it supports. The small screen of most mobile devices that have been adopted (the vote is still out on tablets—they are really too large for true ubiquitous mobility) is a barrier to ‘deep dives.’ There are also physical concerns—aging eyes, and ergonomics (the Kindle gives me a terrific neck ache when I try to read in bed, and I’m not too enthused about taking it into the bath, another place I read for recreation). Not all information can be gracefully atomized to the size of a mobile phone. People probably won’t be doing most of their ‘deep dives’ on the phone on the subway—the app is the ocean surface for floating and swimming, the Web is the ocean for diving. Besides, most apps depend on an underlying Web service—but most people are probably not aware of that, and their primary interface for most tasks will be the mobile device.”
“This is largely a distinction without a difference. The apps that thrive will not be walled gardens, which is kind of what the Web is dead argument implies, but different and more useful viewpoints on the larger Web which make it easier to navigate and use for a single task. So really the answer is both of the above.”
“Personally, I’m for the open Web, but I do see apps gaining popularity and importance. I’m afraid I’ll have to choose the negative (in my opinion) alternative, apps.”
“While the Web and being able to use it well through computer interaction, faster and more efficiently, is obviously superior, I believe that what’s new definitely gets play—and people will want to use apps more than Web because of the convenience of having them with them all the time on cells and the like.”
“Apps will continue to grow and proliferate, but there will still be many important uses for the open Web. I think they will coexist 50-50.”
“It seems that apps are likely to take over. Certainly apps are easier to use on mobile devices and ease of use is a big factor in people’s choices. I don’t think this will be a good thing, but the trends point toward it.”
“Both responses will be true. Applications will continue to grow and some will use them exclusively, while others will prefer the ‘open Web.’”
“The most likely future is in the middle. What’s most likely is the continued decline of Web-surfing—just looking around, following links, and seeing where they go. So, the open Web probably won’t grow a lot. Rather, it will merge into the apps that access it.”
“The focus on mobile apps is definitely inevitable.”
“This is not an either-or proposition. We will have apps, but they are dependent upon and connected with the World Wide Web.”
“It doesn’t seem likely that some aspects of the World Wide Web could be replaced with small apps.”
“People usually take the path of least resistance with respect to getting information and accomplishing goals. If apps can provide that, that is what people will use. We know enough about human information behavior to be able to do this now and in the future.”
“The second scenario will still be around by 2020, but essentially, scenario one will be inevitable, perhaps by 2030 or 2040.”
“The most practical issue here is ergonomics—a widescreen viewer and the Web would always be a primary choice other apps may supplement this when one is on the move.”
“Neither seems accurate. Chances are we’ll get something in between the two scenarios, though with a slight tendency towards the second.”
“I have great concerns that a new digital divide is emerging between people who have smart phones and ‘dumb’ phones. I also think as mobile phone companies raise prices for increased broadband access, people will cut back on their access, just like they are now cutting back on cable TV service.”
“Binary choices suck. I think the second answer is closer to being non-binary.”
“I don’t doubt that the market for apps will continue to grow. I don’t have a sense of the implications of this for the Web, since I really don’t distinguish between communication networks (‘open Web’ versus other networks).”
“I fail to see this distinction. Unless you’re an assembly-level programmer or the like, any interaction you have with the Net will be mediated through some program (‘application’), be it Angry Birds or Drupal. All levels of communication and activity will continue to flourish.”
“By 2020, the Boomers will need large fonts and have arthritic fingers. Apps might be too hard to use.”
“The Web is the programming platform of the future.”
“The Web will ultimately win out—people don’t want their choices to be confined. A Starbucks app is fine but what if I want another coffee shop? People always want the option to go somewhere else.”
“The question is framed badly. Apps and Web browsers are delivery mechanisms—the emphasis will shift strongly to services. The winning services and sites will be accessible by whatever means and device the user has—browser or specific app framework. Consider the number of popular websites that support Web, app, and customized mobile access today. The underlying Web technology will remain important, as developing for the Web will make it easy to roll out apps for the multiple app frameworks that will be viable in 2020. No, the iPhone is not going to conquer the world, neither will Android, and I expect there to be at least one more viable mobile app platform in that timeframe.”
“This is asking the wrong question. We talk about the Web as if it were the HTTP servers that make it up, but it really is the information contained in it that’s important. Prior to HTTP, we had FTP and Gopher. The proliferation of the Web is actually continuing in the various apps available, the Web is not being supplanted by the apps. So ‘one or the other’ is probably the wrong question. A better question might be—‘How is the evolution of the Web best represented by apps—momentary overlay or paradigm shift?’”
“The answer is somewhere in between. The biggest factors here are going to be issues of perceived control (by users and governments), monetization of content, customization, and the level of sophistication of users. As a result, I expect a bimodal distribution describing app use vs. online use, with the majority using a hybrid approach.”
“The question is not that the Web will be less important or useful. The point is—the Web will be still important or useful but most devices and apps will find a more direct way to perform directly through the Internet (though not through the Web) several functions—such as entertainment media, weather information, banking, etc.”
“Opportunities to integrate data with physical spaces are under utilized, today, which means in 2020 there will be more ‘apps’, but they won’t displace certain Web-only applications where screen ‘real-estate’ and heavy-weight computation are necessary resources. The limits of ‘ubiquitous computing’ will become more clear, as the hardware limits for battery life and network connectivity limit the scale of computation for certain applications on mobile devices.”
“App monocultures will not predominate, and in the absence of a single target platform for development, it’s simpler and more profitable to develop for the Web, and not be beholden to an app store or platform vendor. Obviously, apps will continue, as will app stores, but they’ll continue to be mass-market outlets for lightweight products on the one hand, and very narrow vertical outlets for very specific platform-dependent professional tools on the other, while the entire middle-ground will continue to belong to the Web.”
“The improved capabilities of mobile devices, plus the added efficiency, convenience, and enjoyment of using purpose-built apps will shift the consumer and non-IT specialized worker’s focus rapidly to native code apps. The distinction between phone and tablet will disappear, becoming more of a matter of how much text or graphics you want to see in what size. With free or inexpensive apps for 90% of consumer’s needs, that is where further investment will focus. Organizations will deploy apps for single-purpose internal functions. The World Wide Web will still exist for free-form research and use.”
“Go, Web, go!”
“We will not call it the World Wide Web.”
“There will be lots of apps in the future—but the browser will not die. The apps might be more ‘useful’ in that they are tailored but they may also be somewhat limiting.”
“There is value in both scenarios, and while apps will significantly grow in importance, the Web will not be replaced but will also grow. Neither answer is correct.”
“The either/or choice above is a false one. The future is likely to be a blend of both, particularly as Apps aren’t separate from the Internet but are a functionality linked directly to it.”
“The future is likely to experience cycles of development, where apps and the Web vie for superiority. We are currently in an app-driven cycle that will probably extend past 2020. Under current trends, these apps are pushing people into isolated islands of platform specific flavors (Android, iPhone, etc). Most apps interface with Web-based servers. In order to keep devices small and mobile, serious computation is housed on the servers to which the apps connect. As apps proliferate, the servers become increasingly important. At times, coordination among servers that cross-cut app platforms will be necessary. During those periods, attention will shift to the Web.”
“My answer is limited to the ‘most people who actually have access to the Internet and apps (since ‘most people’ may lack access to either). The more perfect the ‘killer apps,’ the more imperfect and limiting we will find them to be. Apps will be used as tools, but never substitute for the vastness of the unlimited and unwieldy. Children at the beach will continue to build with their hands no matter how many plastic shovels, rakes, and forms can be made in China and peddled at Wal-Mart. Sure, they may use better ones, and have a favorite bucket with that interesting handle, but they will never give up their hands. The high-speed ferry to commute to work along a narrow route across the strait may be terrific, but still no substitute for the slow, unpredictable, and unrestricted sea kayak on the open water.”
“I am marginally inclined for the ‘open Web’ result in terms of likelihood—i.e. fighting myself to stay optimistic. The answer is more a patchwork by market segments. To keep the ‘open’ option viable, much hard work is needed.”
“Most apps are just gateways to websites.”
“Apps, probably, will only ever be secondary to Web browsers, or follow new innovations that will start as Web-based and move to apps.”
“I wish the second scenario would be the case, but I really have arguments neither to back up my wish, nor to support the other option.”
“The apps currently are strengthening the role of the Web and they are not replacing it. The explosion in mobile apps is mainly because they are providing a simpler interface to the Web. Maybe they will be reshaped, this is true, but its role will continue to grow and be strengthened.”
“There will be one or two dominant app vendors but the Internet will remain vibrant.”
“What’s critical is ubiquitous access. In the end, apps are tied to devices or operating systems and therefore not ubiquitous.”
“The cloud will dominate, mostly accessed by mobile devices and apps. The Web will bifurcate to several parts—open and distributed; private government and corporate controlled sections; and the ‘deep’ Web for hackers, anonymous, and probably some anarchic groups.”
“I don’t see the Web going away, I just see apps as emerging and complementing it.”
“I am going more and more off the grid, with pleasure. We see more movies in cinemas, use our public libraries for free lent media, and enjoy face-to-face more than ever. We don’t own a TV and share a portable phone, always turned off, only for emergencies. We spend less and less and feel better and better.”
“The first scenario will happen, in large part because primary and secondary education will increasingly use such tools so future generations will be very comfortable with them and expect them in all parts of their lives.”
“People are using more and more apps; this trend will continue. This will raise problems of interoperability among apps belonging to different providers. This will also affect customers because they will have to choose one provider, and they will probably be ‘forced’ to continue using the same devices to be able to access their older data.”
“Eventually, even downloading and installing an app will become as much as a hassle as the thought of installing software today via CD-ROM. As bandwidth and computing power continues to increase, there will be less and less of a need for apps to be installed on a physical device. HTTP-based interfaces are also more widely compatible than apps. Build your software once using standard HTTP languages, or build separate versions for each device or carrier. The choice is clear.”
“I hope for scenario number two. Basically, in the current client and server silo model these are the two choices. But personal data stores and VRM will disrupt that model so the client and server or cow/calf model that the Web currently is built around will shift dramatically over the next nine years. At that point, neither one of the scenarios conveys what will really happen.”
“I personally like the second scenario and think it should come true. However, people do not always do what I think is rational.”
“As devices, operating systems, and soft/hardware variants multiply, the Web will be increasingly seen by content providers as a more lucrative place to develop applications (rather than a specific piece of hardware or software). Developers will rather create one Web or cloud-based program that works on everything, rather than several different applications. As companies like Apple control their app stores with iron fists, we’ll see software developers exploiting new Web technology to reach the widest audience and prevent a middle-person from skimming a percentage of profits.”
“There likely will be a compromise with no ‘winner.’ More and more apps will integrate with web. There will be both in abundance.”
“We are moving away from individually delivered applications to open access via the Web and through cloud computing. This will make dissemination of these applications easier and more effective. Security measures will be developed to minimize potential abuses of open access.”
“In 2020, that the ‘good enough’ solution of the Web will still be the dominant factor in people’s online lives. The infrastructure and effort required to shift ‘most online work, play, communication, and content creation’ to apps is too significant to happen in nine years. Consumers will change their behavior, and are largely agnostic. The issue is more the cost of business transitions. Most significant of these is the business shift necessary to transfer current functions offered by the Web into app services.”
“The World Wide Web will indeed be more important and significant than ever, but not in users’ lives. The Web will become infrastructure, like the Internet itself, with which users rarely interact directly; their apps will use it because it’s a great way to organize information, but people won’t.”
“As we know from the Apple vs. Microsoft cycle of the 1980s and 1990s, you can’t run a high-margin, high-volume business through apps, and the new capabilities of the browser will make it the pre-eminent high-volume platform. I don’t think there will be any ‘widespread beliefs’ involved—like automobiles or phones before it, the Web will be so vital by 2020 people will take it for granted. The average citizen born after 1995 won’t be able to imagine a world without the Web any more than the average citizen born after 1950 could imagine a world without trucks.”
“It will be both/and—apps will become even more common, but the Web will certainly remain.”
“The second option is my selection because the first has already occurred with many applications that were ‘sold’ as the answer to the collective need. People will want to ‘believe’ that they are able to make choices based on their in individual thought. Also, the second option is less restrictive and open to new thought and experiences.”
“The transition to scenario one is pretty far along, so I would not doubt that specific apps will be in the ascendancy by 2020.”
“Most people will prefer to use apps, but more content creators will also know how to create apps. I think we will have the same security issues we do now.”
“This is a perfect illustration of the necessity of Net Neutrality enforcement. The open Web will always be more useful than a narrow subset of apps.”
“I chose neither because I believe that a combination of the best of both will evolve.”
“This question is strangely worded. I assume the ‘Web’ here means like a Web browser where you have to use URLs rather than just clicking an icon on your desktop? I think that people will increasingly use things that look like apps in their Web browser. Chrome is already heading in this direction with things like chromeos and the Chrome app store.”
“Seems like we’re seeing pushback against the walled garden, apps model.”
“Apps will be useful, but ultimately we are on the road to more person-centered app-creation software that provides greater adaptability of personal needs and emerging problems.”
“Maybe we will see more community networks staying online with the World Wide Web—those with terabyte-access to the Web, will be apps-devoted, those with broadband access will keep as today. Those with ‘no access’ will turn massively to cellular phones, a media that seems very handy for the vast majority of the world out of the digital era.”
“The Web makes apps possible, but the user interface will be apps driven.”
“It may be that the open Web becomes a ‘repository of information’ while apps become the default option for people to do everything else.”
“Mobile all the way.”
“As the Magic Eight Ball says: ‘Future is Hazy. Roll Again.’”
“Although I chose the Web option, the real answer lies between these two models. Apps are convenient and easier to access than the Web, and the public puts a high value on convenience. However, apps do not afford the integration of the Web. My expectation will be a movement toward more apps, but within the app-development community I expect to see more work in integrating with the Web. For instance, virtual worlds are and continue to pursue ways to view Websites in-world; most news apps are merely ways of viewing Web content in a smaller format; productivity apps aim to integrate with desktop software using Dropbox, Google apps, and other Cloud-based databases that reside on the Web. So what I expect is that many apps will be integrated with the Web, transforming the Web much as the Web 2.0 concept did.”
“There are a lot of corporate incentives to work through apps and the amount of money that can be chained to the development of that (because there is payback for the apps) could crush open Web development. To the extent these apps are as or more appealing than what is available through the Web today, the convenience of having them anywhere through mobile provides another incentive for their ability to replace what we know of Internet application technology today.”
“The emergence of HTML5 tips the scale in World Wide Web favor with a twist. Apps written in HTML5 simplify coding for developers and accelerate time to market.”
“I can’t see apps completely taking over the Web. I imagine there will be a general increase in their number and use, but only as portals to the World Wide Web, which will remain just as strong”
“Users look for commodity (in the context of consumerism) and apps are simply faster and more practical.”
“To me this seems to be where we are heading at the moment.”
“I see no reason why we went from using applications in 1980 to 1995, to the Web in 1995 to 2011 on, just to suddenly go back to a zillion different apps. Mobile devices will evolve as desktops did to a common platform for many users”
“The Web won’t go away for jobs requiring a larger screen or full keyboard. But jobs that can migrate to mobile devices will migrate. This happened with laptops (over desktops) and it will happen again with smartphones and tablets (over laptops).”
“As smartphones continue to evolve, people are increasingly expecting more from these connections, and apps are the preferred form for content delivery in many cases (Twitter and Facebook come to mind). Many Websites are accessible via their Websites from people’s phones, but are often handled and formatted much better in an app, so it seems like the greater potential is for apps. There will continue to be a market for the open Web unless the app-driven model takes over desktop computers as well (and then into enterprise environments), but I can’t tell if that’s going to happen or not.”
“Apps are a passing fad generated by the Apple marketing machine and the artificial constraints imposed by its business model. There’s no reason the open Web will not come to provide the same benefits that people get from apps, while still holding on to its own strengths. The interoperability that the Web offers will trump the walled-garden silo, approach. The tide has already started to turn on this with magazine publishers creating Web apps instead of Apple apps so they don’t have to be at the mercy of Apple’s monopolistic business dealings.”
“I heard a lecture recently in which the speaker predicted more use of apps for reason cited above, but I only see a blank space when I look into the future of open Web vs. apps.”
“Apps are a stepping stone toward a more full Internet. The reason they are popular is that they offer special access to a device’s functions that Web browsers don’t. That will be solved with security and technical upgrades and this will make apps just another tool.”
“How the Web will evolve is impossible to predict, but surely it will not be as simple as the app.”
“I am too much of a Luddite to select either option.”
“This one could go either way but I believe the Internet will remain strong and dominant because of the immediacy of its content. Apps are more static and must be upgraded all the time to stay current.”
“Apps provide some ease of use—but the lack of cross-platform application is still a problem from what I can tell. Do users need a set of apps for one operating system and another set of apps for other operating systems? To the extent that’s necessary, the open Web will still play an important role in daily life.”
“While apps will grow in use and capability, the Web will also, and it will continue to offer a sense of community and connection. It is unlikely that the kinds of apps mentioned here, which would require a greater monopoly than is likely, will transcend the Web.”
“People have seen the drawbacks of investing their time and energies too heavily in a single platform or device. Therefore, the Web will be the ultimate pool from which to draw.”
“I am pessimistic. I believe the World Wide Web will stay open and vibrant as a means of disseminating new ideas and results. I don’t think any one app will be able to contain the research community. However, for consumers, education, and news, apps may win out. This is a shame because apps have the risk of censorship, filtering, and, in general, less openness. But the apps will offer the ‘consumer’ something more convenient than the World Wide Web because now it floods people with information and interaction choices. The apps will sort and filter and make interactions easier and more personalized.”
“The Web is often about information retrieval, whereas apps are often about information creation (but not always). We need both. The ‘Web’ has changed a lot in the last ten years, so pretending to define it as including or excluding apps is silly and ahistorical. Google Docs is apps on the Web, what’s the difference? It doesn’t matter, it’s just a label.”
“I do not think this is an either/or question. Websites are apps. Apps are not websites—yet. They will be.”
“The two approaches will merge to form a hybrid in which apps and the open Web influence each other and generate content and capabilities available to users accessing the system from multiple avenues. Indeed, the Web may become a vehicle for accessing device, as well as app-supporting server-based content. I suspect the app world will have an edge, but some degree of app-fatigue may also set in, prompting new evolutionary moves by developers and market participants.”
“Apps will play a dominant role, but there will be multiple avenues to access the Web and that will make it more important.”
“The app revolution will soon be complete. Users welcome trusted intermediaries provided they feel they are getting maximum choice and good value. Well-designed apps will emerge to accommodate user-generated content and make it much easier to find and use. Apps will also create a more efficient marketplace through which creators can harvest value for their innovations, far more easily than the repeated, failed efforts to monetize ‘Web content.’ Apps Store providers can ensure that apps are bandwidth-efficient, that they protect consumer privacy, that their provenance can be more readily known to potential users, etc. While there are some potential trade-offs on ‘openness,’ the apps marketplace should be sufficiently competitive such that anyone with a legitimate product will have the opportunity to reach an audience—probably far more readily than most innovators can through the Web. By no means will the Web disappear—it will serve a critical free-speech function. But it will not be where livelihoods are made.”
“Apps have their place, especially where mobile devices are concerned. Limitations of computing power, screen real estate, and networking overheads mean that a highly optimized app experience is typically superior to a browser-based alternative. But apps are also rather limited in their extensibility and ease of development compared to a webpage for information dissemination. Compare the number of different webpages you visit in a typical day versus the number of apps on your mobile device, and then imagine trying to manage an app for every website you visit and use on a daily basis. It becomes unwieldy when the paradigm is extended beyond its core competence.”
“While apps are prevalent now, they will eventually overreach and the market will react to the concentration of power, just as it did against Microsoft.”
“Up until a very short while ago, I would have voted otherwise on the question. In the past few months, however, I have been introduced to a wide variety of developers, technological leaders, artists, writers, entrepreneurs, and everyday citizens from around the world who share a deep concern about the growing influence of the walled gardens that the app industry represents. They are all actively developing and championing the open Web as the future and the response that I have seen to their efforts has been nothing short of remarkable. There is a real backlash brewing and I don’t think the app market is ready for that. What I do believe is that apps will find and adopt open standards that allow users increased functionality in a vibrant and open Internet.”
“Soon people will realise, that you do not need a ‘Web app’ in order to have a Web-related experience. Data will mostly live on the Web, as it already does—email, calendars, contacts, browser bookmarks, and soon music and photos already live on the Web. In order to get the best experience accessing them, however, specialised apps are the best choice, as they can best harness the capabilities of the devices we use to access the data.”
“The answer is somewhere in the middle of the two options provided. The Web (sites, content, hyperlinks, etc.) will continue to thrive and evolve. Applications (native to particular devices) will continue for a while, but will be phased out as the devices become powerful enough and better connected such that the native Web experience better matches that of their desktop computers.”
“Facebook, Google, and Amazon will still ‘dominate’ their markets, but there will be more competitors and more churning among competitors as features evolve. A leading minority of users will resist staying with the dominant application environments. Their continued migration across the Web to find new alternatives will prevent any single ‘walled garden’ approach from eliminating the open Web. While they are a minority of users, their demographics (young, educated, presumably high-value consumers) will mean that they can continue to shape the evolution of new applications.”
“This is not an either or question. Apps are the Web and Webs are the app.”
“The scenarios are alternatives that occupy the full space of choices that are possible. My own sense—and I am following that sense in my own products—is that the Web and ‘apps’ are really two faces of the same coin. By this I mean that Web browsers will become app-hosting platforms (Google’s Chrome is moving that way) and that the underlying network protocols will tend to be HTTP/HTTP5 and other mechanisms that use URL/URI name structures to reference data.”
“While the Web itself will never go away, it tends to be more like a giant Yellow Pages for the quick finding of information, such as business websites or newspaper reading. Conceptually, I still categorize ‘the news’ as content, not a format. Realistically, both statements are equally true. Apps already make use of the information provided by the Internet, in that they already work in conjunction with one another. I can only see this in-tandem development continuing.”
“Cloud computing will take over sooner than 2020. The pain in the ass of constantly updating programs, and the poor design and competition in much of the software marketplace will ensure that.”
“This is hard to predict. It will depend on how powerful the oligopoly will be in creating a stratified system wherein the Web is deemed low-class and is therefore underfunded and slowed via corporate and regulatory connivance.”
“Apps (a small number of them) will be dominant in certain sectors, for specific tasks. The Internet will become more of an information resource. As Pew Internet research shows, engagement is important, engagement through the Internet is different then engagement through apps—this will not change, and will ensure that the Internet remains important. I do not think the Internet will be less or more important. Apps will increase in importance, and the Web will evolve, but its level of importance will not change.”
“In 2020, ‘applicability to task’ will remain a major factor in which ‘glowing rectangle’ a user finds necessary to complete the desired goal or action. The open Web will remain as the repository and archive of all or most knowledge. The access points to the archive/repository will continue to evolve to reflect the specific tasks a user wants to accomplish. Although much hype and focus has been applied to ‘apps and devices,’ they are ultimately access points to the treasure trove of available resources, specialized for the task at hand. This will remain very black and white through 2020.”
“I sincerely hope the open Web will not fall to the wayside. It’s more likely that it will be a combination of the two. I see apps as more specialized, finite, and often limiting in interactive possibilities.”
“The Internet is dead? Maybe among the small subset of American consumers that can afford a pricey closed app device, and maybe in Japan, where hardware creation is still king. But the open Web is alive everywhere else—in Mozambique, Columbia, and in Poland, places where new ideas are taking hold but the equipment available to express those ideas are old PCs and old cell phones. The price for entry on the open Web is far lower. Anyone can make a Web page, but not everyone can make an app. The open Web will continue to be where the action is long after my iPad has become a coaster.”
“People are lazy and will want it to be easy. They will give up open and powerful for that.”
“In the United States, we place a priority on individual choice. Apps enable that kind of choice. Some work may be accomplished through the open Web, but most people care more about their own private lives and idiosyncratic tastes and are unwilling to sacrifice those attributes to keep the Web open for the common good.”
“UI is key, and the advanced UI of apps will continue to edge out the open Internet.”
“I think there’s a hybrid future ahead, but apps are definitely on the rise.”
“Unfortunately, I think the greater ease of monetizing apps will lead to their dominance.”
“Cloud computing is the answer.”
“I’m not really sure how the two would even be considered as competition, unless apps means tools like Google Calendar, Gmail, Google Docs, etc. But those replace desktop applications and do not compete with the functions of the Web.”
“Although apps will no doubt continue to proliferate, there are things that will just never be comfortable to do on a teeny-tiny little screen. The population isn’t getting any younger, nor is its eyesight improving.”
“We have already seen that, in spite of apps, most people read their news on mobile phones via their Web browser. Applications provide a controlled user experience for the most loyal brand user. For the uncommitted, the World Wide Web is still the preferred access method. Furthermore, in each topical area that forms a community, there are brands that are wealthy enough to afford application development (quality apps, not knock off RSS feed based apps). The remaining and vast majority of the content is not mobile bound, though it may be optimized for the mobile and portable Web. The content creators cannot afford to sink $20, $30, or $40,000 into a quality application. Community loyalists will continue seeking out topic specific data created by fellow community members, which can only be accessed on the Web, and not applications.”
“Purpose-built apps do appear to be a game-changer. They are more convenient.”
“The pendulum swings on this one. In the Apple world, ‘apps’ will probably win. In the Android world, I am betting on websites. ‘Apps’ are part of a closed, controlled system. Websites are part of an ‘open’ system. I expect both to exist in 2020.”
“Perhaps unfounded, I believe people will not side with a full cable-ization of the Internet.”
“We are moving to an apps-centric world with the World Wide Web playing a supporting role.”
“Apps and Web/cloud will always ebb and flow. Consumers won’t always understand when processing is taking place on their device and when it is taking place remotely.”
“It just seems that the specialized focus will win because the creators will have better insights, better execution, more clever manipulations, and a faster, sleeker upward curve. It’s a bunch of small, sophisticated yachts vs. an unwieldy ocean liner.”
“This is blurry at best. Apps (with Web access) still provide the richest experience. It is not clear to me that this debate even matters—what difference does it make running an app or interacting via a Web browser? As computers become more powerful, displays become better, and storage costs continue to fall the run-time environment provided by a device will continue to provide rich experiences for users. The cost of connectivity is not free yet, and mobile due to spectrum scarcity is still a key factor. One just has to look at the issue with large cloud users and their broadband service providers (AT&T, Comcast, etc.) to see we are a long way from a fully network centric model.”
“It’s all about the apps, baby. The Web will stick around as a platform of least common denominator access, and as the super-structure of app-based info delivery. If new tools are built on the Web, though, they’ll quickly move to apps, because the ideas are easier to monetize there. Elaborate: No. All of the most useful apps will depend to some extent on high-speed, always-on access to the open Web. Of course, by 2020 there will be metered access, but some level of access will still be available to all, and a fair amount will still be free, or subsidized.”
“We’ve already been through the cycle of siloed information before—financial information in this database, personal information in this spreadsheet, etc., and we’ve seen where it (didn’t) get us. Sure, apps will be easy to use for small, single-purpose tasks, like checking your bank balance or making a dinner reservation. But the Web will still continue to thrive because the juxtaposition and crossover of information is just as (if not more) important than little individual data alone.”
“Commercial interests will eventually rule over the free-exchange of information. Apps represent a potent source of revenue. Increasing attention will be put into developing these profitable programs, and people will come to rely on them more and more.”
“‘Apps’ provide a convenient way to deliver packaged software to specific devices. It represents an evolution in the way that self-contained software is purchased and delivered. While this is an important part of the software industry, and always has been, going as far back as magnetic tape and punch cards, the World Wide Web is something different. The Web is an open, collaborative hypermedia environment accessible by any device that conforms to published standards. Its future is secure, as long as it maintains the openness and accessibility that have brought it success so far.”
“I’m really uncertain of my answer on this one. But the development of richer environments of Web-based applications will enable the open Web to continue a strong role. Which is ‘dominant’—open-Web or apps—I really can’t predict. I don’t think anyone can do so with much assurance at this point.”
“Both the Web and apps will continue to develop and play important roles in people’s lives.”
“I picked the second scenario only because it’s slightly closer to what I think will actually occur. The move to ‘apps’ and controlled devices is co-evolving with the move to cloud services that are wholly dependent on the Web and Web access. Also apps require Web access for updates and often for their functionality, since many apps depend on cloud services to provide data on whatever real time task you’re trying to do. So I think you might want to consider that we’ll move to an app model that isn’t separable from what you’re calling the ‘open Web.’ (Also, an app model doesn’t haven to be closed.) The scenario I envision is that we’re moving to a cloud/app model on the Web, which reflects the move from desktops to mobile devices. Often I wonder whether there will be a backlash against the cloud and automatic updates for apps, when people realize that all their personal data is in the hands of third parties they have no reason to trust. In such a scenario, people might return to a kind of 1990s model, where they want to store all their data on home servers rather than relying on third parties. But I’m not sure if such a scenario would ever come to pass—a lot would have to change.”
“Both statements are true (but apps will be demonized). Yet, apps are here to stay.”
“I don’t think you can separate apps from the Web. One needs the other while the Web provides the access.”
“As the Web evolves with new versions of the protocols used today, it will be possible to program ‘apps’ that run in the browser. This has the advantage of being more device agnostic.”
“Because of the short attention spans and need for instant gratification, specialized apps will dominate.”
“Both the open Web and specialized applications will continue to advance, and both will still be vital. However, we will see an ‘app-ification’ of the Web itself, something we’re already witnessing, as people’s use of the open Web goes far beyond information retrieval on ‘sites.’ Browsers, design, and coding techniques have already made ‘Web apps’ a common thing. There will probably be less of a gap between the capabilities and behavior of ‘native apps’ and ‘Web apps’ in the not-too-distant future.”
“People seem attracted to the idea of the World Wide Web and its openness. Still, people will choose certain apps for personal use, convenience, security, as well. These will not be either/or choices, but both/and choices. In this arena, the power of more choices will be strong, I think. There is much commentary about the overwhelming nature of these choices and about the tendency of businesses to have us lock in our choices with particular products. Still, the economics of open (free) and controlled (cost) will continue to make open environments attractive, even if they can be messier to deal with.”
“While I believe the Internet will continue to grow and thrive, I also see the popularity of apps on smartphones increasing. I hope the open Web continues to thrive, and we don’t have to access it through corporate applications.”
“I do not think that the Web will diminish to the point of being considered ‘useless’ via apps because apps rely too heavily on the fact the consumers know what they want, and know how to obtain what they want. The term ‘Google it’ has not become a part of modern language because people are sure how to obtain the information they want.”
“The advantage of the Web is searching for information. There are so many options and it is quick to sort what is relevant and what is not. Apps are slower and more difficult to navigate from the Web.”
“There’s definitely a strong marketplace for apps, but apps can’t fulfill all Internet needs. I think the apps market will bubble and then burst. Users will notice the limitations of apps. Mobile devices will improve their ability to access mobile-optimized Web interfaces. Users will move back to using websites. There will be a growth in mobile website development using HTML5 and CSS. So that a single site can have both a mobile and a desktop browser interface—but the underlying site content is the same. I see the improvements to mobile sites replacing the need for apps. And app use will decline.”
“Apps seem to be growing in dominance now. I assume that will only continue as long as the use of the tablet grows.”
“People expect to be able to access the Web anytime and anywhere. They will use a mix of apps and mobile-optimized websites on their devices. Many information providers like non-profits, educational institutions, and libraries will not be able to afford to develop apps for every possible device.”
“The open Web will continue to thrive. There’s a disruptive innovation coming where the walled gardens of apps will need to disappear because people will want to share. Think of Angry Birds—people want to play it no matter what platform they are on. There are companies now trying to make it easier to deploy video and apps to different mobile devices. At some point, the fragmentation of the mobile ecosystem will be dealt with, too.”
“Authorities will, piece-by-piece, eliminate the free Web through regulation, licensing, and firewalls that respect country borders. The Web will be more like cable TV via apps. Everything will be either pay-as-you-go or advertising-supported.”
“Reality will be somewhere between the two scenarios. Both the Web and apps will become more sophisticated and will tend to reinforce each other, rather than compete. Both will also be far deeper into less sophisticated societies across the world than now.”
“The Web has too many affordances to die. Apps may be the dominant mode of interactive consumption, but the Web will still be the medium of choice for content production and sharing. The digital literacy and financial barriers to participation in the app ecosystem means that the Web will still be the most direct way to instantly reach other users around the world.”
“Thinking in terms of apps vs. World Wide Web is not thinking far enough ahead. In 2020, people will remember Amazon and Google as quaint, similar to pre-Web Internet protocols like Gopher.”
“Since there aren’t apps that exist to do what I want them to do, I don’t see us going the way of the ‘app’ versus the way of the ‘Web’. Apps can’t link to each other and do not have as much functionality as the Internet. Although I have an iPhone and use a Kindle, I still see most of my life going through the Internet.”
“Apps afford simple ways to accomplish very specific tasks, but consumers will not want to be limited in what they are able to do or access. Therefore, the Web will continue to be the ultimate resource.”
“Apps are being terribly oversold right now. Unless an app has special features that allow it to take advantage of special capabilities of a smartphone or tablet, the Web will continue to be the primary informational and interaction on the Internet. Besides, every small business can’t replace its Website with an app—that would make user screens overcrowded.”
“The future is the mobile Web.”
“I hadn’t thought about this at all before, but it does make sense that apps are going to become very popular. With all your friends located in one or two apps, all your work located in apps, all your information needs covered in a couple of apps (e.g. Wikipedia and the yellow pages), the open Web will seem more and more like a lot of noise.”
“Positive: Controlled devices makes it easier for developers of new apps—they have a limited number of platforms to design for. Negative: No longer freedom of choice for the consumer and increasing power for the limited number of suppliers.”
“The Web will continue to be the place to play. However, I think the software industry will drive all apps to be Web-based. This offers so many advantages to software development companies that there really is no other choice for them.”
“As time goes on, people will become concerned about the monopoly placed by apps for specific devices, and eventually there will be more of an open market. One cannot deny the technology advancements of Apple, Amazon, and Google to our world, yet the free market of the Internet will always have a strong place in the online world.”
“The Web in the broadest sense is necessary for the apps to work. So we can’t say anti-Internet. It will just look and work differently. I think this is a poor question.”
“The open Web will still be the go-to place within which apps play a significant supporting role.”
“Hardware and OS specific apps are a transitional technology. They are necessary now because we have such a lousy broadband infrastructure and because the initial roll out was on smart phones that can’t really handle the form factor necessary for the Web. The world will become OS agnostic and ‘fat’ client based apps will morph into Cloud-based apps.”
“We already are seeing a flattening of apps being downloaded. They are here to stay, but I do not see apps taking over all our functions.”
“Apps lend themselves well to mobile technologies, which will continue to get less expensive, and will fuel their adoption and widespread use.”
“Apps are a way to organize and harness the power of the Web but the Web is the infrastructure.”
“I’m not sure whether apps will diminish the importance and utility of the open Web, but they will become more prevalent. It seems like apps vs. the Web represent different user bases. Usually apps are used by less tech-savvy individuals and data shows that many people who don’t own a computer own smart phones—especially among low socioeconomic status individuals. The Internet may be more populated with tech engineers and early adopters who drive technological innovation and need the Web to create the complicated systems that generate new trends.”
“The depth and breadth of the Web won’t be superseded in the next nine years.”
“I personally support the second scenario but worry the United States will drive us towards the former. We’re at a turning point, and I can’t predict which way we will go. It still saddens me that Wi-Fi isn’t considered a basic necessity provided free of charge by the government; privatized Wi-Fi is a horrible barrier to productivity.”
“More personalized content is where it’s at. That’s what people want—don’t waste their time with stuff for the masses.”
“This dichotomy fails to appreciate the convergence between apps and the Web if HTML5 takes hold as it already is. So apps will be the norm, but it is a nomenclature game, not a practical one.”
“Unless the FCC significantly bolsters net neutrality regulations, I fear that we are moving towards a closed Web (for most mainstream uses of the Web). Business will argue the need for better management of quality and better security—and the FCC will likely listen to business voices over those of the citizenry.”
“The use of apps may not be as pervasive as it is today. Simply put, we cannot keep track of all the apps and there are concerns with security. It is more likely to be a blend of Web-enabled communication and centralized apps. Maybe a Microsoft Office for your phone. Who wants to interact with hundreds of apps? Convergence will occur and leading providers like Google, Microsoft, or Facebook will likely be your trusted provider.”
“While more and more of us will do things by apps, I can’t imagine the Web not playing a huge role in our lives. Will we will all be introduced to the Google equivalent of all apps—some kind of app search engine to get us the apps we need at the moment we need them? While I have my favorite websites, I am constantly exploring new ones. How can apps fill the more research-and-discovery-focused endeavors?”
“The future is probably somewhere in between, but already the rise of apps for so many activities makes it seem as if apps are the future. But, uses of the Web were scarcely envisioned thirty years ago, so apps may seem old-fashioned from a perspective twenty years hence and something we haven’t even thought of will be what people use for work, play, communication, and content creation.”
“I like apps, I don’t see them replacing the World Wide Web, and I don’t completely agree with either option above. Both apps and the Web will continue to grow and that there’s a place for each. Personally, I want them both to be around in 2020 (and beyond).”
“In 2020, apps will be present and useful, but there will also be a committed group of people who heeded Doug Rushkoff’s advice about learning to program or be programmed. Turning all power over to companies via their apps is problematic. Hopefully there will be many who can convince others to not relinquish such control.”
“There will still be a place for both apps and the Web, or who knows what may be coming in the next nine years. There may be some other technological way to share and find information. Apps haven’t been around that long, so why not something else?”
“The bets against an open Internet have always lost (I was with Cisco Systems for six years) and this bet will lose as well. Apps will become increasingly important (and continue to be free in many cases) but the downside is security and platform (device software) stability and transition. It is because the open Web is the standard to write to that it will survive.”
“Since it will always be a case of ‘you do not know what you do not know’ the Internet and its unlimited options will be the dominant source of information gathering. Apps are restrictive and therefore not for the general user.”
“I am not sure—it could go either way.”
“You can’t read more than ten lines on the mobile.”
“Apps require more hardware resources—processing power, storage—than browsers, they don’t readily facilitate pre-processing, and updating them requires a download. All-in-all, I fail to see a how apps have a significant advantage over browser-based applications. So, assuming that the best technology will win, apps have a limited future at best.”
“The apps usage will be one more node in the evolution of the Web’s growth. It’s not a one or the other, it is one plus one equals ten.”
“First, apps work for target markets and known uses. If I want a one-off experience with my utility company, I am unlikely to download a specific app to my desktop, tablet, or cell phone. I would rather go to their website and do a one-off experience there. Two, I don’t have unlimited capacity to download and store apps on my devices. For my company, we have adopted a Web strategy over apps; designing for the Web browsers is challenging, but designing apps for the different mobile platforms appears brutal.”
“Applications are useful for specific tasks that cannot be generalized; the Web, however, is far broader in its use and scope. To envision that an individual will have an application for every website, every online interaction, seems simply infeasible.”
“The main issue to be resolved before the Web is everywhere is privacy. And attitudes are changing towards privacy—so the issue will be as much about security. As my daughter says—‘I don’t consider privacy an asset.’”
“Apps will proliferate for the next few years, then someone will develop smarter ‘open Web’ browsers and tools so that we can simplify again.”
“The people who guess right will make a lot of money.”
“Open Web allows for so many easy applications without searching and finding them.”
“Both will coexist —apps that provide frequent repeat value will be downloaded; the rest will come by Web. Moreover, apps will double as surfing devices and will be gateways into social networks of various kinds. That is, there will be more models than app vs. Web—there will be apps into the Web, and websites that function like apps.”
“If by ‘the Web’ you mean a business model rather than a participation and social model, then there is basically no difference between scenario one and scenario two.”
“Apps are very specific and targeted in their use, whereas the World Wide Web is virtually infinite in scope.”
“People don’t understand how the Internet works now—and apps minimize the problems inherent with viruses, poor functionality, and malware. Apps will continue to proliferate, especially as mobile phones are increasingly used to access the Internet. It is not that the Web will be unimportant; it will just become part of the underlying technological framework that users acknowledge but do not understand.”
“Based on my own experience at this point—there will continue to be an open Web but the app world will be of equal value.”
“Applications suit specialized purposes, when a user wants something specific (i.e., movie times). To perform everything the Internet has the potential to provide, a device would have to accommodate a whole hell of a lot of apps. So much to the point where usage of a specific app would be of a ‘one and done’ nature, decreasing ease of user interface.”
“The only apps that will gain widespread acceptance will be those that are available cross-platform (as is currently the case for Java, Android, Firefox, Moodle, etc.). The Web will continue to be the backbone, and attempts to capture users by introducing proprietary apps will ultimately fail.”
“I hope that open-source gains ground and that the movement towards sharing is the direction we’re going. I’m talking about entities such as Creative Commons and the like.”
“My hopes rather than my fears are choosing my response. The openness of the Web is something people have embraced and while apps streamline it in specific ways, I believe the Web will continue to expand, like the universe. Open access to knowledge serves the global community, and even as wide-open an endeavor as Wikipedia has resulted in a somewhat/mostly accurate ‘encyclopedia’.”
“Change will be driven by growing disgust with the functionality of desktop software, which will also help to system-design what you are calling the ‘open Web.’ It will be a very long time before consumers fully entrust their digital lives to closed systems, though tablets are certainly pushing in this direction. Apps are here to stay, but I do not think they will dramatically change the role of more open systems over the next decade. Also, there will also be a growth in content providers, and many of the trends driving the app world are focused on consumption. Trends towards natural foods, community gardens, live concerts, and the like will grow in importance. There will be powerful trends towards individuality as people embrace the importance of human experience in a world more dominated by tech knowledge.”
“Goodness, this is one that is hard to imagine. Apps do have content, but in order to access the infinite information contained on the Web, one would need hundreds of thousands of apps. My knowledge and use of apps is limited and I would need far more information about their capability and capacity before voting against the Web!”
“Apps are nice, but need updating a lot and might move to a pay only option—feeling as though it might lock people in. The Web is much more open and free (with solutions to find ‘free’ if you look hard enough).”
“Apps are a novelty and will diminish in popularity as time progresses.”
“The Internet world will be more diverse in 2020. Apps and many other things will be important.”
“Apps will allow individuals to customize what was formerly their Web experience by giving them an easier-to-use interface for the types of information the most often desire.”
“Both scenarios are likely, I would be happier in the first one.”
“I expect the models to coalesce.”
“The device market and app-developers will drive this change, rather than the consumer, but the consumer will be driven to this destination.”
“Until there are some standards developed that encourage cross-platform compatibility, I don’t see device-based applications gaining widespread adoption. I have an Android-based smartphone, and it irritates me greatly that people are still developing iPhone-based applications prior to developing apps for devices which comprise a greater market share than the iPhone.”
“Unless apps are able to be platform agnostic, I do not see apps taking over the Internet. It just doesn’t make sense for companies to develop apps for a variety of platforms when they have code like HTML5 that can be viewed by any device.”
“People won’t really know the difference, and won’t care. The Web will be ‘where you find stuff’ and the apps will be ‘how you do stuff.’ The high cost of entry into the app space, and the low cost of entry into Web will keep the Web vital and living. App space will be understood to be corporate, protected, and safe but costly.”
“Apps are a means to an end and there will be other means.”
“Can apps function without the Internet backbone? It’s a false either/or question.”
“Never underestimate the power of a small group of committed people to keep the Web open and useful to all (to paraphrase Margaret Mead). Taking the Web back to the dark ages of closed environments (like AOL) would be a huge mistake. The fact that most people think Facebook is the Web today is worrisome.”
“The Web will only gain in importance going forward, and I think people will wish to control their own usage, although apps will continue to offer helpful, handy options for many.”
“Not willing to gamble on the black, white, and grey—clarity will not be a required specific.”
“The problem with apps is they are too specialized. We need to be able to switch back and forth, transferring data and information back and forth, communicate the same info in multiple ways. Apps need to become much more like the Web to do that, so why not stick with the Web itself?”
“I’m going to go with synthesis. By 2020, there’s no reason to believe that what we think of today as ‘the Web’ and ‘apps’ will be valid distinctions. HTML5 (although extremely rough) and other nascent languages are working to bring app-like experience to Web interactions.”
“Apps appear to be more elegant and easy to access.”
“While apps do specific things and do them well, the Web and the Web browser will still be the Swiss army knife of information exchange. Of the people I know who have full-featured smart phones with oodles of apps, they only use about five to six of them on a regular basis, and for everything else, it’s the Web. The reason is, though there is that special app for that infrequently performed task, you have to remember its name and that you downloaded it.”
“World Wide Web vs. apps is the new version of the 1990s World Wide Web vs. AOL.”
“The development of apps will continue to thrive but overall the Web will be where the need for such apps will originate. Without the Web to ‘create the need’ what will be the point of the app? For instance, if I do not have the Web to deliver the information I seek then why would I need a curation app? I think the Web will continue to get more sophisticated and app development will follow.”
“The World Wide Web will continue to be important because of global considerations. I doubt if apps will dominate, because they’re linked to specific hardware that everyone may not have access to.”
“Apps because the Web is ever-evolving. The World Wide Web will migrate to smart phones and tablets and then by 2525 on to the next big thing. I love open source apps because people can always make them better.”
“If not by 2020 then very soon after the World Wide Web will go the way of Usenet or email—a sedimentary layer of or ancestral presence within the ever-expanding Internet, still in use for some things but increasingly limited or superseded by new developments. Apps will make sense especially when the ‘Internet of things’ reaches critical mass and more and more of the world becomes ‘smart’—access through almost any appliance, surface or screen.”
“I see truths in both options. I may be an old geezer on this one but I can’t see the World Wide Web just going away.”
“The unfolding of a ‘livable planet,’ starting with our personal space and community will depend more than ever on the identification and development of individuals at every stage of human endeavor. Changes in the world around us will be dependent on the development of group efforts that are characterized by trial and error, by wisdom, by the ability to induce change with something just isn’t working in the significant areas of our lives: education, medicine, job opportunities, and a sense of ‘belonging as a recognized human being capable of continuing change for the better,’ however that is defined. Human relationships built around defined common goals for positive change as envisioned, dissected, discussed, modified, and acted upon. This isn’t a Pollyanna view, but take a good look at the quality of life for most of our citizens currently losing their identities as ‘middle class’ and those who have no hope to even reach that stage. It isn’t just in cities, either; we need only look at our instantly transmitted news of the day. The tools of technology present the potential for untold good, but they are just tools and how they are used is an area that needs a great deal more exploration to teach us all of the possibilities and the realization of at least some of those.”
“Walled gardens will lose their appeal once consumers realize they are paying more for less (like AOL vs. the real Internet in the 1990s).”
“The Web is free. Apps and smartphone service plans are expensive. Also, anyone can create a website, while you need advanced development skills to create an app.”
“The open Web will weave like soft tissue through our lives and communities.”
“Apps are the individual experience of the Web. They are the conversations in the context of the medium, the Web. We do not embrace ‘Webness’ when playing a game or taking a photo—we are enjoying the specific experience. The Web will be stronger than ever and also more invisible, made manifest through the experience of interconnected apps.”
“Content will still be primarily gleaned from the open Web, which will evolve coding to make the open Web more useful for mobile computing and touchscreen devices.
“This will be the result of the demise of the desktop and laptop computer and the dominance of the tablet and mobile.”
“The Web will become more and more mature and accessible from anywhere. There will be hybrid of open Web and apps.”
“By 2020, people will start to realize that Web-based applications will be dominant over native applications. This will be due to the wide selection of operating systems and by creating Web-based applications it gives Web developers less projects to worry about. However, by 2020, apps will still play a vital role for mobile devices, and developers may deal with the extra work if they feel that selling their software is easier as a native application. For those who are technologically savvy, it makes more sense to have all-in-one cloud-based tools rather than separate tools for every function you can think of.”
“The Wild West Internet will remain popular because it seems likely that apps and controlled devices will only be available to those with the funds to purchase them, and many people will still prefer the Web- and Internet-based activities that are free and available openly to all.”
“The iPad has really taken hold of people’s imaginations, and it is very likely that apps will be the future. Already, in just the short amount of time that the iPad has been out, things have changed a great deal.”
“I feel very sorry about having to select the apps scenario, and if you want to understand why, read Douglas Rushkoff and others (like Jonathan Zittrain) who talk about the shift from homemade and participative to ready-made and consumption based.”
“I do not think that apps will be such a dominant role that they can overpower the Web. Sure they’re useful and all but they’re specialized products (for lack of a better word). The Web is all-encompassing.”
“I do not belief that one will outdo the other, but will serve different people for different types of uses.”
“Well the open Web would be my choice of outcomes but I am afraid the monopoly of international corporations will lead to the other outcome.”
“The open Web will be too big—people will want customization and individualization.”
“By nature, apps are a selection of the most-used tools. They are just like an improvement of tags.”
“The overwhelming majority of people, those outside of the tech world, probably don’t understand the difference between apps and the open Web. Which scenario dominates in 2020 will be a function of who dominates the market vs. concern for the openness of the Web. It will more like be influenced by the pressure and power of the open source tech community to keep it open.”
“The ‘openness’ of the Web will carry it forward as a primary network. If anything, websites and applications will become more app-like. That is to say, easier to use on mobile devices and better able to leverage on board features.”
“Not sure that apps vs. Web, but it’s more apps plus Web.”
“The World Wide Web will remain important for most developing-country users.”
“It is easier to use, sometimes a no-brainer. The Web though will continue to be the preferred place for more serious or capable searchers, and the exchange of more elaborate conversation.”
“Most likely apps will rule as they have customized their interface to hand-held devices, making focused use much easier. As long as browsing the Web on a hand-held device is unwieldy and time-consuming, apps will win out; especially with the prevalence of Apple and Google.”
“The Web is crumbling under the weight of aggregation sites that offer no true value. Google searches are becoming less and less useful. A trusted app with a good database behind it will rule. Wikipedia will be become an app too—in the sense that content will be designed to be viewed by a tablet device.”
“The determining factor will be the cost of data plans on smart phones.”
“As a matter of convenience, the apps will continue to grow. Why go to your computer to access the weather when you can look at an app? The key to the ongoing success of apps will be based on the ability of the companies to maintain security along with the ease of access.”
“While option one is definitely on its way, I don’t think it will be here by 2020. It will take a bit longer than that but it definitely will happen. But also, I don’t think the World Wide Web will die. There will always be a small percentage of people out there developing the next big disruptive thing and doing it on the World Wide Web.”
“The Web will continue to be popular because it offers an infinite variety of choices, even though less secure than individual apps.”
“The Web will dominate communication like books dominated reading.”
“The Web will be the reference room, the place you go to look things up. Apps will be the dominant means of interaction, since they are convenient, and easily deployed on mobile devices.”
“While I agree that the Web will be the dominant factor over apps in people’s lives overall, I do also think that in the subset of mobile device use, apps will reign supreme. Apps are the easiest way developers can make money on the Web, and that force is not trivial.”
“I think the apps scenario is already happening. I have had my iPad only eight months, and I cannot imagine life without it. It is probably the most life-changing tool I have, yet I cannot explain really why I need it. I just don’t want to live without it. I am not sure if this will lead to a diminishing return, but, if it does, something new will be created to take the place of the app. Change is inevitable and positive. Just like our bodies will evolve to use the technology, the technology will evolve to serve us better.”
“Apps will be around in 2020 but the buzz around them will be gone. They are useful in some situations, but people are starting to realize that there is a lot of fluff out there that is really a waste of people’s time. The Web just seems much more efficient to me.”
“Apps as we currently know them are simply price-loss-leaders, and that the cost of using them routinely will escalate as the dot-coms providing them have burned through their venture-capital cash and actually need to make them pay cash flow to the corporate coffers. We have seen this scenario play out several times already in the Internet, and the list of applications and free services is much greater than is the list of survivors.”
“The most open-source tools will prevail, with periodic rise and fall of trending proprietary products. This seems to follow the general evolution of the Internet: Monopolies emerge and then collapse, the pace of change is too fast to suit any particular business framework for very long.”
“The apps are very adjustable to each person’s existence for daily living. The Web has other strengths and will be more for research.”
“Cloud computing, storage, and applications will dominate the future—though never entirely demolishing apps and app stores. As fewer and fewer of us want to have large, clunky storage devices in our homes and in our tote bags, we will turn to the cloud and Web to handle our memory and app needs.”
“It’s not a very politically correct comparison, but I think we can compare the apps, social Internet, and related devices, and their relationship to the Web, and the ‘traditional’ Internet (if we can use that description for technology that is really very new) to the organization of a whaling fleet. There is a central factory ship, where the heavy processing takes place. Operating in support are squadrons of catcher boats who bring in the raw material to be processed. To be sure, these ‘catcher boats’ can do rather a lot of processing on their own. And so for small catches, they will probably not need to refer to the central factory ship at all, but merely deliver the finished product. Some large central repository of the catch (data) will still be needed.”
“Despite the rise of use of apps by corporations, and the need for those wanting to purchase from various companies to have such apps, I hope and believe that some form of inter-Web will still be important for many people. There is a need to communicate still, not only have one’s activities channeled via specific apps. There is still a need, in humans, for an agora, a communication space, and a place to meet, talk, make art, share, etc. Balance will demand it in people’s lives. I’m not sure what form the Web will take—perhaps there will be attempts to narrow it and survey it more closely.”
“People will use both apps and Web.”
“Honestly, I think it will be a mix of both.”
“Apps are the Tinker Toys of the information explosion. Everybody will use them and the simplest tasks will fall to them. However, as the power users become more and more proficient with their apps they will want more and more function and simple apps will not be enough. How the information derived from the apps will be combined is the important result that people will want and this type of analysis will require ever more powerful processing tools. Speech recognition, language translation, information retrieval, and the ability to guess at relationships between things, extraction of information from audio, video, text, drawings—these will continue to drive growth beyond simple apps.”
“The benefits of apps are many; however, the World Wide Web is extremely powerful.”
“The Web is going to be relegated to ‘book’ status for research. It’ll be like a continuously updated encyclopedia. Everything else will be done by apps.”
“This assumes that most computing will be done on smart devices, not laptops, and I am not sure how that is going to go.”
“Apps are platform-specific, and there will be too many platforms to deploy on. Web-based will remain the most cost effective and efficient for truly important apps.”
“I think people will realize that specific apps come and go, get updated, change and evolve as needs change; the real power is in the World Wide Web to be able to provide the connection to each other, the data storehouses, and the ability to transfer ideas and money nearly instantly anywhere in the world. The apps themselves are like changing clothes as your mood changes—a favorite one day may be easily replaced by an upstart competitor with a new way of solving the problem the next!”
“The Web is reaching the point where people will need to go back to services like AOL of the 1990s to find anything on it. We are returning to a time when the entire Web is difficult to search, we will have to instead trust a specific service provider to narrow our results to something that might be reasonably useful. This likely means that the Internet will become more expensive and less available to those without the financial means or infrastructure to access it (such as people in rural areas and developing countries.)”
“The younger generation is driven by ease. The idea of being able to have immediate access to accomplish life tasks is already seductive and popular. Industry will continue to drive this use.”
“Perhaps apps will provide some greater security, but I don’t know.”
“Search will proliferate, not be trumped by apps.”
“The distinction between the two will blur. Perhaps my understanding of the technical definition of an ‘app’ is poor. I can download something called a Facebook mobile application, and I can go to the Facebook website. Is Facebook an app or not? Is it both? I suppose my answer reflects that I think most websites will at least have corresponding applications to go with them, like Facebook.”
“Web is difficult to just hold in apps.”
“The dichotomous choice for ‘the’ answer is incorrect. They will both continue to exist and even flourish. There is no zero-sum game here.”
“The World Wide Web will definitely become stronger if Google keeps going in the direction it aims to reach. However, security questions such as those surrounding cloud computing and keeping all information in the cloud will be at the center of much debate. But if security can be assured, this is definitely where we are headed.”
“As the generation of app users ages, the use of smart devices and therefore specific apps will diminish. Reading off a four-inch screen, being forced to only have a piece of the puzzle will drive information users back the Web. Aging eyes and demand for a broader picture will drive information users.”
“The Web will continue to thrive with the continued development of many apps.”
“While prices for the devices will come down some, I think this issue will still be in transition by 2020, and the divide will be along financial lines —upper-end folks will do more work, play, etc., through apps; lower-income folks will remain on the open Web.”
“I do not see this as an either/or choice but rather the continued development of a blended model. The Apple, Google, and Amazon app model—where specific applications delivered on a variety of device platforms—will need to coexist with the basic Web model. We will continue to see the development of special purpose applications on hardware platforms—tablet/reader/mobile—leveraging the Internet for Cloud storage and collaboration and a significant amount of innovation will be directed at these platforms. But the universality and commonality of the Web will continue to serve as a driving force in innovation and development.”
“People are already starting to use apps more and the World Wide Web less, so there is reason that this pattern will continue into 2020. I don’t like this, though, because the World Wide Web is more social and people might lose their connections through Facebook. However, apps will be quicker to access and more convenient.”
“At this point, the Web has gone from a novelty to a commodity. There was a time when just having a dial-up connection was unique and powerful. Nowadays, it is the apps themselves that provide benefit—they use the Web as the workhorse to power them. As the Internet is being brought to more and more devices (mobile telephones, home-based devices, etc.), this is the clearest evidence that the Internet is a commodity or a service that more and more people are coming to take for granted.”
“The Web will continue to expand and will play an ever more important role in the social and political restructuring of the world.”
“There’s going to be a split between the groups, and I’m not sure which one will become more prevalent. And I don’t think there will be a clear winner that soon. The flexibility of the open Web will keep it being used (and the social implications of the Arab Spring and the Occupy Wall Street flash mob-politics are really not understood yet).”
“Apps, as indexed and siloed areas of the Internet, do not allow for the collaborative creation of online communities across platforms. Still, it is where the money is, and thus will possibly allow for the creation of further apps whose functionality is more compatible with future computing platforms and hardware.”
“I chose the second option because I believe it will be a both/and scenario, not an either/or scenario. The Web will be wide open, but so will app development and use.”
“The apparent differences between ‘apps’ and the Web will disappear. The question will be one of how you access the Web and for what purpose. Tablets show how the existing hardware continuum is leading to smaller and lighter, which is only to say that the app-using tool of today is tomorrow’s computer.”
“The Web will remain strong because, as much as we like to posit radical change and development of ever more complex apps and cloud usage, the reality is that even by 2020, our physical infrastructure related to the Internet will remain, at least in the United States, woefully inadequate to the task of making the use of such things as seamless and easy as they currently are on either personal computers or the Web.”
“I see apps as generally restrictive as they restrict whole entry to what is out there by their specificity and their sheer numbers.”
“Apps will grow, but I don’t think they will take over.”
“I am optimistically betting on better Internet security and privacy.”
“Apps are growing and will control more and more of people’s everyday, regular actions. The Web will still be the most common source for people to turn to for irregular actions. If I need to look up an entirely new subject, then I will still turn to the Web.”
“Apps will continue to expand their share of the average tech users time, but the Web will still play an important factor.”
“It is difficult to be confident that users will value the World Wide Web as a critical resource and value for their lives unless additional efforts are made to reach out to more users who are otherwise more likely to use their connectivity for more limited purposes.”
“The Web will always be a viable resource. Some people will have concerns that Google controls too much of one’s information and is a security risk.”
“Apps are the future, but they will not replace the Web, since those very apps use it to communicate. We already see this trend in websites that interact with mobile devices via protocols. As apps get smarter there will be more ‘apps as agents’ but they will rely on existing Web infrastructure.”
“Apps are a stepping stone to cloud-based communications. Nothing can beat the power of the open Web!”
“This is hopefully a utopian rather than a dystopian view but in spite of capitalism and corporatization of all things large and small, alternatives seem to emerge cyclically. Everyone thought Microsoft was a behemoth until Google and Apple (and now Facebook) have come around. If the populace is educated and can see through the system of controls, then this will utopia will be realized. It is clear that the mass populace is generally not as educated or can see through these things. One need only look at the recent Wall Street protests to realize that protests have been going on in other countries for years now and Americans are just waking up. Similarly the anti-trust legislation in the European Union is more awake than that in the United States and will sit on anything resembling a new behemoth. Thankfully the European Union sat on Vodaphone and the other mobile companies so using a smart phone between here (the United Kingdom) and Italy is almost the same now in terms of data charges. Access to the Internet via application will be more regulated and equal allowing open Web to flourish.”
“Just like any good toolbox, there is no ‘one-tool-does-all’ application or platform.”
“The Web and apps will meld together to provide a cohesive experience delivering just in time functionality whenever and wherever we happen to need it. People won’t distinguish Web and apps, they’ll just use what they need to get specific tasks completed.”
“I don’t know if I would say that the Web will be stronger than ever, but I think that it will still have a place. Apps and devices are great, but have many limitations; among them the size or lack of a keyboard, the size of the screen, the number of devices we need to have to get all these features. I like my iPad but it can’t do everything.”
“Most users will (and do) want what works. While there are a small number of users who will want access, control, and the ability to manipulate their computer environments, catering to this group will not prove economically viable. The open-source community will cater to this group. However, companies like Apple, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft will develop technologies that enable users to accomplish tasks, whether they be centered in an app environment, or a browser environment. It is difficult to say how users will eventually gravitate, but, given the growth and fragmenting of the open Web, I would guess that users would want some helpful guides, which could be provided by apps.”
“Apps will still remain to be specialized, focused in specific functionalities. The generic and versatile Web will continue to evolve in two streams: one, app-like, easy to use; the other, open Web.”
“Apps are popular, but they have limited use. The Web provides unlimited options and will prevail once the apps fad passes.”
“The Web already starts to feel clunky as the usage of apps continues to grow. Apps will likely become more imbedded into the Web—in essence the Web will deliver apps. It’s already happening. But because of customization, personalization, and scalability—apps will rule.”
“Apps will become more popular. People don’t really like to have too many choices. It is too demanding on your brain. By the time you are 21, you’ve figured out if you are a Coke or Pepsi person. You know what grocery store you like, where you like to purchase your entertainment. You have your email account. My husband still has his Juno account. Apps are easy. You will download the apps for the services you already use. Your bank, your email, your Facebook, etc. You might hear of something new from a friend, and on that recommendation you might try a new app. To access that service, you just open it up. You don’t need to bookmark it. Chances are, it is already authenticated because it is on your device. The only real problem is that if you are on someone else’s device, you are sunk. It is like when people come to the public library and are confused because the homepage is not what’s on their home computer. How do I get to my email? So, there will be difficulties with not having your own device.”
“Although apps are extremely useful for specific tasks—keeping track of calories, listening to your favorite song, etc.—they are also very limited. People like that they can go to the open Web and access everything. I think the Web will continue to play a key role in our lives through 2020, even as the number of apps on our phones, tablets, and even pcs continue to grow.”
“Making an app for every single OS in the market is a pain. So open (and mobile) Web should win.”
“The Web as the ‘glue’ that holds things together will still be strong, as it doesn’t stand still but continues to develop.”
“This one is hard to predict because of the possible advances in technology and user perception that could occur. For example, the number of devices and means of access for apps could expand, making these self-contained and cohesive groups of features and content more pervasive and ubiquitous. Or, the underlying technologies behind the World Wide Web could be enhanced to the point that developers, and ultimately users, have greater capabilities deploying mobile and desktop Web solutions.”
“Trying to choose from 300,000 plus apps is a headache for anyone.”
“Apps are amazing but I don’t believe they will overtake the Web. The Web is a more open format with a smaller barrier to entry. We don’t have enough programmers and money to overtake all of the current websites with apps. There is too much knowledge required to program for iOS, Android, etc. It’s not easy and it can’t be taught in a four hour workshop like basic HTML/CSS.”
“Both will be happening. This world is big and will include multiple types of technology and users.”
“To be honest, I just don’t know how to answer this. The World Wide Web is absolutely necessary in making some apps happen. But, it may evolve into a supporting platform rather than the more visible ‘webpages’ that we see (though that is not the only part of the World Wide Web). Apps seem nice and convenient, cool and sexy right now. But that could change with some type of unforeseeable event (a security breach)? The proprietary nature of apps seems to invite boundary testing. The open nature of IP, allows for much greater flexibility and adaptability. I just can’t prognosticate this one.”
“The apps will become more popular because of the ease of use, the possibility to put them on a device that can be used literally anywhere, and the new possibilities apps are giving.”
“After the initial rush of excitement about applications, companies quickly realized that it was way too much work and expense to maintain separate applications for multiple platforms. They also discovered that the company behind the platform could easily hold them hostage and demand a portion of any proceeds they made using that platform. At the same time, HTML5 became widely available and was able to reproduce many of the capabilities of the native apps.”
“Again, the future reality lies in-between these two statements. The Internet is and always will be a transport or a content delivery platform.”
“Apps will continue to have a better user experience, but more importantly, 2020 is too soon for the next Google to come along to make discovery of mobile websites easy. App Stores are working well to showcase, discover, and monetize apps, and the Web has no good equivalent.”
“Trend watchers have acknowledged that Internet search activities on mobile devices via apps now stands at approximately one in seven of all Web searches; the number is only increasing. Apps are the way of the future, although generic search systems on home computer systems will continue to be used, of course. The convenience of apps cannot be ignored. I love them.”
“Considering what will happen to the world, not limiting to the United States, I think the second one will be more likely to happen. Also, using apps makes it sometimes really hard to access the other resources.”
“The introduction of HTML5 and the ability to make the open Web app-like, coupled with the improvements in search technology, will restore parity between the apps and the open Web application experience.”
“HTML5 has already begun the transition away from apps and to the open Web. QR codes, for example, will transfer users to specific mobile Web locations. Web-based apps will prevail, and overall Web browsing will decrease giving way to search, Web-based apps, and social portals.”
“Apps and their evolving development and use allow people to create a customized online experience. While the broader Web has use and appeal, people will prefer the capabilities of apps to meet their specific needs.”
“I don’t really think about a difference between the two, honestly. If something is software as a service isn’t it accessed via the Web?”
“Both ideas are valid. The Web will still be very important and apps will gain more and more traction.”
“I find myself a bit confused by the question, given that many of apps running on smartphones and tablets are not isolated, independent programmes but applications whose job it is to access Web content and deliver it to the user in some form. Various locator apps rely on Google Maps, iTunes, and Kindle apps to connect to Web-based stores, etc. At the moment, there’s an IT industry tendency to push everyone towards ‘cloud’ applications but even these depend for their operation on the powerful Web servers which actually hold and process the data. It’s true that in 2011, it looks as if Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft were in competition trying to find a means of cutting their users off from the rest of the Internet to maximize their own earnings. Personally, I doubt any of them can succeed at this without locking the public into unhackable devices with digital locks more effective than any now known. Meanwhile, there are plenty of precedents to indicate such a move would draw an awful lot of criticism from the public and some very nasty lawsuits from competitors.”
“I am not an app user nor do I fully utilize my smart phone. I am old-school in that manner. I do not like being disturbed by emails while driving and I just accepted the text messaging service about one year ago. I do not like paying the fees for the data package when I have a computer at home and at work. I am unusual in this way but I still like to search for what I want. I love real books and like the feel of going from cover to cover. Some people like me are old-fashioned and may not change their habits or thriftiness.”
“While I love the rich user experience of many apps, the World Wide Web will win out. This topic choice is complicated by many factors, not the least of which is company behaviour. Recent revelations about Apple favouring apps to Web apps (through differences in performance), for example, and the long-standing ban on Flash on iPad and iPhone show some of these manipulations (as does Apple now refusing to allow users to buy Kindle e-books directly through the Kindle iPad or iPhone app, presumably because of competition with their iBooks). The Web will continue to be more important in people’s lives. It is much more open to everyone. Anyone can put up a website. This means that users need to be more critical of the information on the World Wide Web, but it is free and open, and I control the information I put on my website (providing I don’t breach any laws that invite some authority to control it). The Web is much more collaborative and can really make use of the collective experience. I think useful apps will focus on ‘collecting’ the Web information and social networks we want to access (i.e., Flipboard) to make the experience quicker and easier. Lastly, apps need to be updated, sometimes at a cost.”
“I hope for the open Web option. I fear the option I didn’t choose may come to pass.”
“I see the World Wide Web continuing to be an important part of users’ lives. Apps will provide access to specialized options. The more apps that can integrate and aggregate multiple tasks and multiple websites, the more popular they will be. People are generally inquisitive and want to create and explore. The Internet offers this.”
“This is a tough question. It’s clear that Apple, Google, Amazon, and the cell carriers are attempting to control how their devices access the online, and what their users get access to through their proprietary apps, and apps they force on to devices. It appears at the moment to be working for them, however there may come a day when they see a backlash when the public finally sees that they are being guided to make choices and purchases by these entities. It would be my hope that the open market that the Internet enables will prevail—but sadly I think that youngsters are not predisposed to think about the issues of going with the flow.”
“Apps will make a significant impact, but with the development of cloud-based computing, there will be more reliance on the Web and activities of apps will be available in that manner.”
“Hopefully there will still be the open Web.”
“While I think it will be a combination of the two, new apps are very helpful. Although it takes longer to find certain data on the World Wide Web, I personally can’t stand the small hand-held tools. Besides, typing with my thumbs? No, not for me.”
“People will prefer to have a one-stop shop rather than constantly adding to their app toolboxes. That’s too much trouble.”
“I don’t see the open Web diminishing. Apps and devices don’t meet the same information needs as the open Web. There is more information and more variables on the open Web. Also, I don’t see a single platform or device ever being completely dominant yet. The cost of the devices is still prohibitive for many individuals and how many should one own? In my family we have, two iPhones, one iPad, one Kindle, one Blackberry, four laptops, and a desktop. Each meet different needs at different times and are often used simultaneously.”
“As HTML5 becomes established as a standard, developers will switch to building native Web apps rather than building for each individual platform. As Apple loses out to Android and those who have invested in apps get worried about the sustainability of their investments, the pressure to adopt an open standard (HTML5 Web apps) will increase. However, app stores will continue to be a significant part of the landscape—even if simply selling packaged Web apps. Consumers will value the editorial oversight provided by app stores, and fear about security, viruses, etc. will drive consolidation in this market.”
“Given the current economic state and the costs of producing mobile apps, the Web will still be a huge part of peoples lives in 2020. There is still a large gap between those who can afford to create apps and the amount of content available for ‘free’ on the Web. The will eventually close up, but I do not see this happening quickly without companies and the public willing to invests money in this transition.”
“As long as apps stay inventive and grow more elaborate as the years progress, then apps will overtake the Web because of security and for their creativity.”
“The apps model will flourish because these actors have a commercial interest in promoting that model. There are no major actors with commercial interest in promoting the open Web. Historically, the Web itself took off when commercial activity was allowed on it. Commerce will continue to drive innovation in this space.”
“I choose Web but only by a smidge—this is a grey zone for sure. Applications make it easier for those not native to electronic communications and commerce to gain digital skills they are by design, biased. The open Web will continue to be a place of equalization.”
“Apps will supersede the Web. This will appear to emphasize individuality but apps themselves are premised on a series of presumptions that do not emphasize individuality.”
“I don’t know much about apps and how people use them. I have a few and a smartphone but apps just slow it down. I don’t think there’s any stopping the Web, but I think there will be a backlash of people who go ‘off the grid’—like Internet hippies.”
“Apps do one thing well, which is highly desirable in almost all circumstances. Web browsers were an interim platform that will now be obviated. The next step is wiring apps together to do more complex tasks. We are re-living the fundamentals of Unix.”
“This will allow providers greater control over access to information, opinion formation, and political processes.”
“I want the second but what I see already is the first. The World Wide Web is too big and out of control—it’s hard to narrow down credible specific information. We need apps that do it for us. Who has the time and knowledge to pick the wheat from the chaff? I’ll willingly pay $3.99 for an application that delivers exactly what I want reliably.”
“Apps are but a portion of what the Internet can do. The Internet will be required to get the whole of information. Apps are narrower selections targeted to a specific selection.”
“I agree that for personal devices apps will become increasingly important. However, the open Web will retain its utility for general information searches.”
“Innovation and competition are thriving in the app market. Unless the open Web keeps up, apps are where we’re going.”
“It’s hard to say whether apps are just a fad; they have mostly been drivers to move the public to use mobile devices.”
“Again, unless the devices and usage plans drop significantly, people will direct their efforts toward the most free system of communication available to them. Internet access is more so this way through non-apps.”
“I do not think that the info out there will be limited to apps. There is too much in too many formats, and too many people who need the Web to convey their messages.”
“I find myself using both and not shunning either. That being said—I’m generally for more open communication regardless of what technology is generating.”
“It is already clear that a creative, inquisitive minority will use the Web, relying on apps for other parts of their life, whereas the majority will have no use for the Web itself.”
“The 2020 future is somewhere between these two paragraphs, but I don’t think the Web will be significantly less important than it is now.”
“Both trends will occur simultaneously. In part, there will be (at least) two Internet economies and worlds—one for those with the resources to use increasingly expensive apps and one for those with diminished resources. Cybercrimes and security breaches will negatively impact both Internet economies, but in different and unexpected ways.”
“I don’t think people will reduce their options only to apps. Both World Wide Web and apps will continue evolving in parallel.”
“Apps will be essential. A Web free of data spying will become welcomed.”
“We seem to be moving toward apps due to mobile use.”
“People like apps.”
“The distinction between apps and the Web will completely disappear.”
“Both worlds will live together, because they will point to different points and needs of human beings. The apps will be updating, reinventing, changing depending of needs of new targets context, while the Web will move into the big cloud, where people will keep their projects, experiences, lives. Companies will move in both directions, or choose one. But they will be players for both.”
“Although there will be a tough competition between the open Internet and the more closed world of apps, it seems that the World Wide Web offers most people more choice and they prefer to make their selections by themselves, compared to the pre-selected world of apps. For the industry, the apps offer better financial incentives and many service providers will concentrate on apps, but the winners are probably those who offer their services on both worlds.”
“It all depends on how quickly Web standards get established and adopted. We have talked about HTML5 for years now, and it still is not fully adopted. How long before HTML6? HTML is a limitation and it moves too slow.”
“Neither is really correct. A lot of apps will really be HTML5 (6?) webpages, the only real app will be some cookies and URLs, some personal data store. There will be real apps (games, etc.) but mostly it will be the Web, but it won;t seem like the Web of today. Most people will think they are running an app.”
“There will be a divide between the two groups. There will be a huge increase in the number who begin to view their mobile devices as a means to simplify their lives while a large number will never invest in anything beyond Web-access devices. Because those that continue to keep up with new technology will start using apps and devices to communicate, there may be a similar divide emerging such as what currently exists between those that use land-line phones and the postal system and those that currently have smart phones and communicate by texting, etc.”
“I don’t think the creation of apps will diminish the utility of the open Web, and this is because product innovation requires an unmediated space for early creation, and for the apps designers, that is the open Web. Furthermore, it is far more financially feasible for a company to produce lots of apps designed for obsolescence rather than to invest in the creation of long-standing applications. Many people will continue to purchase handhelds as they might purchase fashionable clothing or snacks, but that they will recycle out those handhelds and the accompanying apps as long as new trends in tech, fashion, and dining come along.”
“We will be able to have more customized and personalized experiences but will still want to surf the Web.”
“Apps will continue to rise rapidly in adoption and the open Web will become less relevant, especially for behavior related to personal and social interests.”
“The rise of apps reminds us that the flow of data through the Internet is the real vehicle for many of the changes brought by the technology—not the specific delivery mechanism of the World Wide Web. While the Web itself can continue to grow and offer improved facilities for the interface, apps represent the opportunity for limitless experimentation in platforms for interaction.”
“Both are equally important for different functions and one will, therefore, not exclude the other.”
“Apps afford things like notifications and specialized features. These services are becoming more and more invaluable. Plus, devices that support apps, like iPads, smartphones, and Kindles, can be customized, becoming exactly what the user needs. Customization, however, has its downfalls. When we choose to only see exactly what we want, we often miss out on other things that we may have stumbled upon before. It’s like always taking the same driving route through a city, you become very familiar with that path, but have no knowledge of what lies outside of its boundaries. There is something to be said of being a flaneur in the city or on the World Wide Web.”
“The Web is a thread that holds us together. As long as there is electricity, there will be a Web.”
“A lot of apps are already starting to blend the two options given here. While native API’s are necessary to harness the power of the smartphone capabilities most display, content, and UI will ultimately be delivered via the Internet where scale is much more cost effective and development more nimble.”
“The world will move to the mobility of apps on smaller, more mobile devices. The third world and a good portion of the first world has only mobile devices now—no computers! That trend will continue, both because of cost of devices and mobility.”
“Apps will continue to be a critical element of the information ecosystem as devices are used for brief (but known) tasks and events. For purposes of discovery, for finding the information or appropriate source for topics and resources not familiar to the user, the open Web will still be important.”
“The options are overly dramatic, but over time everything will be service-based, with the more powerful interfaces being HTML5 Web-based applications and mashups for computer users, and with more specialized interfaces suitable for mobile devices (e.g. Siri’s voice control, RSS newsreaders, etc.) presented as apps. If HTML5 continues to develop, and more and more mobile functionality is integrated into the browser runtime, it’s likely that in terms of technology, applications can be presented by HTML interfaces tuned for mobile devices, displacing native apps, but that the way that they behave and are used by users will be specialized mobile apps, as distinct from the World Wide Web.”
“A synthesis of these two theories will be what takes place. The World Wide Web is a connection of information that has assembled itself as a result of humanity pushing the boundaries further. We have collected a database of personal information (Facebook), databases of knowledge (Wikipedia), a framework of computing (cloud-based services and apps), and search engines. These, I see, as a developing focal point of the Internet’s eventual framework of existence, that is, Face-book will be like a protocol used in a computer’s inner workings, due to the information it contains, but would not be a focal part of the Internet’s usage, merely a reference point for apps, etc. to converge on and output relevant information to the application at hand. People’s personal information would be included in what could be seen as a ‘personal control panel’ of sorts, which would be privacy sensitive, and customizable. In this way, one could customize the level of privacy delivered to a private entity, a public entity, or a government entity (entity being any agent, whether user or computer based, such as apps) and be in complete control over their information on the Internet. In essence, I see the developing World Wide Web as a framework, or natural coding, which will be utilized by futuristic applications.”
“It will take longer for apps to outdo the Web as a majority of people now use the Web over apps. The Web will be going strong for a long time to come.”
“The apps will continue to grow and thrive, and that for a time, the portal theory and closed nature of the Internet will thrive (i.e., apps or the Facebooking of everything). But just as previous walled gardens fell, the need for information which is less filtered and more authentic will eventually thrive—it may be that someone has to create an app to let users access the broader Web than that to which they have grown accustomed.”
“It seems to me that these two will become one in the next few rounds of evolutions.”
“Apps versus Web is a close call—there will be an expansion in both, but whether on balance ‘most people’ will prefer one to the other most of the time is a close call in my opinion. I do think the choice will not be binary; almost no one will use ‘all apps’ or ‘all Web.’ To me, a more interesting question is what percentage of the data and processing will be ‘local’ versus ‘remote.’ The pendulum swings back and forth between ‘personal’ computing and ‘cloud/timesharing’ computing. Here again, I suspect certain activities and certain data will be largely local, and others will be largely remote, depending on size, amount of computation, etc. So the answer is both will grow; whether one is larger than the other need not matter so much.”
“Security is a big threat. Just passwords won’t be enough. Fingerprints and iris scans are essential. Voice scans are not that reliable.”
“Open Web is platform-agnostic, whereas the apps all come with an attached IP and walled garden. Whereas the walled gardens are good when thriving, the lack of access to other areas can dry these and let them devoid of content quite rapidly, thus letting content back into the open Web. Apps might be pervasive for proprietary content and applications, but the open Web will also have a new interface (we hope) and enhanced mobility.”
“Open standards will win out in the long run. World Wide Web is a proxy for those—there may be other open standards that dominate (or share domination) in 2020.”
“Corporations will direct and determine social policy. The hardware and applications that are available to you when you are young will determine your potential and societal importance.”
“Apps and the Web will mean different things to different people. What’s most important is that information—whether business or pleasure—is available any time, from any location on any device. HTML 5 and mobile ready websites should help make the Web more accessible on phones and tablets and reduce the need for tailored apps. A mobile-ready site is possibly more cost effective than developing an app. There is a place for both—evolution, not revolution.”
“Apps will continue to grow and allow consumers to access the data they need without searching websites that are badly designed.”
“Apps guard the Internet’s safety while the World Wide Web is an open place for abundant resources but it is neither easy nor safe to find the exact resource you expect. While apps are of high quality-assurance, and so far I find them more effective than the World Wide Web.”
“This is a spurious distinction. Both will co-exist.”
“This question was very, very hard. As far as I can tell, it’s the one that has the highest number of tangential influences guiding us to the future. What will be the role of corporations in everyday life? What will be the role of ISPs in the price and availability of bandwidth? What copyright and sharing regulations passed by the governments will have an impact? What will the future of devices bring—a small multiple-use device, or multiple devices to serve different purposes? I’m not sure how these issues will turn out, so I can’t make as definitive a statement as I did with earlier questions. But I think that adoption of HTML5 will revolutionize the Web and diminish the usefulness of individual apps except for specialized convenience services for certain devices or based on personal preference.”
“I suspect apps will do two things. They will provide a way to monetize Web content, which business has been striving to do for some time, and they will provide a filter for Web content. The filter aspect concerns me most. It can be good in some cases—acting as an ‘editor’ for content, they are clearly useful aggregators. However, they also have the potential to control access to information in insidious ways. I fear this generation will look back on the last 15 years as the golden age of information where so much was freely available that in the future they will have to pay for.”
“Are you trying to bum me out on purpose? Apps are so convenient and safe, and, more important, they are so much to the economic advantage of the hardware providers, that they will be relentlessly pushed on us ‘for our own convenience.’ Going outside your computing device’s app store will void your warranty and probably alert Homeland Security.”
“I lean towards the first option, but can we really know how we will be accessing online information in 2020? Five years ago we wouldn’t have thought of apps.”
“In 2020, the World Wide Web is stronger than ever in users’ lives. The open Web continues to thrive and grow as a vibrant place where most people do most of their work, play, communication, and content creation. Apps accessed through iPads, Kindles, Nooks, smartphones, Droid devices, and their progeny—the online tools GigaOM referred to as ‘the anti-Internet’—will be useful as specialized options for a finite number of information and entertainment functions. There will be a widespread belief that, compared to apps, the Web is more important and useful and is the dominant factor in people’s lives.”
“There are two major players here, and over time the apps will take over—but not by 2020. The migration from laptops and PCs to handheld devices is happening, but the one thing that slows this is usability. Phones are still difficult to use for business process. The keyboards and screens are still too small in 2020 and this still divides the consumer.”
“Sadly, I think convenience will trump the open Web.”
“Democratic access to information and tools to create new applications and content will always be the norm. There is already momentum and an expectation that the Web is distributed and anyone can contribute to it. The incremental contributions of people around the world are what make the Web so powerful and great. The Web is a place that updates itself because so many people are contributing content, whereas, in the app world, even with open source tools, a smaller handful of skilled programmers are creating applications. Also, there is a curiosity factor—people want to see what other people are doing, thinking, publishing, and listening to. So the Web serves this social function even in the absence of apps (other than a Web browser).”
“Apps that use the Web will explode. Once Apple reinvents the TV, there will be a whole new app and Web revolution.”
“Apps only win if the open Internet cannot be secured.”
“Apps are great, but the World Wide Web won’t ever be usurped.”
“Apps will play a significant role but will always rely on a World Wide Web as its foundation.”
“It’s neither. This is not a zero-sum game. Both will persist and thrive.”
“Different people like different methods of interacting with the Internet. I have met plenty of people who miss using line commands for DOS (I kind of miss it too—the exactitude one could achieve was satisfying). So while some people will be happy to use apps, those of us more sophisticated might use a variety of means of interacting with the Internet.”
“I actually don’t think it is an either/or. I think many forms of interaction with data and services will emerge and anything that is easy to use and gets people the information and services they want in real time will likely be successful. A key issue missed in this scenario is the role of interfaces for devices—how we interact with devices. This is a key factor in the spread and use of services. And voice as a tool for interacting with devices can’t be ignored. It will likely emerge again (it already is with Siri) and it may soon be possible for computers to respond to real questions with the right answers. This sorts of services may well compete with apps as a way to get to the places and services we want.”
“I would add libraries as a filter/app developer for access to organized information, cultural materials, and resources.”
“This is like Coke vs. Pepsi in the 1980s. Or will it be like VHS vs. Betamax? It’s hard to call who wins this war. I lean to the app side, but only by the slightest margin.”
“The first option is coming but eight years may not see the widespread use of apps for everything.”
“Apps are becoming increasingly important, especially as speed becomes more important to most people. In general, I view this as a corollary of a general ‘dumbing down’ effect, where apps are simply easier for the general populace to use.”
“Only true with the current crop of apps. Eight years ago, apps didn’t exist. Eight years from now, their capabilities and desirability may well far exceed what we can imagine. The only thing I see saving the Web is links between the Web and human brains. If the brain, a magnificent generalist, can be directly connected to the Web, the need for apps will disappear—unless they become servant avatars.”
“The clarity of focus of apps will steer specific users with specific needs to specific apps that best satisfy them.”
“We’ll see a hybrid—the ‘appization’ of the open Web.”
“There will be more of a blending than an either-or situation.”
“Apps are a stepping stone. They are by nature difficult to share between and very siloed, which is the opposite and the strength of the Web.”
“I see a lot of places starting to move away from platform-specific apps, and instead embracing mobile websites. The reliance on the World Wide Web will be even stronger.”
“There will continue to be a hybrid consisting of a myriad of new applications deployed and accessible via the Web. However, the free nature of the Web may change as privacy advocates seek to rein in the use of behavioral advertising and interactive advertising as a business model. If this occurs, it is likely that fees will be imposed by providers—not unlike what the New York Times recently embarked on—and states suffering from a loss of revenue will no doubt look to the Web as another source of revenue. Indeed, states now believe brick and mortar shops are bearing the brunt of taxation while e-businesses may have a competitive edge by the tax-free nature of the Web.”
“Everything already is going mobile. But, a lot of our mobile apps are tethered to Internet sites and programs. I believe both will continue to work in tandem. This may be why the iPad has been such a big hit.”
“The essential characteristic of the Internet is its mass and anarchic interconnectedness. I foresee a fusion of the app world and the Web, where apps function along the lines of a deeply interconnected and easily navigable Web. The website may not look quite the same, but remember—there was the Web before the website.”
“Apps will help navigate the Web, but the need to search more generally will always be there.”
“People desire smaller, self-contained things, just as people are excited about iPads and iPhones, not desktop computers and network servers. The important thing, no matter what, is that the Web and apps have open-source programming that allows people to collaborate and customize their experiences. Amazon and Google apps will hopefully fade, while MediaGoblin and the like become more prominent. But, then again, Google and Amazon sell things—so they’ll win as long as we live in a hyper-consumerist culture.”
“Not sure—but with the issues of OS (Apple vs. Android vs. Windows vs. Linux), the Web is a central location and will remain important.”
“People love apps because they are hand-held and transportable. Also, by nature, people want the new things. Pretty soon, the World Wide Web is going to be old news. Today you’re not awesome if you can create a webpage (which has been made simple by ‘what you see is what you get’ editors), you’re awesome if you can create apps. Is this a good section to discuss single-service devices? Because by 2020, I think any single-service device will be completely wiped out (bye-bye to television sets).”
“There is not a sustainable economic model for the ‘openness’ of the Web to prevail against more functional proprietary platforms that also utilize Web resources. Both will continue, but I see more people using apps rather than rolling their own Web experience.”
“The trend toward personalized experiences and access to tailored information sources will continue. The desire to self-curate or to rely on trusted services for filtering will grow.”
“Although, personally, I would like to see the second scenario materializing, I find it hard to envision that unless the current trend is changed. The trends toward dumbing down the Web for simple (or even simplistic) and controlled tasks in the name of ‘quality assurance’ go hand-in-hand with the shortening attention span and discouraging sustainable thought. I envision this again being an elite vs. masses issues, where technical elites will reside in the open Web or its variation, but the vast majority of the population is experiencing a fraction of that freedom through tightly controlled apps.”
“Application will become the main mode of communication and access to Internet. People already bypass Internet for application access. This causes issues of security and the scope of applications. People browse the Internet but if one uses only an application they will only be exposed to that application’s views. People are still attached to laptops and computers regardless of the prevalence of iPads and cellphones.”
“The open Web is a fluid space that many people are comfortable with to spent the majority of their day, apps are an exciting trend but because their tools are limited they will not become the central place for online interaction.”
“The jury is still out on this, but as mobile becomes the dominant way we access the Internet over desktop use, apps will be the easiest way to get at information we need. Curated information and tools will allow us to spend more time doing useful things and less time simply browsing. As Web usability guru Gerry McGovern says, we get in a taxi to reach a destination not for the ride, just as with a Web search, we want answers not just search.”
“This is essentially the case now. ‘Websites’ are essentially apps already.”
“Apps when you’re away from your desk/home/office. Web and its ilk when you have access to a larger, easier to read screen and easier to use input device (i.e., keyboard). Voice recognition is great way to overcome the input problems that you have on mobile (not just typos, but size of screen is a factor here) but the accuracy just isn’t there yet, and (big problem here) people really don’t want everyone around hearing what you’re saying when you are in public. Using voice recognition is different from a phone call—there is no short hand, and when there is background noise, the words just plain get garbled.”
“The Web will be more important and useful in relation to applications because the best apps are specific in their objective. They don’t try to do too much. In ten years the open Web will thrive and grow as a vibrant place where most people do most of their work, play, communication, and content creation.”
“Pirate uses of the Web will remain.”
“New devices could pop between now and then, and revolutionize the way we use the Internet in the same ways that the iPhone did. As technology changes and reshapes the way we surf the Web, the devices we use to do so will change along with it.”
“Apps are convenient because they’re so clean and easy to use, especially on a small screen, but the Web offers so much more, which is great when you’re working with a full screen. Coin toss on this one.”
“Apps will prosper over the open Web because of their specialized nature. You can develop an application for any specialized need, which, because of the specialized need, people will be more likely to attribute value to it and pay for it. It’s all about the monetization. The open Web is not easily monetized but apps have a perceived value that people are willing to pay for.”
“The Web will continue to be important because it is a vehicle for people to learn about new things. Apps are to help people get through the day, not navigate a lifetime. With the development of mobile devices, apps will become increasingly important, but they will not dominate the landscape.”
“Perhaps the cloud should be considered here, which is neither the current ‘Web,’ not consisting entirely of ‘apps.’ Something in-between, or completely new, will be the ‘host.’”
“Websites will evolve to communities of information, and visiting them will be a full experience. Apps will continue to be the source of personal computing. There is plenty of room for both.”
“App development and adoption is a step in the evolution of the Web. But it is not the latest, greatest, or last development. Who knows what those next developments will be, but they will not necessarily be tightly linked to apps.”
“The Internet is the land of the ‘free’ and will keep the Web alive. Apps that cost money interfere with the seamlessness of the Web and our fickle natures.”
“The consumer world is quickly moving toward the portability of mobile devices, inadequate though they are.”
“Apps have their place and will become more important over time, but unless they change significantly, they are very focused on their purpose. The Internet is more open and allows us to search for numerous things.”
“Neither. They will increasingly work in concert with each other. Competition is a straw man.”
“The problem with apps is that they are platform specific. There will be Web apps, not as many computer apps. Development is heading toward HTML5. Look at all the Chrome apps.”
“Web will be the winner but the Web user will be the loser—losing his humane or natural side and becoming a heartless robot.”
“Apps and the use of the World Wide Web will experience parallel development. I can’t see either one taking over because they have different purposes.”
“Money drives the market, and content creators will be driven to specific apps to generate cash flow.”
“I chose the second option because I believe the World Wide Web is, and will continue to be, the means of connectedness and group collaboration.”
“The line between app and what you are calling the Web will have blurred, and the Web will be stronger than ever. Also, watch for devices like tablets to have gone away in favor of convergence into other devices.”
“I see apps as a passing trend because they must be customized to the application and are not usable by Joe Average. If they can make a generic app for each type of activity then fine, it may survive. Until then it’s just more IT hype about an unproven technology with a shaky business model. What really drives the Web is communications and connectivity more than ability to use it for business. It’s an extension of phones in a way. Business hates that and wants to monetize every aspect of the Web, ergo cloud apps, but I just don’t see them getting total control.”
“I selected the apps because the day of the apps is already under way and started with the first search engine.”
“The Web becomes simply the backbone that enables people to use the apps they need. What the Web needs is more and faster connections and greater and more reliable cloud storage.”
“Too much money to be made, too few people who understand what gets lost when we go back to ‘walled gardens.’ The open Web will predominate only in the business-to-business and intranet markets.”
“In 2020, the fashion of Apple and handheld devices will evaporate as prices force many out of the market. So many apps will have been developed by 2020 that it’s too fractured, too complex. “I am a website developer and data analyst, and even I am surfeited by what’s out there. The positives will be that apps become transparent and platform-independent. The negative of media classes forming over price is that those who can least afford them will pay heavily for the cache of portable device apps.”
“Prices will not have come down enough or supply plentiful enough by 2020; again, maybe 2030.”
“Apps will be great but the more open concept of the cloud will rule. One big reason will be that at people’s workplaces the cloud will be where they operate. Apps will perform functions, but there are a limited number of apps people can control and use.”
“Hard to say. I could choose either scenario. Here is a useful illustration: Apps are the gated community, the Internet is downtown or maybe even the red light district. Some people want only one of those scenarios but most, I suspect, want a little of both.”
“The power of the Internet is that of openness—both in terms of the information available and the standards on which the Internet has been developed. Apps will gain a higher share of usage, but it won’t supplant the flexible nature of the broader Web.”
“The Web is an extension of the client-server model of computing with low-cost nodes connecting to centralized core nodes. Apps have pizazz, but Web apps have longevity due to minimal edge node requirements; apps require specific hardware and software, while the Web just requires a browser.”
“Centralize, decentralize. I’ve seen the cycle several times now. This is just the next iteration. Cost is a big factor here.”
“They both will thrive. Apps for a richer experience, Web for wider, broader uses.”
“Commercial forces will undercut the open Web.”
“I am not at all sure about this one. I doubt it’s one or the other.”
“As more content shifts to cloud storage and issues like standardized formats and access remain important, the open Web will continue to thrive.”
“Apps will win. This is against our collective benefit, but short-term self-interest is winning the day.”
“I do not agree with either option. I believe apps will be dominant yet the Web will still be needed for searching and discovering information.”
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